Guardians need stability from their rotation in 2025

Stability is not a word that anyone should associate with the starting rotation of the Cleveland Guardians last season. This was a group that saw plenty of change in 2024, and the Guardians were able to overcome the challenges this presented. And while Cleveland was able to win the American League Central and make an appearance in the ALCS, they will need their rotation to have some level of stability if they are going to improve upon last season's success.

When evaluating pitchers who started a game for the Guardians last year, Tanner Bibee is the only one returning that can be counted on once the season begins. Bibee elevated his performance in 2024 and has clearly thrown his hat into the ring to be considered Cleveland's next Ace. It is when going past Bibee that concerns begin to grow.

Of the arms expected to be available on Opening Day, Gavin Williams appears to be the next best option for the Guardians. For Williams, it comes down to consistency. When Williams is on, he is on, but when something is just a little bit off, his effectiveness wanes, and that often results in shorter outings with less desirable pitching lines. If he is able to reign everything in and strengthen his command, it would go a long way toward stabilizing Cleveland's rotation.

The next group of arms is when things get a little bit murky

Ben Lively, Triston McKenzie, and Logan Allen will all have an opportunity to break Cleveland's rotation out of spring, but this is not necessarily the most encouraging group of pitchers. Lively is a back-of-the-rotation starter who is capable of eating innings, a trait that was very useful last season. However, as 2024 progressed, his performance regressed, showcasing why his career has played out in the manner it has.

McKenzie and Allen both struggled mightily last season and spent a considerable amount of time in the minors in an attempt to correct their issues. These two seem to be on their last chances in Cleveland, and it would not be a surprise to see them elsewhere this time next year.

New faces could provide help but that is not a guarantee

Credit where credit is due, the front office of the Guardians knew that their pitching staff needed help and they made a couple of moves to bring in some new arms in Luis Ortiz and Slade Cecconi. These two could get their chance next season, however, it seems like the Guardians will give the aforementioned McKenzie and Allen priority while allowing them to pitch themselves out of Cleveland's plans moving forward.

Ortiz did manage to post some respectable numbers last year with Pittsburgh (3.32 ERA and 1.113 WHIP), but he does not generate enough ground balls or strike out enough batters, and that could result in less desirable pitching lines. It would not be surprising to see Ortiz's pitching lines resemble something close to his first two seasons (4.73 ERA, 1.607 WHIP) than what he displayed in 2024.

When it comes to Cecconi, this is someone the front office must believe that they can work their pitching voodoo with. Cecconi has rarely been impressive during his time in the Diamondbacks organization, and that is very concerning, considering that the Guardians essentially dumped Josh Naylor for his services. Time will tell if this was the right move, but it certainly does not seem like it as things stand currently.

Last but not least, the former Cy Young Award Winner

Shane Bieber is the one pitcher who could bring the stability this rotation really needs. The only problem is that he will not be available at the start of the season. Bieber is expected to miss a considerable amount of the season and may not be available until the second half of 2025. This presents a problem for Cleveland, as the non-Bibee components of their rotation are very much a question mark. The good news here is that once the Guardians sort through who should and should not be in their rotation through the early parts of the season, Bieber will be able to step in and elevate the rotation's talent floor.

The only concern with Bieber is what version of him the Guardians will get in 2025. Will it be the brief but elite performance in 2024, or will he return to his previous form of good, not great, with diminished velocity and decreased strikeout frequency? The answer to this question will ultimately change the trajectory of the Guardians' late-season push. Of course, that is assuming they are in the mix for a playoff spot at that time.

It is simply too hard to predict what the Guardians will get out of most of the arms available to them next season. No one can definitively say how things will play out in 2025 for Cleveland, and that is a direct result of how their rotation is constructed. Sure, there are some pieces that could work out and be meaningful contributors, but there is too much potential variance that exists to say whether their staff can make it through next season successfully. However, if they are able to get some form of stability over the course of the season with the arms currently on their roster and maybe an addition or two, there is no limit to how far they can go in 2025.