Guardians must consider Astros' pitching approach after Tatsuya Imai signing

The end of last season was the Guardians’ rotation at the peak of its powers, as the Guardians’ starting unit finished the final month of the year with a 2.60 ERA across the final 27 games of the year. 

While part of the reason for that was due to strong months from Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams one of the biggest reasons for that peak in performance was seemingly due to the Guardians shifting over to a six-man rotation for the final month of the season after Joey Cantillo was recalled from Triple-A. 

Not only did that decision allow for the Guardians to get a look at rookies Parker Messick and Joey Cantillo (who ended up winning AL Rookie of the Month for September), it helped them limit the amount of stress on a taxed bullpen that was still navigating the loss of Emmanuel Clase. 

Even though the Guardians have replenished their bullpen coffers by bringing in seemingly every free agent reliever under the sun, they haven’t touched their starting rotation this offseason, which signifies the front office’s trust in the unit. 

But it seems like it could be a unit that only starts the year with five rotations, as every indication has made it seem like the Guardians are shifting back toward a five-man rotation for 2026, meaning that someone is going to be on the outside looking in. 

Is that the right choice? 

The Guardians should consider going back to a six-man rotation for 2026 

The idea of a six-man rotation moved into the baseball zeitgeist earlier this week when Houston Astros manager Joe Espada said that the Astros could consider opening the season with a six-man rotation after the team signed Japanese starter Tatsuya Imai in free agency. 

While part of that decision is due to Imai’s background in working on five days' rest (which is more common in Japan), part of it is also due to the bevy of starting options they have behind Imai in Hunter Brown, Mike Burrows, Ryan Weiss, Cristian Javier and Nate Pearson. 

Even if that six-man rotation will limit Houston’s versatility, it could give them a leg up on the pitching side since they’ll have more arms who could be more fresh. 

The biggest reason the Guardians don’t seem to be considering opening the season with a six-man rotation is because of that lack of flexibility. It’s one thing to run a six-man rotation in September when teams have an additional roster spot for pitchers. 

If the Guardians elected to open the 2026 season with a six-man rotation, then that means they’re going to have to cut someone out of that revamped bullpen, which doesn’t seem likely given that was the one position the team targeted as upgrades. 

But it’s clear the Guardians have six MLB-ready starting options with a couple more down the pipe. Bibee (1.30 ERA in September) and Williams (1.88 ERA) are obvious locks at the top of the rotation, as is Slade Cecconi (3.90 ERA). Cantillo (1.55) should also be a lock since he won AL Rookie of the Year in September and doesn’t have any minor league options for 2026. 

That leaves Parker Messick and Logan Allen fighting for the final two spots in the rotation, which presents a bit of an interesting argument. Messick lit the world on fire last season after being called up in August (2.72 ERA in 39 2/3 innings), but he’s still a work-in-progress as a pitcher. 

Allen on the other hand has a career 4.48 ERA in three seasons and is a serviceable innings-eater. Even if he’s reached his ceiling, having him in the rotation (and giving everyone else a day off) could help level the rotation up the same way it did last September 

The Astros seem willing to do that; it remains to be seen if the Guardians are willing to do the same.