Final Guardians prediction before non-tender deadline

We’re less than four hours away from MLB’s non-tender deadline, which means teams across MLB are bracing for an evening filled with a variety of moves where teams reshuffle their roster ahead of the start of hot stove season. 

And although the Guardians won’t be in on some of the big names available in free agency this year, they should still be active later today thanks to the fact that almost all of the players on their 40-man roster will need to be tendered a contract (Tanner Bibee, José Ramírez and Austin Hedges are the three with guaranteed contracts for next season). 

While most of the other 37 have no-brainer contract situations since they’re not eligible for arbitration, the Guardians still have some big decisions to make regarding some noteworthy players on their roster. 

Even though Guardians already tightened the picture when they outrighted Kolby Allard and Ben Lively off the roster, they still need to make decisions about whether they want to tender a contract to Sam Hentges, Steven Kwan, Nolan Jones, Will Brennan, David Fry and Matt Festa. 

At face value, it wouldn’t be surprising if all six of those players are brought back in some capacity given the value they could bring to the Guardians. But that doesn’t mean it’s a guarantee. 

With that in mind, we’re going to take a look into our crystal ball and try to predict the fate of all six arbitration-eligible Guardians ahead of tonight’s deadline. 

Note: all arbitration salaries are based on projections from MLB Trade Rumors’ Matt Swartz. 

The Guardians have plenty of decisions to make at the non-tender deadline

Sam Hentges ($1.3375 million) 

The Guardians avoided arbitration with Hentges last season by agreeing to a $1.3 million deal to avoid arbitration, and we think that exact same thing happens again this year. 

Hentges didn’t pitch at all in 2025 while recovering due to arm and knee injuries, but he had morphed into a left-handed bullpen weapon prior to getting hurt. If Hentges were healthy then he’d be a valuable trade piece, but dealing him now would be selling when his value is at its lowest. 

Steven Kwan ($8.8 million) 

Although Kwan’s name has been floating in trade rumors for months because of the raise he’s due in arbitration, he’s going to stay in Cleveland (for now).

Yes, his production has fallen off in the second half of every season that he’s played in, but he’s still the heartbeat at the top of the Guardians’ lineup and is also one of the best defenders in Cleveland.

While Kwan’s time in Cleveland could come to an end at some point this season, it won’t be on Friday. 

Nolan Jones ($2 million) 

On the other hand, it seems like Friday will mark the end of Jones’ time on the Guardians’ roster. The Guardians acquired him at the end of spring training in the hopes that he could solve their long-standing problems in right field, and he responded by hitting just .211 despite having solid batted ball metrics. 

Jones has all the tools needed to succeed, but his second stint in Cleveland left a lot to be desired. Jones seems like a perfect candidate to be outrighted off the roster if the Guardians can’t find anyone who would take him in a trade. 

Will Brennan ($900K) 

Brennan presents an interesting litmus test for the Guardians’ front office. He has good bat-to-ball skills and is an above-average defender in the outfield, but he only played in six games last season and had a subpar showing in 2023. 

Brennan’s contract isn’t going to break the bank, but he also stands out as someone who could be expendable if the Guardians need to free up another roster spot for an external addition. 

While we think that he survives Friday’s deadline, he could be on borrowed time. 

David Fry ($1.2 million) 

Fry was another player who had his 2025 season altered by injury — so much so that MLB Trade Rumors’ Anthony Franco listed him as a potential non-tender candidate earlier this week. 

Although Fry hit just .171 last season, he was hampered by the offseason shoulder surgery that limited him to just being a designated hitter.

Fry’s at his best when he’s bounced around the diamond and mashing lefties, and that skillset makes his projected $1.2 million contract a bargain. We think Fry sticks in Cleveland unless another team blows the Guardians away with a trade offer. 

Matt Festa ($1 million)

“Everyday” Matt Festa was a staple in the Guardians’ bullpen last season, as he appeared in 63 after being acquired from the Rangers at the end of April. 

Festa is a… divisive player amongst Guardians fans, but he was an important piece of the bullpen puzzle who is clearly trusted by Stephen Vogt. Festa’s a solid depth piece who is arguably a bargain at $1 million. That said, his success will largely depend on what situations Vogt uses him in.