Improving command will be essential for Triston McKenzie

The upcoming season is going to be a crucial one for Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Triston McKenzie. Once thought to be a long-term part of Cleveland's starting rotation, the 27-year-old McKenzie finds his career at a crossroads.

Between injuries and struggles on the mound, McKenzie has started 20 major league games for the Guardians over the last two seasons, 16 of which came in 2024. McKenzie has a 5.11 ERA, 1.560 WHIP, and 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings during this span (91.2 innings). This is not up to the standard he established over his first three seasons (3.68 ERA, 1.027 WHIP, 9.6 K/9) and is a clear cause for concern.

A major contributing factor to McKenzie's struggles has been the rate at which he has walked batters over the past two seasons. McKenzie's walk rate has jumped from 2.9 in his first 64 appearances to 6.1, this is a big problem.

When pitchers struggle with their command, the first instinct is to rely on their go-to pitch, and for McKenzie, that is his fastball. 52.4% of McKenzie's pitches from last season were four-seam fastballs, this resulted in opponents batting .303 and slugging .652 with 16 home runs and six doubles. Opposing batters did not fear McKenzie's fastball last season, and by the looks of it, they welcomed it.

Not helping matters has been McKenzie's struggles to throw first-pitch strikes, with his 52.9 first-pitch strike percentage being the lowest of his career. Opposing batters would slash .242/.406/.565 against McKenzie with 12 home runs and two doubles after getting ahead 1-0. This would be less of a problem if McKenzie was more effective when throwing his fastball, but as noted above, that is not the case.

McKenzie is in contention for a spot in Cleveland's starting rotation, and there is going to be an intense focus on how he performs in spring training. Granted, the primary objective in spring is process over results, but if McKenzie is still struggling to throw first-pitch strikes and continues to walk batters on a regular basis, it would not bode well for his future in Cleveland.

The Guardians have already sent McKenzie down to the minors due to his performance, but they will not have that luxury this time around. McKenzie is out of minor league options, and if those in charge of constructing the roster do not believe that enough improvement has been made, it could very well lead to some uncomfortable conversations taking place that very few people, if anyone, thought would ever be on the table.