Over the weekend, the power balance in the National League suffered a bit of a shift when Philadelphia Phillies reliever Brad Keller suffered a UCL tear that’s going to keep him out for the rest of the 2026 (at the very least).
Normally, such an injury doesn’t mean a huge deal to the Guardians since they’ve already played their regular season series against the Phillies and will only see them again if they face off in the World Series.
But with the trade deadline just two weeks away, things are a bit different now considering every team is going to be swimming in the same pond when it comes to adding reinforcements.
Keller’s injury is a perfect example of everyone swimming in the same pond considering the Phillies are now likely going to throw everything they can at getting bullpen help. Not only are they built to win, but they also have an aggressive general manager in Dave Dombrowski.
While bullpen help is always going to be expensive at the deadline given it’s something every team needs, Dombrowski and the Phillies being heavily involved in the mix means the price just went for every team — the Guardians included.
The Phillies' desperation could result in the Guardians being priced out at trade deadline
Keller’s injury is an obvious loss for the Phillies, who gave him a two-year, $22 million contract in the offseason after he lingered in free agency.
While the Phillies of previous years had the talent needed to be able to withstand the loss of someone of Keller’s status, things are a bit different this year. Not only do they have the worst on-base percentage in baseball (.305), but they also have a bullpen ERA of 4.34.
Although the Guardians’ bullpen is clearly better than the Phillies, they still need to add a high-leverage arm or two behind Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis.
Once you get past Aroldis Chapman and Josh Hader (two closer options who the Guardians wouldn’t go after regardless), the top bullpen arms who could be available are A.J. Minter, Pete Fairbanks, Brooks Raley and Antonio Senzatela.
Normally it takes a prospect or two to acquire one of those arms at the deadline. Although the Phillies don’t have the same kind of prospect talent pipeline as the Guardians, Dombrowski is a gambler who isn’t afraid to scrape his pipeline clean to help his big league system.
And it wouldn’t be a surprise if he used that limited prospect capital on a reliever and trust that his old (and expensive) lineup figures things out.
That scenario seems like the Guardians’ front office’s worst nightmare given they love holding onto their prospects and tend to stick to their asking price when it comes to trade returns.
Luckily for the Guardians, they already have some other arms who have shown they can step up, namely Franco Aleman and Erik Sabrowski.
But if there’s one thing that Keller’s injury showed, it’s that a lot can change in the time between now and the Aug. 3 trade deadline.
