Could this 2024 Guardians trade serve as the framework for a Shane Bieber deal?

Last year the Cleveland Guardians decided to roll the dice on Alex Cobb despite Cobb not having played in a game in 2024 due to an injury. 

Could the Guardians use Shane Bieber to be on the other side of a trade like that this year? 

Could the Alex Cobb trade serve as the framework for a Shane Bieber deal?

First things first, it’s worth pointing out this is the lowest Bieber’s value will ever be. He was as close to a lock as you could have to being traded at last year’s deadline, but then he underwent Tommy John surgery last April after 12 dominant innings. 

Bieber’s been recovering ever since, and is quickly approaching an MLB return despite having a slight setback earlier this summer. 

And while his name hasn’t been floated as a serious trade candidate so far during trade deadline season, there’s always a chance some team will take a shot and roll the dice on him in the same way that the Guardians did with Cobb. 

At last year’s deadline, Cobb (who was recovering from offseason hip surgery) had thrown 18 1/3 innings on a rehab assignment, which was enough for Cleveland to decide that he was worth the risk. 

If everything goes according to plan, Bieber’s rehab inning count could sit around that mark, even if the context of his injury is a bit different than Cobb’s. 

Cobb was coming off an All-Star year in 2023 (3.87 ERA in 151 1/3 innings) and had previously thrown 149 strong innings the year before. Meanwhile, Bieber hasn’t thrown an MLB pitch in 15 months and counting, to say nothing of the fact that he’s coming off a serious arm injury.

Normally, a pitcher of Cobb’s talents would net a hefty return on the open market, but the Guardians only had to give up left-handed pitching prospect Jacob Bresnahan (who is currently in Single-A) and infielder Nate Furman, who was included as the Player to be Named Later. 

While it’s hard to believe the Guardians would trade Bieber for such a low return given his résumé (and what he means to the organization), it’s still something the front office has likely considered. 

The only thing that could help Cleveland net a bigger return for Bieber is the extra year of quasi-control that comes with him since he has a $16 million player option for next year.

Although Bieber has the ability to opt out of that option (he has a $4 million buyout), any team in the mix for Bieber would likely get some input about whether he’d pick up that option or not. 

The Guardians’ trade for Cobb ended up being a bit of a wash. He only ended up making three starts in the regular season due to a fingernail issue and he got lit up in both his postseason starts. He signed a one-year, $15 million contract with the Tigers in the offseason but has yet to pitch for them due to a hip injury. 

Although Bieber may not have the same papier-mâché fingernail or bulky hip that Cobb has, he’d likely be on a pitch count for most (if not all) of the season as he works his way back from Tommy John. That may not stop someone from making a move for him at the deadline.