Cleveland Guardians: Best and worst of April
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The month of April has come and gone, and with it, there are some positives and negatives for the Cleveland Guardians. There are a few notable positives through their first 29 games played and some very obvious negatives to go along with it.
April's Best for the Cleveland Guardians: Impressive start to the year
The Guardians are 19-10 and have managed to win seven of their first nine series of the year. This is no small feat, and it should not be ignored. Winning at this rate in the manner they are doing so early on is usually a pretty good indicator of future success.
Cleveland has one of the best run differentials in the league currently (+45) and has been able to win games by comfortable margins, as well as exciting comeback victories. These were two areas that the Guardians struggled in last season. Seeing this team with only a few minor tweaks to the on-field personnel succeed where they failed in 2023 speaks volumes about how last season was the outlier, with 2022 being more indicative of their true form.
There are a few adjustments that are going to be required in the near future, letting certain players go in favor of other, more promising players. Additionally, Cleveland should be able to activate one of their starting pitchers soon, barring any more setbacks. This should put the Guardians in a pretty good position to continue their hot start and push for the American League Central crown.
April's Worst for the Cleveland Guardians: Short outings from starting pitchers
If there has been one notable area of concern so far for the Cleveland Guardians, it has been the lack of length they have gotten out of their starting rotation. Every game it seems like it is a battle for that day's starter to reach the 5-inning mark and almost an impossible task to reach 6.
Of Cleveland's 27 non-Shane Bieber starts, 24 of them have been under 6 innings pitched, while 11 have been under 5. Logan Allen (6.2), Tanner Bibee (7.0), and Ben Lively (6.1) have been the only Guardians starters to eclipse the 6-inning mark so far. Carlos Carrasco (three times), Triston McKenzie (twice), and Xzavion Curry (once) have pitched at least 5 innings but have failed to advance further into the game.
It is still relatively early in the season, and there is no real reason to push players to and beyond their limits in April, so some of these short outings can be somewhat justified. However, if they are not able to find some length soon, this could have catastrophic effects later in the season. Cleveland's bullpen has been one of the best in baseball so far, but that can only continue for so long if they are being tasked with covering 3-4 innings each and every night. Those innings add up and will eventually lead to arms running out of gas in September and October, making it increasingly difficult to win games when they matter most.
April's Best for the Cleveland Guardians: Josh Naylor and Steven Kwan showcasing elite talent
Coming into the season, everyone knew that the only way the Cleveland Guardians were going to bounce back from 2023's disaster was if they were able to get meaningful production from players not named Jose Ramirez. Enter Josh Naylor and Steven Kwan. This dynamic duo has gotten off to a hot start in April and has been a huge factor in Cleveland's early season success.
Naylor is slashing .282/.361/.553 with seven doubles, and seven home runs with 24 runs driven in. The 27-year-old is well on his way to a fantastic season that should see him attain the levels of production that everyone knew he was capable of, but a few injuries along the way have prevented him from reaching.
Kwan currently leads the American League in hits (42) and runs (27), showcasing his ability to set the offensive tone from the start for the Guardians as their leadoff hitter. Kwan's .350/.395/.483 slash line so far is very impressive, as it has contributed to an 155 OPS+ through the first month-plus of the season. It certainly appears that Kwan has taken that next step forward in his development as a major league hitter, and it is paying dividends for the Guardians.
April's Worst for the Cleveland Guardians: Losing Shane Bieber after just two starts
It was an absolute gut punch to hear that Shane Bieber's season was over after just two starts.Bieber was looking absolutely dominant and it appeared that he was back to his Cy Young caliber self. Unfortunately, that all came to an end when it was announced that he would be undergoing Tommy John surgery that would bring this outstanding start to a screeching halt.
This goes hand-in-hand with the previous mention of Guardians starting pitchers not going deep into games. Bieber pitched 6 innings in both of his starts, something that has only been accomplished three other times by three different pitchers.Not having Bieber in the rotation is only going to make those occurrences less frequent than they would have been, and that is going to be a problem.
Bieber has shown that he can pitch a high volume of innings when called upon. Losing a veteran arm of this stature with a trio of young arms in their rotation (one is yet to debut in 2024 but is still expected to be a meaningful contributor) could prove costly. The injury to Bieber has provided Carlos Carrasco with a few more opportunities to continue his run with the team, in addition to veteran pitcher Ben Lively being a possible unlikely savior to this rotation. These two should be able to help make up for the loss of Bieber, but everyone would feel a lot better about the Guardians' chances come October.
April's Best for the Cleveland Guardians: More wins than losses against teams above .500
Much was made of the Cleveland Guardians' early season schedule, which included seven games against the Oakland Athletics and three against the hapless Chicago White Sox, resulting in many questioning the legitimacy of their impressive start. Yes, winning six of seven against Oakland and two of three may not be all that impressive, but the Guardians do own a winning record against teams over .500 this season.
Cleveland is 11-8 in matchups with teams with more wins than losses so far this season, with only four of those losses coming in series losses. The second piece of information there is very important, as it shows that three of Cleveland's losses against winning teams have come in series that the Guardians have won. Being able to limit losses against good teams is extremely important if a team wants to qualify for the postseason, and the Guardians have succeeded in that area so far.
There is one more thing thatshould be pointed out here regarding their seven games with the soon-to-be locationless Athletics. If the games played against Cleveland were to be removed from the equation, the A's would have a 13-11 record, showing that they are not necessarily the pushover they are painted out to be. That is not to say they are good, but perhaps the Guardians' wins are a bit more meaningful than people have made them out to be.
April's Worst for the Cleveland Guardians: Disappointing production from the other outfielders
Pretty much everyone knew that Steven Kwan would bounce back in 2024 and be a reliable source of production at the top of the Cleveland Guardians' lineup. That is not the problem here. The problem is that the rest of Cleveland's outfield group has been incredibly underwhelming through the season's first month.
Tyler Freeman: 17-83 .205/.302/.361, four doubles, three home runs, 12 RBI, three stolen bases, 18 strikeouts
Will Brennan: 16-75 .213/.268/.387, four doubles, three home runs, 10 RBI, two stolen bases, 13 strikeouts
Estevan Florial: 11-48 .229/.327/.500, three home runs, two doubles, one triple, nine RBI, one stolen base, 22 strikeouts
Ramon Laureano: 8-52 .154/.297/.212, three doubles, three RBI, three stolen bases, 22 strikeouts
There is not a whole lot to like here. Tyler Freeman and Will Brennan are basically everyday players, and their production has been very average from an OPS+ standpoint (93 and 89, respectively). A team can live with this mark from two players in a complimentary role, as there are others in the lineup that are depended on to contribute much more than that on a daily basis (Kwan, Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez). An improvement in production is needed and likely on the way with these two, but they will need to make that happen if they do not want to lose time to a potential prospect call-up later in the year.
Estevan Florial barely qualifies as an outfielder, as most of his time has come as Cleveland's designated hitter. With that being said, the flier Cleveland took on Florial is not paying off in the manner they would have hoped for. Yes, Florial is carrying a 137 OPS+ at the moment, but that is a number that seems destined to crater soon. The former Yankees prospect swings and misses so frequently that it makes it incredibly difficult for his roster spot to be guaranteed much longer. It would be one thing if he was near or at the top in home runs or doubles, but his totals in these areas are very underwhelming. Florial's home run in Tuesday's loss to Houston may have bought him a little more time, but his tenure with the Guardians definitely has an end date that will be approaching soon.
Concerning Ramon Laureano, things are not great right now. Laureano is striking out way too much and not doing much of anything at the plate. Even though people want to cast Laureano aside instead of the aforementioned Florial, that is unlikely to happen any time soon. This would be due to the imminent call-up of Kyle Manzardo, who is going to split time with Josh Naylor at first base and the designated hitter spot. With Laureano's defensive and base-running abilities, combined with the need for a reserve outfielder, it would be Florial who would be on the bubble in this situation. If Laureano is not able to turn things around later in the year, it would be his turn to be sent packing in favor of a different outfield option, possibly the highly regarded Chase DeLauter. But until that time, expect Laureano to remain a regular despite his struggles with a bat in his hand, while Florial could be on his way out, and rightfully so.