Guardians playoff odds shift show how little outsiders know of ironclad process

Last week the Cleveland Guardians turned into one of their worst weeks of the season when they limped to series losses against the Nationals and Red Sox while hitting just one home run. 

While that series dampened a bit of the hype around the Guardians, they’re still seven games above .500 and have a 75.4% chance to make the postseason, per Fangraphs.

While that kind of success shouldn’t be much of a surprise to anyone located in Northeast Ohio, it seems to have caught the rest of MLB by surprise, as Cleveland’s current postseason odds are nearly 60% higher than the 16.3% mark they had entering the season. 

The Guardians are once again defying the odds

The Guardians’ huge odds increase is second only to the Rays, whose odds have jumped exactly 60% from 29.5% to 89.6%. Meanwhile, the Guardians’ went from opening the season with 16.3% odds to make the postseason to 75.4%. 

Cleveland’s jump in odds is twofold. The biggest reason for that jump has obviously been their play on the field. They may not be perfect, but they’ve gotten their patented strong starting pitching, an All-Star-worthy season from Cade Smith and some incredible production from the rookies on their roster. 

They also haven’t had much competition from the rest of their division. The Tigers have bottomed out. The Twins have no pitching left. The Royals can’t hit. 

Their biggest interdivision competition seems to be the spunky White Sox, but they just lost star rookie Munetaka Murakami to a hamstring strain that should keep him out for weeks. 

This isn’t the first time the Guardians have defied the odds, either. They’ve won three of the past four American League Central titles despite never ranking as the preseason favorite, and won the division last year despite trailing by 15 1/2 games at one point. 

That said, it didn’t come as much of a surprise when the prediction algorithms weren’t fans of them coming into the season. They didn’t do much to upgrade their middling offense, and there were still questions about whether they were going to replace Emmanuel Clase’s production over the course of a full season. 

But they’ve answered those questions emphatically with their strong start to the season. That same kind of logic applies to the Rays, who didn't spend in free agency (surprise surprise) despite having a disappointing 77-85 record last year. 

But they sprinkled more of their small-market devil magic over their roster and are in first place in the American League East thanks to some strong pitching and a high-powered offense. 

The Guardians may not be the same kind of high-powered machine they were during the halcyon days of the late 2010s, but it’s clear that Chris Antonetti and his front office are on the same page when it comes to building the Guardians’ roster. 

And right now, that cohesion has resulted in a lot of winning.

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