Cleveland Guardians offseason outlook: starting rotation

The Cleveland Guardians' starting rotation was somewhat of a mixed bag in 2022. They finished with the tenth-best starters' ERA in MLB at 3.73, but ranked just 17th in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), a stat meant to eliminate variables that the pitcher has less control over. Their top three starters (Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, and Cal Quantrill) all pitched to career low strikeout rates, and depended on the Guardians' elite defense, which helps to account for the FIP discrepancy, since that stat is influenced heavily by strikeout rates.

Cleveland's top three carried the rotation the whole year, with Bieber leading the AL in innings pitched, and McKenzie growing into a force down the stretch. However, entering the playoffs, Sports Illustrated ranked them the lowest of any rotation among playoff teams.

Overall, they are a deep, young group that is in good shape to help them remain competitive for years to come. That being said, look for Guardians GM Mike Chernoff to be opportunistic with moves to improve this group during the offseason.

Guardians Rotation Locks

Three starters provided stability and excellence throughout 2022 and should be viewed as locks to lead the rotation again in 2023 barring a blockbuster trade.

27-year-old ace Shane Bieber remade himself somewhat in 2022. Bieber was an All-Star in 2019 and 2021, and a Cy Young winner in the COVID-19-shortened 2020 season, when he led the league in strikeouts, wins and ERA.

This year, pitching with decreased velocity and a career-low strikeout rate, Bieber led the American League with 200 innings pitched, providing stability and dependability at the front of baseball’s youngest rotation. He finished with a 13-8 record and 2.88 ERA, winning his first Gold Glove Award. Expect trade whispers to continue as his salary continues to increase via arbitration, but also realize that the Guardians have shown a willingness to keep core players around in order to remain competitive, and the dependable excellence of Bieber will be hard to replace via trade, and impossible to replace at a similar cost through free agency.

Triston McKenzie continued to develop in his third season, showing why he was twice ranked as the Guardians' top prospect. He finished 11-11 with a 2.96 ERA in 191 1/3 innings pitched and finished with the highest strikeout rate of any of Cleveland’s regular starters. At just 24 years old, he still has room for improvement in 2023, when he will likely make the jump to become the Guardians’ ace.

Also 27 years old, Cal Quantrill added dependability and stability for the Guardians as a mid-rotation starter. He finished 15-5 with a 3.38 ERA and threw 186 1/3 innings. Quantrill relies heavily on his defense, with just a 6.2 K/9, which makes him more valuable to the Guardians than to other teams. He is not likely to dominate but is perfectly suited as a mid-rotation starter for a playoff-caliber team.

Prospects on the Way in 2023

Daniel Espino is ranked as Cleveland’s top prospect by Baseball America and #15 overall in baseball according to MLB.com. He projects to be a top-of-the-rotation starter, and while he may not crack the Opening Day rotation, he is expected to debut in 2023 and the Guardians expect him to be a rotation anchor for years to come.

Certainly not as heralded as Espino, Tanner Bibee burst onto the scene and onto the prospect radar with a fantastic showing in 2022. He struck out 167 batters in 132 2/3 innings with a 2.17 ERA in the minors this year. His breakout propelled him onto MLB.com’s list of Top 100 prospects, coming in 99th overall. He may still not be getting the recognition he deserves, and with continued development he could contribute at the major-league level in 2023.

Prospects Justin Campbell and Peyton Bettenfield provide additional depth and insurance in 2023. Campbell pitches in the mid-90s, touching as high as 97 mph, while Battenfield, already 25 years old, projects more as a depth piece as a back-end starter with minor-league options, or a swing man.

The Guardians have a solid base to their rotation, and multiple ways they can upgrade this offseason with the goal of getting them over the hump to prepare for a deep playoff run in 2023.