7 bold predictions for the Cleveland Guardians in 2024

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Opening Day is finally here, and with that comes the hope of a new season. The Cleveland Guardians are looking to rebound from their 76-86 record from last season, which resulted in a third-place finish in the American League Central behind the Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers.

A new era is beginning on the corner of Carnegie and Ontario as longtime and future Hall of Fame manager Terry Francona stepped down from his position, with incoming rookie manager Stephen Vogt taking his place. It is not going to be an easy task for Vogt, or for anyone else who would succeed Francona for that matter, but those in the front office who brought him aboard believe he is up to the task.

Last season saw quite a few things go wrong for the Guardians, which ultimately resulted in some trades being made (and one that was almost made) that drew the ire of fans and local media alike. While time and patience will be required in order to find out if their decisions from last season pan out in the manner the organization hopes they will, the focus now remains on the upcoming season that should play out better than the one that preceded it.

With all of that being said, here are seven predictions for the Cleveland Guardians in 2024.

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1. Attendance will increase for the fourth consecutive year

One of everyone's favorite and most heated topics of conversation when it comes to the Cleveland Guardians. Attendance.

Most are quick to point to the high attendance numbers from the 90s and the sellout streak, which was mostly aided by the allure of a new stadium in addition to an inactive Cleveland Browns franchise. These two factors are mostly ignored by a large portion of the fanbase as well as sports talk personalities who have absolutely zero business discussing the sport of baseball, much less what drove the attendance bump 30 years ago.

Shifting to today, the Guardians have seen attendance increase over the past three years after the 2020 season did not allow fans into stadiums during the regular season. Just over 1.1 million fans attended games in 2021, a number which requires an asterisk due to the season beginning with limited attendance. That number saw a slight uptick in 2022 to just under 1.3 million, with 2023 increasing to 1.8 million.

Attendance figures should continue their upward trend in 2024 as the Cleveland Guardians are in a position to be more successful this upcoming season, and that should help bring more fans into the stadium beyond the Home Opener. Well, that, and the renovations that have been completed, will bring additional fans into Progressive Field as well.

2. Shane Bieber will be traded during the season

Certain things just feel inevitable, and this is one of them. The rumors surrounding the Cleveland Guardians potentially trading Shane Bieber have been well-documented for the past few seasons. But with Cleveland having just one more year of control and the very likely outcome of an extension not coming to fruition to keep Bieber in town beyond this season, the Guardians would be wise to listen to any and all offers for the former Cy Young Award winner.

It was a bit surprising that the Guardians did not reach out to the New York Yankees following the injury to Gerrit Cole that is expected to keep him out for a significant portion of the season early on. There is a ton of pressure on the Yankees to win this season, and it may have been possible to get more for Bieber then than at any other point in the season.

It honestly feels like Bieber's time with the Cleveland Guardians will come to an end at some point during the 2024 season. Even if the Guardians are winning games and are in a position to potentially win the division, do not count out the possibility of Bieber being dealt. Remember, Bieber was almost moved last year when the Guardians were still in the mix last year before being hurt. Anything and everything is on the table here.

While the preferred course of action would be the Guardians somehow finding a way to extend Bieber, as long as he remains on his current contract, the expectation should be that he will be traded during the season. This is the way the Guardians operate, for better or worse. More often than not, this operational style has contributed to a winning and successful organization, and it is hard to argue with this strategy as the Guardians are one of the winningest teams in baseball as of late.

3. Estevan Florial will not be on the roster by June 1st

Here we go, a prediction with a hard deadline.

This may not be the boldest or hottest take about the Cleveland Guardians 2024 season in existence, but it is still one that is being made. It is difficult to envision a scenario in which outfielder Estevan Florial is on the roster by the first day of June.

Let's face the facts here. Florial has not been successful in his limited time in the majors, striking out in 30.6% of his major league plate appearances. This rate would be a bit easier to digest if there was some notable power to go along with that, but Florial has just one home run to his name.

Florial struggled in Spring Training, which did not alleviate any of the concerns regarding his hitting profile and whether or not he is going to add some power to the Guardians' outfield mix (all signs point to no). The former Yankees prospect struck out 24 times in 58 plate appearances (41.4%), a rate which is far from acceptable. Much like his major league career so far, it would be passable if there was power to offset that, but seven of his eight hits in Arizona were singles, with his lone extra-base hit being a double.

Many have been quick to point out that the Guardians traded pitcher Cody Morris for Florial, and that should be a reason that he remains with the organization for most, if not all, of the entire 2024 season. This is a classic case of sunk cost fallacy and should be disregarded entirely. The reality is there was not a path for Morris to get playing time with at the major league level, much like Florial in New York. Both teams recognized this and were willing trade partners on a deal that sees them swap blocked players who have not necessarily performed at a high level thus far. Cleveland is giving Florial a chance he would not otherwise have, and unless he can take advantage of that, he will be gone.

4. Kyle Manzardo debuts and makes fools of everyone who criticized his acquistion

It was not necessarily the trade that brought first base prospect Kyle Manzardo to Cleveland that many were not happy with, but it was the way the Guardians acquired him. Coming to Cleveland in exchange for Aaron Civale at a time when the Guardians were somewhat in the mix for the division, many viewed this move as part of waving the white flag on the year by the organization. While moving an overperforming Civale did not help the team in 2023, the hope is that Manzardo will be a key bat in the lineup for years to come.

There was plenty of misinformed criticism when the deal was made. Manzardo did not necessarily have the best numbers in Triple-A at the time, and that was a talking point by many, particularly those on local sports talk radio who mostly talk baseball one day per year (Opening Day). What is often overlooked with this argument is that it was Manzardo’s first time above Double-A, and that has an adjustment period. Additionally, Manzardo was dealing with an injury at the time, which did not help his performance during that time.

The good news is that there is plenty of time for Manzardo to prove his doubters wrong, and that can happen this season. Manzardo was one of Cleveland’s best performers in Spring Training, which should have eased some concerns in those doubting him. Even though Manzardo is not on the Opening Day roster, expect him to come up a little later in the season ready to prove many people wrong and show he is not another Matt LaPorta or Jake Bauers.

5. Chase DeLauter makes his debut and plays a big role down the stretch

It is not a question of if but when the Cleveland Guardians will call up dynamic outfield prospect Chase DeLauter.

Much like the previously mentioned Kyle Manzardo, DeLauter was one of the Guardians’ best performers during Spring Training. It is only a matter of time before he gets the call, and when he does, expect him to make an impact for the Guardians late in the season.

DeLauter has one particular skill in his hitting profile that none of the Guardians’ outfielders from last season possess. Power. The James Madison product registered 22 doubles and five home runs during his first year in the minors last year, resulting in an impressive .945 OPS. This carried over to Arizona, as DeLauter hit four long balls and one double, with his OPS sitting at 1.640 after 30 plate appearances (13 games).

Once the Guardians move on from one player mentioned earlier here, DeLauter would be in line to make his MLB Debut. That is going to take a little bit of time, but it does appear that he possesses a hitting profile that will translate well to the majors, and it is one that should help contribute to a late-season playoff push for the Guardians.

6. The Cleveland Guardians win the division

No one is really expecting all that much from the Cleveland Guardians this season in regards to being competitive in the American League Central division this season. A big part of that is the rather quiet offseason by the ball club. There are very everyday players who possess power, and that was a clear issue from last season that does not appear to be addressed unless you count the acquisition of Estevan Florial (nobody should).

So, should everyone just not bother with this season and expect the Guardians to finish in second place or worse? Absolutely not. The Guardians were snakebit with injuries to key players last season, in addition to a few others having down years. Unless you’re the biggest anti-fan out there, it is just about impossible to envision a scenario that results in the same series of events playing out again in 2024.

Expect fewer moving pieces on the pitching staff this year, especially early on. Having a somewhat consistent group of pitchers in the rotation will help the Guardians’ effort to win games on a regular basis. There were so many different options that were used last season that it made it really difficult to win games at the rate this team should.

Another factor that should help Cleveland’s cause? Andres Gimenez and Steven Kwan being bigger contributors this year. Both players had down years in 2023, and that is truly indicative of their skill level. Expect this to change for the better this year. Gimenez and Kwan are definitely better than what last year showed, and returning to form should play a big part in what should be a successful season for the Guardians in 2024.

What does all of this mean?

It means that the Guardians are not the also-rans everyone is projecting them to be. The AL Central does not feature an elite roster like the Dodgers, Orioles, or Braves. This is going to allow Cleveland to be more in the mix than people realize. It could even mean they can win the division. No one should be afraid of any other Central Division team, as none of them are world-beaters. The Guardians are more than capable of winning the division this year despite being projected to finish in a position other than first. All it takes is a few things to go their way, and considering the amount of things that didn’t last year, they’re due.

7. Jose Ramirez wins American League MVP

There is one player in Major League Baseball who has been identified as one of the game's best and has been in MVP discussions but has not yet won the elusive award. Jose Ramirez. That changes this year.

If there was ever an opportunity for Ramirez to win the American League’s Most Valuable Player Award, it is 2024. Shohei Ohtani is now in the National League. Mike Trout has not appeared in more than 120 games in the last three seasons. If second and third-place-finishing Texas Ranger teammates Corey Seager and Marcus Semien keep cannibalizing votes from each other, it keeps a path open for Ramirez.

The best third baseman in all of baseball should have a little more help this season. Last year saw Ramirez being pitched around a lot last year, leading the majors in intentional walks for the second straight season. The removal of multiple offensive black holes from 2023 (Mike Zunino, Myles Straw, Cam Gallagher) should result in a lineup that performs better on a collective basis. This means that Ramirez should get more pitches to hit, resulting in a more productive year from a statistical standpoint. This matters when it comes to MVP voting, as players on teams that have issues offensively outside of the candidate rarely finish high, much less win.

A year of gaudy offensive numbers from Ramirez in a season that the AL MVP race will be very wide open will give him a chance to be Cleveland’s first MVP since Al Rosen in 1953.