For the better part of two years, Shane Bieber’s future was the main talking point among Guardians fans. Tuesday gave us our first hint that he could be back in the zeitgeist for Cleveland fans just in time for what could be a looooooong offseason.
Earlier today The Athletic’s Jim Bowden gave his predictions for where the top 40 free agents could end up in the offseason. And, in typical Guardians fashion, his lone connection to the Guardian came in the middle of the list when he predicted they’ll reunite with Shane Bieber on a one-year deal worth $20 million.
While it can sometimes seem like Bowden is just firing darts at the dartboard sometimes, he has some connections from his time running the Reds and it does seem like he has someone’s ear in the Guardians’ organization. That’s not to say that Bieber is a lock to return to Cleveland, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if that wasn’t a connection he made blindly.
We have our first breadcrumb connecting Shane Bieber with the Guardians
Bieber signing a one-year deal with the Guardians isn’t the most surprising thing in the world since the Guardians need a starter and clearly know they have the means to get the most out of Bieber. The real surprise comes from the projected $20 million price tag.
That’s not a crazy contract for a pitcher of Bieber’s caliber, but that’s far too rich for a Guardians team that is already trying to figure out what to do with Steven Kwan and Jo Adell’s rising arbitration costs.
And it’s not like Bieber’s in a great spot either. He finished last season with a 4.37 ERA in 55 2/3 innings around two separate stints on the injured list. The first came at the beginning of the year due to shoulder fatigue that popped up in the offseason, and his second came in August when he dealt with what ended up being season-ending right mild teres major inflammation.
Those results are fine, but it’s hard to see a world where he cracks $20 million given that injury history. He signed a one-year, $14 million deal with the Guardians for 2025 before making $16 million last season in Toronto after he surprisingly picked up the player option that was in the deal he signed with the Guardians.
Part of the reason why Bieber picked up that player option likely stemmed from his uncertain health situation, but he doesn’t have that fallback this offseason. Bieber has made it clear that he wants to stay in Toronto, but there may not be enough room for him.
This winter’s lockout could also play a factor in Bieber’s free agent market, as most insiders think there’s going to be a frenzy of movement before the Dec. 1 lockout so free agents can get a contract under the current CBA.
Bieber’s not the kind of pitcher he was during his heyday, but he’s still a talented starter. This winter will tell us the Guardians still think there’s enough left in his arm to give him another chance in Cleveland.
