Bleak prediction for Shane Bieber's future in Cleveland

The upcoming free agency of Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Shane Bieber has received plenty of attention over the past few seasons. With Cleveland's known operating procedure when it comes to players like Bieber, many thought he would be moved either in 2023 or 2024, depending on the competitive state of the Guardians, in addition to what trade packages were being offered at the time. Unfortunately, injuries over the past two seasons have taken any potential trades of Bieber off the table for the Guardians, leaving them in a situation that they prefer to avoid altogether. That situation being having a key player become a free agent.

With the potential for a trade no longer possible, some have tried to predict Bieber's future, and it does not appear many are buying any chance of a return to Cleveland. As part of Joel Reuter's Re-Sign or Move On: Predicting the Outcome for Each MLB Team's Top 2024-25 Free Agent appearing on Bleacher Report, it seems that a return to Cleveland is not likely in his eyes.

The Guardians generally steer clear of expensive long-term contracts, with the José Ramírez extension one of the few exceptions, and it has long looked like Shane Bieber's time with the team would come to an end when he reached free agency.

Reuter follows the train of logic used by most here, the history of the Guardians organization combined with the projected end date of Bieber in Cleveland make it seem like he could end up donning a new uniform next season. Even though the logic is sound, going off what was once expected and previous history may not be the best path forward here.

It would be one thing if Bieber was still active and helping this Guardians team in their quest to return to the top of the American League Central division and anchor their rotation in the postseason. However, that is not the case. Bieber has 12 innings under his belt this year and has missed a considerable amount of time over the past two seasons. The extended amount of time spent off the field could be more than enough to scare a few teams from pursuing Bieber's services. This could very easily result in Cleveland bringing Bieber back on some type of short-term deal. Brandon Woodruff's latest contract with the Milwaukee Brewers was mentioned by Reuter as a possible template to follow.

When it comes to how things will play out here, it is truly anyone's guess. Cleveland's previous actions with players fitting Bieber's free agent description are fairly lengthy and do provide a pretty good idea of how things may play out. With that being said, the recent injury history of Bieber does complicate things and may lead to him returning to Cleveland for one more season in an attempt to restore his value.