Building Blocks: Are the Cleveland Guardians in better shape now when compared to previous playoff runs?

Guardians fans are anxiously anticipating their fix of playoff baseball. 2024 marks the franchise’s maiden playoff voyage under manager Stephen Vogt. While the Guardians have twice qualified for the playoffs since the turn of the decade, many new faces surround Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, and Austin Hedges, the lone survivors of the 2020 run. With days separating Cleveland and playoff baseball, it’s time to review how the Guardians' roster stacks up against the last two Cleveland teams to qualify for the playoffs in 2020 and 2022.

Comparing Cleveland Guardians Starting Pitching

2020: Shane Bieber, Carlos Carrasco, Zach Plesac (projected)

2022: Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Cal Quantril, Aaron Civale

2024 (projected): Tanner Bibee, Matthew Boyd, Alex Cobb

It’s funny to look at the turnover between the previous two playoff rotations. I’d argue that the 2024 rotation is likely the third-best of these groups, but with Bieber’s injuries and McKenzie’s regression, the expectations of the rotation are lower. Bibee isn’t a dazzling headliner like Bieber, who won the pitching triple crown in 2020 and struck out 198 batters in 200 innings in 2022. However, Bibee has recovered from a rocky first half by recording five quality starts since the All-Star Break, including three consecutive QSs to end the season. Bibee came into his own in September, finishing the month with a 2.61 ERA and 31 Ks over five starts. 

When the Guards stood 51-29 with the best W% in the AL on June 28th, neither Boyd nor Cobb had yet signed with an organization destined for the playoffs- now they are likely playoff starters. Boyd has made eight starts since joining the club, and the 33-year-old has gone 2-2, 2.78 ERA, and 1.13 WHIP over that span. Boyd’s most memorable performance as a Guardian was a six-inning, one-earned-run showing versus the Dodgers, proving to Vogt that the veteran southpaw could start in October. 

Alex Cobb is the rumored third starter for the playoffs based on his pitching activity, but Cobb is a significant question mark for Cleveland. Cobb struggled in the Twin Cities in his Guardians debut before making a great start versus the Cubs, in which he allowed one run on three hits over 5.2 innings. Following that start, Cobb was removed from the rotation for blister issues, sidelining him for two weeks. Cobb, a 2023 All-Star at age 35, returned to twirl six innings of two-hit shutout baseball against the Pirates, in which he took a perfect game into the seventh inning. Cobb’s injury issues lingered, however, as he returned to the IL and has not made a start since September 1st. While Cobb’s last two starts were certainly impressive, it’s tough to bank on a 36-year-old who has not made a start against a playoff team this season, especially considering it will be over a month since he has last pitched in an MLB game. 

The verdict: The 2024 playoff rotation is a C compared to the previous two playoff runs. While Bibee is more than capable of being a #2 starter with ace potential, the downgrade from Bieber to Bibee as an ace is a significant fall-off. Bibee is more ‘22 McKenzie than ‘22 Bieber. Man, imagine if they had Bieber. Like Bibee, if Boyd is moved one slot down, he’s above most other #3 starters in the playoffs. Bieber, Bibee, and Boyd (who would have been the Killer B’s) would have earned an A+, but the lack of star power hurts, especially in a short series. Like Plesac in ‘20, Alex Cobb is a fun third starter with remarkable statistics in a minimal sample size.