Guardians’ Tanner Bibee decision looks better after Tarik Skubal arbitration ruling

For most of the past three seasons, Tanner Bibee and Tarik Skubal have ranked as two of the best starting pitchers in the American League Central. 

While Skubal stands above Bibee in on field production thanks to the fact that he’s won back-to-back American League Cy Youngs, there’s no denying the Guardians are in a better spot with their payroll thanks to their decision to ink Bibee to a five-year, $48 million extension last spring. 

While that statement was true all of last season, it became even more true on Thursday thanks to Skubal winning his arbitration case against the Tigers, which means that he’s going to make $32 million next season before hitting free agency. 

And don’t get us wrong. The Tigers having Skubal on their roster is a clear win since he’s the best pitcher in baseball and got some huge help on Wednesday thanks to the Tigers signing Framber Valdez in free agency. 

But Skubal’s record-setting arbitration hearing shows that he’s going to seek a record-setting contract next winter, and it’s hard to believe the Tigers are going to be the ones to give it to him. 

The Guardians were smart to jump the Tarik Skubal line with Tanner Bibee’s extension 

Skubal’s arbitration settlement is historic for a variety of reasons. Not only is it significantly higher than the $19.75 salary that David Price settled on with the Red Sox for 2015 (which used to be the record for pitchers), but it’s $1 million higher than the $31 salary that Juan Soto signed with the Yankees ahead of 2024. The Tigers had submitted a figure of $19 million.

Since Skubal has five-plus years of service time, he and his agent Scott Boras could compare his situation and salary to any MLB player, not just part arbitration-eligible players (which is the usual precedent). 

And Skubal’s in an incredibly unique situation given he’s compiled a 2.30 ERA in 387 1/3 innings across the past two seasons while winning those aforementioned Cy Young awards. 

And while not every pitcher who goes through arbitration will have two Cy Young wins under their belt like Skubal, this ruling sets a new precedent for arbitration-eligible pitchers with five-plus years of service time. 

Bibee’s only at three years of service time (which seems hard to believe given how much of a mainstay he’s been with the Guardians), so there’s an alternate universe where he and the Guardians are duking it out over an extremely-high arbitration figure two winters from now thanks to Skubal’s precedent.

Instead, they already know they’re going to pay Bibee $10.4 million at that juncture in his career thanks to a slightly blow-market extension that looks better by the day (even if he had an up-and-down 2025). 

That’s a clear win for the Guardians.