Most worrisome Guardians projections are here courtesy of 2026 FanGraphs ZiPS

Projections in baseball can be fun. As the sport that was on the forefront of the analytical revolution cascading throughout sports right now, baseball projections will always be in a different place compared to other sports because of the uniqueness of the sport. 

On Wednesday, FanGraphs released their ZiPS projection for the 2026 Cleveland Guardians, which featured some interesting prognostications about how the season could go for the Guardians. 

FanGraphs’ ZiPS projections don’t love the Guardians in 2026 

One of the biggest takeaways is that ZiPS doesn’t think that there’s going to be any drop off from José Ramírez, as it has him recording another 20/20 season (26 home runs, 28 steals). He’s recorded 30+ home runs and 40+ steals in each of the past two seasons, so it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility for him to surpass those numbers, either. 

The most productive players after him are Steven Kwan (61 RBI, 18 steals) and Bo Naylor, who is projected to finally have a breakout season with 16 home runs and 52 RBI. Travis Bazzana is also projected to have a solid season (10 HR, 48 RBI, 18 doubles), albeit with sky-high strikeout numbers (129). 

Perhaps the most surprising projection came in the form of Johnathan Rodríguez’s, who was projected to hit 17 home runs with 66 runs driven in. Rodríguez has long been a projection darling due to his strong Triple-A track record, but he’s yet to put it all together in MLB. 

The ZiPS projections reinforce the Guardians’ lack of additions to their lineup, as they’re projected to get just 0.8 fWAR out of center field and designated hitter and just 1.3 fWAR of production out of right field. 

“The projections look most problematic at center field and designated hitter. Lots of teams slum it at DH, so I can see the Guardians just rolling with [insert mediocre burly batter here] at the position, but there’s probably at least some chance that they’ll make an upgrade in center,” Dan Szymborski wrote in FanGraph's write-up of the projections while adding that Harrison Bader and Cody Bellinger would be fits in the Guardians’ current outfield alignment. 

On the pitching side, both Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams are projected to pick up where they left off last year (both their projected ERAs are under 3.75), while Parker Messick is projected to take a step back (3.98 ERA). 

Mesick was lights out with the Guardians last season, but he relies heavily on craft and deception, which could naturally lead to some regression. 

The bullpen is set to be solid again thanks to the presence of Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis, even if it’s clear that the loss of Emmanuel Clase is impacting the offseason since all three of the Guardians’ external additions this winter were relievers. 

That said, all three of the acquisitions (Colin Holderman, Connor Brogdon and Peyton Pallette) are projected to have ERAs above four. 

While projections don’t mean everything (the games are played on the field, after all), they can provide a good statistical insight into expectations for how an upcoming season can go. And for the Guardians, it looks like more of the same. Strong pitching and play from Ramírez, but not much from everyone else.