How MLB's upcoming labor negotiations could force Guardians to change organizational approach

Although we're entering the stretch run of the 2026 MLB season, the idea of the 2027 season has become a hot topic in the baseball world due to this impending expiration of the spot's current CBA.

There is seemingly an even split of people who believe there will be a full season without any games lost, a portion of people who believe there will be a shortened season, and a portion of people who believe there won't be a season at all.

Here is my prediction for what we will see based off my reading of the tea leaves, and how that could affect the Guardians moving forward.

The upcoming MLB CBA negiations could have huge ramifcations on the Guardians

What is the key issue?

The MLB and MLBPA have a Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) that is set to expire this offseason. Both the MLB Players Association (MLBPA) and the owners have started negotiations, where there are a variety things being debated.

But the main talking point and disagreement surrounds the introduction of a salary cap and salary floor. The MLBPA is against a salary cap because it limits players earning potential, while the owners are typically against floors because they have to empty more of their checkbooks.

The owners wasted no time putting the ball in the MLBPA's court by including a floor in their proposal, so all that is left is to see if the players will accept a cap (and how much it will be). 

How could this affect the 2027 season?

It's hard to believe the upcoming negotiations won't impact the 2027 season based on what players have said to the media about how they're never going to accept a salary cap no matter what.

However, I see a lot of similarities between this and the NFL/NFLPA’s last negotiation when star players who were on or about to sign big contracts were very outspoken about how a holdout could be imminent.

But once it was time for the NFLPA to vote, the labor agreement ended up passing because the vast majority of players know they have a limited amount of time to make money and a floor is going to help more players than a cap will hurt.

Due to this, I think that the MLBPA will accept a deal before most people expect (and I assume some superstars will be vocally against the decision). 

How would this affect Cleveland? 

The actual numbers are not known, but it doesn't take a crystal ball to imagine that a cap wouldn't be a factor for the Guardians based off their previous spending. However, a floor would force their hand to give out more money.

According to Spotrac's projections for 2027, the Guardians are set to spend just $51 million, which is 27th among MLB teams.

Whatever numbers are ultimately agreed upon, Cleveland is going to have to make some financial decisions.

In-house extensions

One of the easiest ways to increase payroll is to give extensions to players already on the roster.

Young players like Travis Bazzana and Chase DeLauter are obvious extension candidates since the Guardians would be able to buy out their arbitration years (if it still exists under the new CBA), while new addition Foster Griffin is on the last year of control and would be easy to give a few years to. 

Another thing that could happen in a world with a salary floor/cap is an offseason where teams make a ton of transactions with salary in mind.

There will likely be some teams who need to shed salary due to a cap, so there could be a lot of trades where teams trade a prospect on a small contract for a veteran who is on a decent sized contract.

Some teams will also be more aggressive trying to sign players in free agency to help their roster while complying with the new regulations.

What to avoid?

A key problem that frequently arises when there is an increase/introduction of a floor: players get paid well above their worth (looking at you, NBA).

In order to be compliant with the salary floor, teams could sign players to contracts that are obvious overpays so that way they're able to get above that floor.

It's important that the Guardians' front office avoids these landmines. If the negotiations come down to the wire and the Guardians are forced to adapt right before the start of the 2027 season, it's imperative they find players willing to take one-year deals so they can adjust for 2028. 

Ultimately there are a ton of questions on what the end result of the negotiations are going to be.

Games could be impacted, the season could never start, or we may get to Opening Day without delay. The exact results of the negotiations are also unknown, but it does seem like in any situation, the Guardians are going to have to give out money in a way that has not been done in Cleveland in a long time.

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