Can the Cleveland Guardians truly count on Jhonkensy Noel?

There is no doubting the power potential of Cleveland Guardians slugger Jhonkensy Noel. Big Christmas has shown the ability to crush baseballs into the stratosphere, resulting in becoming a fan favorite. However, there are a few concerns regarding his hitting profile that could make it difficult for Noel to be the consistently productive bat the Guardians need him to be.

Noel's 21 extra-base hits in 67 games are encouraging, but there are plenty of areas that suggest rough times could be ahead. With 63 strikeouts compared to 13 walks in 198 plate appearances, Noel does not have a disciplined approach in the batter's box.

It is incredibly difficult to maintain any level of productivity while carrying a 31.8% strikeout rate. It would be one thing if Noel could reach first via base on balls frequently, but his 6.6% walk rate is a long way from that of the career 14.1% mark from Kyle Schwarber, a player that many try to incorrectly compare him to.

The 23-year-old Noel slashed .218/.288/.486 with 13 home runs, seven doubles, and one triple while driving in 28 runs last season. Most of Noel's production came in his first 41 games, slashing .268/.331/.634 with 12 long balls and five two-baggers. Unfortunately, Noel's performance at the plate tanked over his final 26 games of 2024, as his slash line dropped to .134/.216/.239 while only hitting two doubles, one home run, and collecting his only triple of the season.

While most will remember Noel's postseason performance for the home run he hit against the New York Yankees in the ALCS, the fact of the matter is that his struggles from the end of the regular season carried over into the playoffs. Noel had just two hits in his first 24 postseason plate appearances, including going hitless against the Detroit Tigers in the ALDS (0-13).

No one wants to hear this, but the manner in which Noel's season ended appears to be a better representation of who he is as a hitter. It seems that Noel is much more likely to follow in the footsteps of other Cleveland sluggers with this hitting profile (Bobby Bradley, Oscar Gonzalez) rather than becoming the well-rounded and consistently good hitter that the Guardians need in their lineup.

Perhaps Noel can course correct and find a way to change the trajectory his career appears to be headed on, but there is very little, if anything, that suggests this is possible. It would be different if Noel could play a position that the Guardians did not have multiple other options available to them, but being a corner outfield/first base/designated hitter puts him in a spot where he will get pushed for playing time when other options become available if his hitting performance is not good enough.

Do not be surprised if Noel's playing time becomes extremely limited early on and then pretty much eliminated once Chase DeLauter makes his debut and David Fry returns to DH if his struggles at the plate to end last season carry over into 2025.