Guardians Playoff Tiebreakers: Who wins between Tigers, Red Sox, Astros?

A month ago, it seemed like the Guardians fans were going to spend September learning about some of the new players on the roster as opposed to worrying about a variety of postseason tiebreakers. 

But here we are. While there have still been plenty of new players to learn about (Petey Halpin is the second member of the Guardians’ ill-fated 2020 MLB Draft to make his MLB debut after Logan Allen), the Guardians’ recent run of play has resulted in the fanbase needing to worry about a dizzying amount of tiebreaker scenarios. 

Major League Baseball got rid of using a deciding game as a tiebreaker in 2022 (commonly called Game 163), which means that ties are now broken using a variety of statistical categories. 

The first tiebreaker (and the one that ends up deciding seemingly every race) is head-to-head record. So if the Guardians end up in a tie with the Tigers in the American League Central or with the Red Sox or Astros in the Wild Card, the team with the better head-to-head record will end up winning the race. If they’re also tied there then it would be decided by intradivision record. 

Here’s what you need to know about the Guardians’ tiebreaker scenarios. 

The Guardians have multiple paths to make the postseason

Detroit Tigers 

We’ll start in the division. At one point this year, the Guardians were 15 1/2 games back in the division; now they’re just one game back of the Tigers ahead of a huge three-game series this week. 

If the Guardians sweep the Tigers then Cleveland would hold a two-game lead in the division and would need just one win or Tigers loss over the weekend to clinch the division. 

If the Guardians win two of three, both teams would be tied atop the division and the Guardians would hold the tiebreaker heading into the final series.

If the Guardians only win one game, they’d be two games back in the division but would still hold the tiebreaker.

If the Tigers pick up a sweep then they’d clinch the division and the Guardians’ only path to the postseason would be via the Wild Card. 

The Guardians officially turned the American League Central into a race with their sweep of the Tigers last week, and they have a chance to pull off the unthinkable this week by sweeping Detroit.

Gavin Williams will try to outduel Tarik Skubal on Tuesday before Gavin Williams goes against Jack Flaherty on Wednesday. The Tigers haven't announced who will go against Parker Messick on Thursday.

Houston Astros 

While the Guardians are currently tied with the Astros for the third and final Wild Card spot in the American League, the Guardians would be in the playoffs if the season ended today by virtue of having the head-to-head tiebreaker. 

The Guardians nabbed that tiebreaker thanks to a stunning three-game sweep of the Astros in Houston in July that ended a 10-game losing streak. They went 1-2 against the Astros in a series between the two teams at Progressive Field in June. 

The Astros end the season with series against The Athletics and Angels, which means the Guardians will likely need to go 4-2 (at least) down the stretch to keep pace with Houston. 

Red Sox

Boston currently sits a game ahead of the Guardians in the Wild Card Race, but it’s really like two games since the Red Sox hold the tiebreaker between the two teams after going 4-2 against Cleveland this season.

The Red Sox finish the season with a three-game series against the Blue Jays (who are trying to win the American League East) before welcoming the Tigers to Fenway Park for a three-game series. 

That could end up being an incredibly important series for the Guardians depending on how things go this week against the Tigers. 

While there’s still a chance the Guardians could leapfrog over the Red Sox for the second Wild Card spot, the division presents the easiest path to the postseason thanks to their series against the Tigers. 

The Guardians have gone on an incredible run to be in a place where they can control their postseason destiny. The next six days will determine whether it’s a run that will continue into October.