Building Blocks: Are the Cleveland Guardians in better shape now when compared to previous playoff runs?

Guardians fans are anxiously anticipating their fix of playoff baseball. 2024 marks the franchise’s maiden playoff voyage under manager Stephen Vogt. While the Guardians have twice qualified for the playoffs since the turn of the decade, many new faces surround Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, and Austin Hedges, the lone survivors of the 2020 run. With days separating Cleveland and playoff baseball, it’s time to review how the Guardians' roster stacks up against the last two Cleveland teams to qualify for the playoffs in 2020 and 2022.

Comparing Cleveland Guardians Starting Pitching

2020: Shane Bieber, Carlos Carrasco, Zach Plesac (projected)

2022: Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Cal Quantril, Aaron Civale

2024 (projected): Tanner Bibee, Matthew Boyd, Alex Cobb

It’s funny to look at the turnover between the previous two playoff rotations. I’d argue that the 2024 rotation is likely the third-best of these groups, but with Bieber’s injuries and McKenzie’s regression, the expectations of the rotation are lower. Bibee isn’t a dazzling headliner like Bieber, who won the pitching triple crown in 2020 and struck out 198 batters in 200 innings in 2022. However, Bibee has recovered from a rocky first half by recording five quality starts since the All-Star Break, including three consecutive QSs to end the season. Bibee came into his own in September, finishing the month with a 2.61 ERA and 31 Ks over five starts. 

When the Guards stood 51-29 with the best W% in the AL on June 28th, neither Boyd nor Cobb had yet signed with an organization destined for the playoffs- now they are likely playoff starters. Boyd has made eight starts since joining the club, and the 33-year-old has gone 2-2, 2.78 ERA, and 1.13 WHIP over that span. Boyd’s most memorable performance as a Guardian was a six-inning, one-earned-run showing versus the Dodgers, proving to Vogt that the veteran southpaw could start in October. 

Alex Cobb is the rumored third starter for the playoffs based on his pitching activity, but Cobb is a significant question mark for Cleveland. Cobb struggled in the Twin Cities in his Guardians debut before making a great start versus the Cubs, in which he allowed one run on three hits over 5.2 innings. Following that start, Cobb was removed from the rotation for blister issues, sidelining him for two weeks. Cobb, a 2023 All-Star at age 35, returned to twirl six innings of two-hit shutout baseball against the Pirates, in which he took a perfect game into the seventh inning. Cobb’s injury issues lingered, however, as he returned to the IL and has not made a start since September 1st. While Cobb’s last two starts were certainly impressive, it’s tough to bank on a 36-year-old who has not made a start against a playoff team this season, especially considering it will be over a month since he has last pitched in an MLB game. 

The verdict: The 2024 playoff rotation is a C compared to the previous two playoff runs. While Bibee is more than capable of being a #2 starter with ace potential, the downgrade from Bieber to Bibee as an ace is a significant fall-off. Bibee is more ‘22 McKenzie than ‘22 Bieber. Man, imagine if they had Bieber. Like Bibee, if Boyd is moved one slot down, he’s above most other #3 starters in the playoffs. Bieber, Bibee, and Boyd (who would have been the Killer B’s) would have earned an A+, but the lack of star power hurts, especially in a short series. Like Plesac in ‘20, Alex Cobb is a fun third starter with remarkable statistics in a minimal sample size. 

Comparing members of the Cleveland Guardians Lineup

2020: Francisco Lindor SS, Cesar Hernandez 2B, Jose Ramirez 3B, Carlos Santana 1B, Franmil Reyes DH, Josh Naylor LF, Roberto Perez C, Tyler Naquin RF, Delino DeShields CF

2022: Steven Kwan LF, Amed Rosario SS, Jose Ramirez 3B, Josh Naylor 1B, Oscar Gonzalez RF, Andres Gimenez 2B, Will Brennan DH, Austin Hedges C, Myles Straw CF

2024 (projected): Steven Kwan LF, Kyle Manzardo DH, Jose Ramirez 3B, Josh Naylor 1B, Lane Thomas CF, Andres Gimenez 2B, Will Brennan RF, Bo Naylor C, Brayan Rocchio SS

This is the biggest toss-up of the three facets, which would make sense considering the large number of variables. It’s worth noting that between David Fry, Jhonkensey Noel, and Angel Martinez, Cleveland has their best bench in recent playoff memory. Fry, who cooled off after his All-Star selection, well exceeds Gabriel Arias, Owen Miller, Jordan Luplow, and Mike Freeman- the main bench bats of the previous two playoff runs. Having 11-12 hitters that can contribute is a luxury we have not had in the past. Depth is the first of multiple advantages this team has had over years prior. 

Steven Kwan will again occupy the leadoff spot this year, and he’s developed from his rookie season, including major strides in 2024. At the same time, Lindor had a “down” year as one of the top players in the sport, which could have changed at any time. Kwan’s .292/.368/.425 with increased power gives this year’s team the definite edge.

As far as cleanup hitters go, ‘24 Josh Naylor had a better season than ‘22 Naylor, who was returning from injury. Santana, a historically slow starter, could not get his season off the ground in the COVID year, which gives 2024 a superior cleanup hitter.

The one deficiency in the 2024 lineup compared to its predecessors is the lack of a fourth “top tier” bat. Lane Thomas may take this role next year, but he is new to town. At times this season, it looked like Fry or Noel could fill this hole, but ultimately, it’s been the lack of offensive production from Andres Gimenez since his extension. Gimenez is a fine hitter and spectacular fielder, but his .252/.299/.340 season does not equate to the vision following his breakout in 2022. Gimenez’s 2022 and Franmil Reyes's strong COVID season lengthened the star power of the lineup. 

The remaining three spots in the top 6 are not very distinguishable between the teams. Jose Ramirez is Jose Ramirez, no matter what year it is. COVID Hosey had a .993 OPS. Prefer a larger sample size? Try his last two regular seasons, resulting in a postseason trip: .869 OPS, career-high RBIs (2022), and .872 OPS, career-high home runs (2024). 

‘20 Naylor, Gonzalez, and Manzardo are a wash as they are all young projected power bats that heated up late in September. Hernandez, Rosario, and Thomas were all the 4th/5th best hitter on the team, but were reliable veterans who were able to consistently reach base. 

Cleveland’s last advantage, almost by default, is that 7-9 in the lineup is slightly stronger. In 2020, Tyler Naquin’s mundane .218 season at the plate was head and shoulders above Roberto Perez and DeLino DeShields Jr. (the prized return for trading Corey Kluber to the Rangers). 2022’s bottom three consisted of Will Brennan (42 career ABs) and the black hole of Austin Hedges and Myles Straw. Brennan is a better baseball player 750 at-bats later, and Bo Naylor’s above .200 average and 13 homers are a clear upgrade at the plate to Perez. Rocchio has progressed late in the season, and his at-bats are more exciting than Straw's. 

The verdict: It’s an upgrade! A-. The power bats are improved, the bench is better, and the lineup is deeper. Is it an A+ lineup? By no means. Is it a significant improvement in almost every juncture? 100%. 

Cumulatively, the roster grades out at A-, an improvement over the previous two postseason runs, which is better than I anticipated entering this exercise. As our attention turns to Saturday, let us know how you think the Guardians fare in the ALDS!