Crossroads in Cleveland: The Guardians' looming trade deadline dilemma

The Cleveland Guardians currently sit at a pivotal juncture in their season, as there's just 40 games between them and the trade deadline. They currently have a record of 35-32, and sit eight games behind the Detroit Tigers and one game behind the Minnesota Twins.

While it's a good sign that they're so close to a playoff spot, their record this year stands in stark contrast to last year when they boasted a robust 43-22 record at this point in the season.

The most significant factor in this year's performance disparity appears to be a noticeable dip in offensive production.

The Guardians currently rank near the bottom of MLB in these key hitting categories: batting average (.234), OPS (.684) and runs scored (265). At this time last season, Cleveland had already pushed across 301 runs. While they're hitting for more power this year (69 home runs compared to 66 last year), they are struggling to consistently get on base and drive in runs.

This offensive slump casts a long shadow over the Guardians' strategy as the July 31 trade deadline approaches. Will they look to be buyers and bolster their roster for a playoff push, or will they pivot to sellers and try to retool for the future?

The Selling Scenario: Bolstering the farm

If the Guardians fail to ignite their offense and fall further out of contention, several players could become valuable trade chips:

Carlos Santana

The veteran first baseman is in his second stint with Cleveland and is a familiar trade candidate. With a $12 million contract for 2025, he could provide a valuable veteran presence and a solid bat for a contending team. He’d be the perfect bridge player for a team awaiting the arrival of a top prospect. The San Francisco Giants, for example, could be a logical fit as they await a player like Bryce Eldridge. The Guardians could probably get a player or two in exchange for Santana

Shane Bieber

Bieber’s trade value would hinge on his ability to bounce-back from his recent elbow setback.  If he could  string together a few good starts before the deadline, he could become a highly sought-after commodity for pitching-needy contenders like the New York Yankees or Los Angeles Dodgers. Bieber is currently on a two-year, $26 million contract, with a player option for the second year. A significant prospect package would be expected for a healthy and effective Bieber.

Jakob Junis

 A former starting pitcher who has been working out of the bullpen this year, Junis is currently on a 1-year, $4.5 million deal and could attract interest from teams looking to deepen their swingman options.

Lane Thomas

The outfielder has been hampered by injuries this season, which is perhaps the biggest reason why he’s hitting just .161 on the season. 

His trade value would heavily depend on his ability to return to form and provide consistent offensive output before the deadline. Thomas is on an attractive one-year, $7.825 million contract, but he’d need to pick things up quickly for the Guardians to get any value for him.

It's worth noting that a trade involving Santana isn’t out of the question even if the Guardians become buyers, since he could still net a positive return while also opening up room for Kyle Manzardo.

The Buying Scenario: Betting on an offensive resurgence

While the Guardians have had an up-and-down start to the season, there's still a strong argument to be made for the Guardians to become buyers, particularly if their offense can find its stride.

One of the players who seems poised to find his stride is Nolan Jones, as he's the prime example of a player whose underlying metrics suggest a coming surge. While his batting average sits at just .208, his batting average on balls In play (BABIP) is a respectable .283, and he leads the team in average exit velocity.

This indicates he's hitting the ball hard but experiencing some bad luck with where they're landing.
Even with a potential Nolan Jones breakout, the Guardians' outfield offensive production currently ranks 27th in MLB, so it's likely an area the team would still target.

These two outfield targets stand out the most.

Taylor Ward, Angels

Ward is currently batting .204, but he's also smashed 18 home runs this year. In a scenario where Bieber returns to form and pitches well, Logan Allen could become the odd man out of the Guardians' rotation, which would potentially pave the way for a trade centered around Allen and a prospect for Ward.

Ward would be a quasi-rental, as he is arbitration-eligible next year and then a free agent.

Jesús Sánchez, Marlins

Sánchez presents a more expensive acquisition but offers more control, as he's under contract until 2027. He's currently batting .259 with five home runs, and has already been highlighted as a potential trade candidate. He'd undoubtedly command a higher prospect cost due to his years of control, however.

Ultimately, the Guardians' trade deadline strategy hinges on the next 40 games. The team's offensive performance in the coming weeks will dictate whether they should make a move that would help their postseason standing, or elect to trade some impact players in the hopes of building a winner for the future.