6 Guardians players that won't be back for the 2024 season

Lucas Giolito

The Guardians actually made a pretty savvy move to claim multiple players off of waivers from the Angels including Lucas Giolito late this season. Doing so did help a bit with the organization's optics problem that came with the aforementioned Civale trade, although it ultimately was too little, too late when it comes to where the Guardians ended up in the standings.

Giolito was supposed to be one of the prizes of the trade deadline and, based on his track record, he should have been productive on the mound. Unfortunately, he struggled mightily after being traded by White Sox as he posted a 6.89 ERA in six starts with the Angels and was even worse with the Guardians.

As a free agent this offseason, the idea of Guardians keeping Giolito around is a tough sell. Giolito is going to be in pretty high demand despite his struggles this season and given that he made $10.4 million in 2023, his price tag was already likely to be beyond what the Guardians were going to be willing to pay. When you combine the potential cost along with the fact that Cleveland had a front row seat to him being borderline unplayable his last six starts of 2023, there is just a very, very low chance that the Guardians try to keep him in the fold.

Kole Calhoun

The Guardians don't have a ton of pending free agents to consider going into the offseason and frankly, most are guys that will not be missed very much. Case in point is Kole Calhoun who fits the mold of a veteran journeyman that just helps fill out a roster and little else to a T.

In 174 plate appearances for Cleveland in 2023, Calhoun slashed .217/.282/.376 with six homers. Modern baseball doesn't exactly have much use for guys like Kole who are the second or third bat you would bring off the bench, but he honestly fails to clear the low bar of production for such a role and the Guardians can simply do better than him without breaking the bank.

One thing Calhoun does have going for him, though, is that he is cheap as he made just $720,000 this season. IF he is willing to stick around for that much and Cleveland sees value in having him around their young players next season, that would be fine because, again, there isn't a ton of opportunity cost with bench slots these days. However, anything beyond that means Cleveland should let him walk.

Reynaldo Lopez

Some of what was in the Giolito section could be put here as Cleveland made a nice heads up play to bring Reynaldo in in the first place as he has a high ceiling as a reliever and cost the team little to give a go. However, that is where the similarities ended as how the two players played after joining the Guardians couldn't have been more different.

In 12 appearances with the Guardians, Lopez built on his strong work with the Angels as he did not give up an earned run and put up a 2.17 FIP which points to his strong work being more than just a function of good luck. In an ideal world, keeping Reynaldo around would make sense for a team that wants to contend in the short-term.

However, it is unclear if that is where the Guardians are right now as a team and it is hard to see them keeping pace with the better teams in the AL Central next season let alone the other playoff contenders in the American League. Given that Lopez is likely to command a premium in free agency this offseason and Cleveland's competitive future is questionable, there seems to be little chance that Cleveland will pony up to pay for a reliever.

Daniel Norris

Every team has a guy on their roster whose sole purpose seems to be the guy they move to and from the minor league ranks when they have to make roster moves. For the Guardians in 2023, that guy was Daniel Norris and it is looking more and more like his career could be coming to the end of the line.

For a number of years now, Norris has just been a guy that fills a roster spot. Since 2017, he has averaged a 5.06 ERA and has transitioned from being a mediocre starter to being a mediocre bullpen arm. Having a veteran around that you can call up in a pinch has value, but that value that Norris brings has gotten lower and lower as the years have gone on.

After putting up the worst FIP of his career at 7.68 in a handful of appearances for Cleveland in 2023, the writing is on the wall at his point. Norris was cheap this season, but he doesn't bring much to the table anymore and it seems more likely that he will be struggling to find a job anywhere next season than it is that he will be playing in Cleveland in 2024.

Cam Gallagher

The catcher position for the Guardians has been pretty strange one in 2023. While Bo Naylor was the superior player by a significant margin, Cam Gallagher took the field a decent amount this season and the results were bad enough that a change needs to happen.

In 56 games this season, Gallagher posted a tragically low .322 OPS which is sadly right in line with what Cam has done to this point in his career. He is a reasonably capable defensive catcher, but this is not a big league bat in any shape, way, or form.

Entering his final year of arbitration eligibility, Gallagher is somehow likely to get a raise over the $1.25 million that he took home in 2023. Cleveland needs a backup that could do, well, anything at the plate on Naylor's days off. While it is unlikely that the Guardians invest a lot of money in a second catcher, they can find a guy that can give them more than Cam for as much or less money than he is going to be due which makes him a prime nontender candidate.

Shane Bieber

Finally, we come to the elephant in the room in Shane Bieber. Bieber is entering his final season of arbitration eligibility which means yet again the Guardians are at a crossroads with a franchise cornerstone and yet again it feels like the most likely outcome is that Cleveland trades him away before they have to pay him real money.

Bieber's performance with Cleveland warrants a big payday for him. He won the Cy Young in 2020 and in his six seasons with the Guardians, Shane has averaged a 3.27 ERA despite a relatively down year this past season as he dealt with inflammation in his elbow. Assuming he is fully healthy, Bieber remains one of the best arms in baseball and he is likely to make significantly more than the over $10 million he made in 2023.

All of this raises the question of Bieber's future with the Guardians and the signs are becoming more and more numerous that he is not interested in negotiating an extension with the team and instead wants to test free agency after the 2024 season. Cleveland has a history of trading this type of player away and given the lack of top quality arms on the free agent market this offseason, don't be surprised if Cleveland shops Bieber aggressively this winter in search of a big return.

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