Cade Smith could end up defining whether 2026 is a success or failure for Guardians

For the past half-decade, Clevelanders have really needed to hold their breath in the ninth inning of close games. But through the first 19 games into the 2026 season, the "Big Maple," Cade Smith, has given Northeast Ohio denizens plenty of reasons to reach for the Tuns.

The Guardians currently sit at the top of the AL Central, but if we’re being honest, a few of those wins felt a lot closer than they should have. The question everyone is whispering at the ballpark is starting to get louder: When does Smith's early-season rust turn into a legitimate problem?

Cade Smith needs to turn things around for the Guardians ASAP

A shaky start

Before we get too deep into this, it's important to remember that all these stats are coming at a point where Smith has made just 13 appearances. That is the definition of a small sample size. However, the numbers aren't exactly doing Smith any favors:

ERA: 4.14
WHIP: 1.46 (A massive jump from his elite 1.03 last year)
Save Percentage: 6-for-8 (75%)
Hits Allowed: 15 in roughly 13 innings of work.

And it's not just the fact he's allowing runs; it’s the way they’re happening.

Smith is walking batters at a noticeably higher rate than we saw in his dominant 2024 debut and stellar showing in 2025. He’s allowing harder contact, and most importantly, he’s putting too many men on base.

When you’re a closer, living with a 1.46 WHIP is like playing with fire in a warehouse full of toilet paper. Eventually, you’re going to get burned.

What's missing?

The "stuff" still looks like it's there since his fastball is still touching 99 miles per hour, but his command is erratic.

Last season, Smith lived at the top of the zone and dared hitters to catch up. This year, those high heaters are either missing too far up for balls or leaking back over the heart of the plate.

When you lose that pinpoint control, hitters stop chasing the slider. That leads to longer counts, more walks, and higher stress.

Manager Stephen Vogt and the coaching staff have publicly stated they have "utmost faith" in Smith, but we know how the Guardians' pitching factory works. If the results don't stabilize, they won't wait until August to make a move.

If not Smith, then who?

If the Guardians decide that Cade needs a "mental reset" in a lower-leverage seventh or eighth inning role, who would stand in line to get the ball for the final three outs?

The name on everyone’s lips right now is Erik Sabrowski. The lefty has been an absolute revelation this year, sporting a sub-2.00 ERA and showing a "closer's mentality" in high-leverage spots.

His ability to miss bats and keep the ball in the yard makes him the most logical internal candidate to take over the reigns if the ninth inning continues to be a struggle for Smith.

Is it too early to panic? Yes. One dominant week from Smith where he strikes out the side three times would fix his ERA and his confidence in a heartbeat.

But is it too early to worry? No. The margin for error in the AL Central is razor-thin, and we can’t afford to give away games in April and May. Smith has the talent to be a premier closer in this league, but he needs to find his location and find it fast.

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