Cleveland Guardians offseason outlook: starting rotation

The Cleveland Guardians' starting rotation was somewhat of a mixed bag in 2022. They finished with the tenth-best starters' ERA in MLB at 3.73, but ranked just 17th in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), a stat meant to eliminate variables that the pitcher has less control over. Their top three starters (Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, and Cal Quantrill) all pitched to career low strikeout rates, and depended on the Guardians' elite defense, which helps to account for the FIP discrepancy, since that stat is influenced heavily by strikeout rates.

Cleveland's top three carried the rotation the whole year, with Bieber leading the AL in innings pitched, and McKenzie growing into a force down the stretch. However, entering the playoffs, Sports Illustrated ranked them the lowest of any rotation among playoff teams.

Overall, they are a deep, young group that is in good shape to help them remain competitive for years to come. That being said, look for Guardians GM Mike Chernoff to be opportunistic with moves to improve this group during the offseason.

Guardians Rotation Locks

Three starters provided stability and excellence throughout 2022 and should be viewed as locks to lead the rotation again in 2023 barring a blockbuster trade.

27-year-old ace Shane Bieber remade himself somewhat in 2022. Bieber was an All-Star in 2019 and 2021, and a Cy Young winner in the COVID-19-shortened 2020 season, when he led the league in strikeouts, wins and ERA.

This year, pitching with decreased velocity and a career-low strikeout rate, Bieber led the American League with 200 innings pitched, providing stability and dependability at the front of baseball’s youngest rotation. He finished with a 13-8 record and 2.88 ERA, winning his first Gold Glove Award. Expect trade whispers to continue as his salary continues to increase via arbitration, but also realize that the Guardians have shown a willingness to keep core players around in order to remain competitive, and the dependable excellence of Bieber will be hard to replace via trade, and impossible to replace at a similar cost through free agency.

Triston McKenzie continued to develop in his third season, showing why he was twice ranked as the Guardians' top prospect. He finished 11-11 with a 2.96 ERA in 191 1/3 innings pitched and finished with the highest strikeout rate of any of Cleveland’s regular starters. At just 24 years old, he still has room for improvement in 2023, when he will likely make the jump to become the Guardians’ ace.

Also 27 years old, Cal Quantrill added dependability and stability for the Guardians as a mid-rotation starter. He finished 15-5 with a 3.38 ERA and threw 186 1/3 innings. Quantrill relies heavily on his defense, with just a 6.2 K/9, which makes him more valuable to the Guardians than to other teams. He is not likely to dominate but is perfectly suited as a mid-rotation starter for a playoff-caliber team.

“The Rest” of the 2022 Rotation

Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac were two other regular starters for the Guardians in 2022, and both are potential trade candidates this offseason. Civale (5-6, 4.92 ERA over 97 innings in 20 starts) dealt with multiple injuries before making it back at the end of the season and made the ALDS roster. Plesac (3-12, 4.31, 131.2 IP in 25 starts) suffered a hand injury when hitting the mound in anger after giving up a home run to Jake Lamb in a game against the Mariners in August. This cost him a spot on the playoff roster and continues a trend of concerning behavior that has worn thin on fans and teammates in Cleveland. Both Civale and Plesac have value as relatively low-cost mid-to-back-end rotation starters, so many teams will likely have interest if the Guardians do decide to move one or both. With several other starting options, it seems unlikely that both will be back in Cleveland in 2023.

Konnor Pilkington (1-2, 3.88, 58 IP over 15 games and 11 starts), Cody Morris (1-2, 2.28, seven games, five starts, 23 IP) and Xzavion Curry (9.1 IP over two starts) were all rookies who made their debuts with Cleveland in 2022. Of the three, Curry seems to have the highest upside, pitching last year at just 23 years old.  Meanwhile, Pilkington provides a ready-made replacement for Civale or Plesac given that he threw a total of 114 2/3 innings between the minors last year. Meanwhile, Morris, who is already 25 years old, needs to prove that he can stay healthy in order to be more than an occasional depth piece.