Could the Cleveland Guardians be in for a rough 2025?

The Cleveland Guardians have not embraced the going-for-a-championship approach that most would have preferred following their successful 2024 season, having instead opting to continue their risk-averse and financially conservative strategy that delivers a consistent product on the field but lacks the ability to get over the hump. With this method of operation, it is not exactly a surprise to see the Guardians projected to take a step back in 2025.

According to the PECOTA Standings projections on Baseball Prospectus, Cleveland is slated to finish third in the American League Central Division with 80.4 simulated wins and 81.6 simulated losses. Minnesota (86.2-75.8) and Kansas City (81.1-80.9) are slotted ahead of Cleveland in the Central, while Detroit (79.4-82.6) and Chicago (61.5-100.5) occupy the fourth and fifth spots. This would be a notable step back for the Guardians, as they went 92-69 in 2024, winning the AL Central by 6.5 games.

It is not difficult to see why the Guardians are expected to see a double-digit decrease in wins next season. Josh Naylor and Andres Gimenez have both been traded, with the returns for Cleveland being a bit underwhelming, to say the least. The instant impact most would have preferred in these trades is not present, as Luis Ortiz and Slade Cecconi are the only players Cleveland received with major league experience. Considering that both Ortiz and Cecconi are pitchers and lack extensive track records of success, it really does not move the needle in terms of hoping what they could provide.

The projection for the Guardians in 2025 would look a bit better if they made any acquisitions that would have elevated their talent ceiling. Instead, their actions portray the construction of a team that looks like it will experience plenty of difficulties to match the results from last season. Granted, very few expected the Guardians to play as well as they did in 2024, but it sure seems like they will need far too many best-case-scenario situations to work out in their favor for them to experience a similar result this season.