Guardians not being in on Justin Verlander might be a good thing

It would have certainly been something if the Cleveland Guardians had gone out and signed someone who terrorized them on a regular basis in the manner that Justin Verlander has throughout his career. But as it turns out, Cleveland missing out on Verlander may not be a bad thing after all.

The almost 42-year-old struggled in 2024, posting a 5.48 ERA and 1.384 WHIP in 17 appearances for the Houston Astros. When going beyond those surface stats, things become alarming rather quickly and signal that he might not be able to rebound in 2025.

Justin Havens of the Baseball is Dead podcast points out that there are some underlying numbers with Verlander that are very concerning. Verlander posted some of his worst numbers in a very long time last season, most notably an 18.7% strikeout rate and an almost career-worst OPS allowed of .716.

When looking at specific pitches, Verlander's fastball averaged 93.5 MPH, his lowest velocity in nearly a decade, while the wOBA allowed off of his fastball was the worst in his entire career. If that seems bad, Verlander's secondary pitches have experienced a three-year trend of decreased effectiveness.

Verlander has seen his curveball go from a .158 batting average against and a .267 slugging percentage allowed in 2022 to .340 and .560, respectively, in 2024, hardly an encouraging trend. The whiff rate on his slider has also dropped, from 34.6% in 2022 to 21.5% last season, again, this is concerning. It does not seem like Verlander's pitching arsenal is trending in the right direction, and things may continue to get worse as his career progresses.

Perhaps Verlander ultimately decided to sign in San Francisco hoping that the environmental factors of pitching in that ballpark could help his overall performance. Oracle Park is very much a pitcher's park and could result in a bounce-back performance that may not have been possible anywhere else, particularly in Cleveland.