How Emilio Pagán’s deal could help the Guardians acquire one of MLB’s best relievers

On Wednesday, the Cincinnati Reds signed reliever Emilio Pagán to a two-year, $20 million deal that provided the baseball landscape with the first look at what a “B-tier” reliever will cost. 

While his signing wasn’t the first contract a reliever inked in free agency (both Devin Williams and Ryan Helsley signed multi-year contracts over the weekend), it was the first big signing from a reliever who is a step below them. 

And, based on Pagán’s deal costing $20 and Phil Maton signing for a reported value of $14.5 million, it seems like the relief market won’t break the bank this offseason. 

That should be music to the Guardians’ ears, especially when it comes to their (hopeful) pursuit of Tyler Rogers in free agency.

Tyler Rogers should be at the top of the Guardians' offseason wish list

Although the Guardians’ front office dipped their toes into the free agent relief market on Wednesday with their signing of Connor Brogdon to a major league deal worth $900,000, there’s still more work to be done at the back of the bullpen, even if the presence of Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Erik Sabrowski helps. 

With Pagán off the board, some other free agent relievers who could help the Guardians are Mark Keiter Jr., Pete Fairbanks and Rogers, among others. 

Fairbanks is an intriguing option given he has experience closing for the Rays but he had an $11 million option for 2026 that the Rays declined, so he may be asking for a bit more than Pagán and Maton got. Leiter also stands out both because he won’t break the bank (he was projected to make $3 million through arbitration in 2026) and has better peripherals than his numbers suggest. 

But Rogers may end up being the best option. While his sinker sits at just 83 miles per hour and he gets hitters to whiff just 15.9% of the time, he’s coming off a season where he had a 1.98 ERA across 77 1/3 innings with the Giants and Mets. He’s led the National League in appearances in two straight seasons (77 and 81, respectively) and finished last year ranked in the top percentile in walk and strikeout rate. 

Everyone in baseball found out how valuable he was at the deadline when the Mets traded three top 30 prospects for a half-season of him, and now he’ll get a chance to capitalize on that in free agency through a modest deal. 

Rogers only has 19 career saves (13 of which came in 2021), but that lack of ninth experience wouldn’t be as big of a deal on the Guardians due to their aforementioned high-leverage arms. Rogers would likely command a contact similar to Pagan’s, but it would be money well spent. 

He could easily slot into a seventh inning role ahead of Gaddis and Smith, or could enter the game earlier to try to stymie a left-handed bopper (southpaws have an OPS of just .625 against him). 

The loss of Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz to non-disciplinary paid leave for the foreseeable future will undoubtedly hamper the front office’s ability to build a team, but that shouldn’t stop them from adding Rogers on an affordable deal if the option is there.