Guardians' projected arbitration numbers could be final nail in Steven Kwan's coffin

Arbitration is an important part of the major league baseball team-building process. While it’s a unique system unlike any other in sports, it (theoretically) allows for small-market teams to retain their young talent through the first six years of their career before having to worry about their free agency market. 

But, as we may find out with Steven Kwan this offseason, not every arbitration eligible player lasts on their original roster through all six of their arbitration-eligible years. 

On Monday, MLB Trade Rumors Matt Swartz put together a list of projected arbitration salaries for the 2026 season using their proprietary algorithm that takes into consideration a player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation.

And, as a part of his projections, he had Steven Kwan making $8.8 million in his second foray through arbitration. Not an eye-popping figure in terms of major league contracts, but a pretty steep salary for the normally frugal Guardians. 

If Kwan ends up making that much through arbitration, he'd have the Guardians' third-highest salary behind José Ramírez and Tanner Bibee (assuming that Emmanuel Clase's contract comes off the books).

And don’t get us wrong, Kwan deserves every bit of whatever he’ll make through arbitration. He made $4.18 million this season in his first trip through arbitration, and he added another All-Star nod and likely Gold Glove win to his résumé this season. 

While Kwan wasn’t traded at the deadline, he’s going to be a mainstay in trade rumors this offseason, and his expensive price tag won’t do anything to dissuade that. He has two years of team control left (he’ll enter next season with exactly 4.000 years of service time), which is around the time where the Guardians begin to consider trades on players regardless. 

Steven Kwan's rising arbitration price tag could result in him being traded in the offseason

Now, Kwan has gone on the record and said that he wants to stay in Cleveland, but it also seems clear that he has a clear figure in mind of how much he’s worth and he won’t move from that number. 

Extension talks between the two parties haven’t gone anywhere before; could this spring training be the one where it happens? 

Elsewhere on the Guardians roster, pitchers Kolby Allard ($1.9 million), Sam Hentges ($1.3375 million), Ben Lively ($2.7 million) and Matt Festa ($1 million) were all projected to have affordable contracts. 

It’s worth noting that some players end up avoiding arbitration with their respective team by agreeing to a one-year contract with a commiserate value so that way the parties don’t have to go through the arbitration process. 

As an example, the Guardians agreed to a one-year, $1.375 million contract with Hentges last year to avoid arbitration since he was injured. They’ll probably do the same thing this offseason since Hentges didn’t pitch this year while continuing to rehab from Tommy John surgery. 

They’ll likely end up doing the same thing with Lively since he’s set to miss all of next season while recovering from his Tommy John surgery. 

While the Guardians signed Allard as a minor league free agent last year, he’ll enter next season with a little more than five years of service time, which means this is his final bite at the arbitration apple. Keeping him at an affordable contract under $2 million makes a ton of sense given the value he provides in the bullpen. 

On the position player side, Nolan Jones ($2 million), Will Brennan ($900,000) and David Fry ($1.2 million) also have affordable price tags. 

Festa (2.153 years of service time), Fry (2.154) and Brennan (2.155) are all Super Two players, which means they qualified for arbitration despite not having three full years of service time. 

Fry seems like a lock to come back, but things are a bit more uncertain with Jones and Brennan. Jones led the team in right field appearances but hit just .211, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he was non-tendered. Brennan also holds value, but he missed almost all of the season due to a variety of injuries. 

The Guardians have a plethora of young outfielders who seem poised for more playing time this season, which could lead to Brennan being on the outside looking in once the club restructures his roster in the offseason.