Don't be fooled by Gabriel Arias' success in winter ball

There once was a time when it seemed like Gabriel Arias could play a meaningful role for the Cleveland Guardians. Acquired from San Diego in the trade that also saw Josh Naylor and Austin Hedges come to Cleveland with Mike Clevinger going to the Padres, Arias has struggled to find his footing in the majors.

Slashing just .212/.274/.350 with 25 doubles and 14 home runs, it has not been a particularly productive time for Arias in Cleveland. The power output that has been on display in the minors has not translated to the majors, resulting in many questioning how much longer he will remain with the Guardians organization. However, a recent stretch of impressive play in the Venezuelan Winter League has led to some falling for a very obvious trap, believing that Arias has finally figured it out and can be a meaningful contributor for the Guardians, and unfortunately, that is simply not the case.

In eight games with Tiburones de La Guaira, Arias has a .500/.583/.1.167 slash line with five doubles and five home runs. Granted, this is impressive and has contributed to some of his biggest online supporters becoming even more vocal, but do not be fooled as this is not an accurate indicator of Arias' talent level.

Has Arias been an everyday player in Cleveland? Not, but with 563 plate appearances over 191 games, we have a pretty good idea who he is as a major leaguer. Arias is someone who is going to hit the occasional home run or double while striking out over 30% of the time. A high strikeout rate can be tolerable if it comes with a good amount of power and a high walk frequency, but Arias' lack of home runs as a Guardian and a walk rate sitting at 7.5% for his career does not qualify.

The best path forward for all parties involved here is for Arias to continue his hot streak at the plate in Venezuela. This could result in the Guardians possibly being able to trade him to another team. The return is not going to be anything remarkable, but seeing his time in Cleveland come to an end while sending him to a team that can afford to play him on a regular basis to see if there is anything more to him than what he has shown would work out for everyone.