3 concerns for the Cleveland Guardians heading into the ALDS

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Earl Weaver once said, “Momentum? Momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher.”

Well, Cleveland’s starting pitching has been very good this year, even dominant at times. And so has their track record lately. The Guardians finished the regular season on a tear, going 24-6 (.800) over their past 30 games before sweeping the Rays in the AL wild-card round. The last time they lost back-to-back games was over a month ago – September 3 and 4 vs. Seattle.

The Guardians were able to rest some guys and get others healthy because they wrapped up the AL Central during that dominant stretch in September. And they were able to set their pitching rotation how they wanted it for the wild-card round and moving forward throughout the playoffs. With a magical finish to a marathon clincher, everything seems to be going Cleveland’s way.

However, here are a few concerns heading into their ALDS matchup with the New York Yankees.

The Guardians received bad news on reliever Nick Sandlin on Monday, announcing that an MRI revealed a strain of his teres major muscle. Long-term, the prognosis for this injury is relatively good; however, in the short-term it means that Cleveland will be without one of their top setup men.

While Cleveland’s bullpen has been dominant and looked to be a significant strength and potential advantage heading into the playoffs, there has to be some level of concern. Losing Sandlin could affect the team’s ability to shorten games and bridge the gap to closer Emmanuel Clase. This concern becomes magnified with the change in rules in the postseason, which eliminates the “ghost runner” at second base in extra innings. In longer games, the more dominant relievers you can throw out there the better, and Cleveland just lost a good one.

Beyond Sandlin, there has to be at least some question surrounding potential Game 4 starter Aaron Civale. Civale worked his way back from multiple injuries this season, going 5-6 with a 4.92 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 98 IP. The Guardians won seven of his past eight starts, including the game that clinched the American League Central and the final game of the regular season. However, Civale was left off the wild-card roster to save him for a start in the ALDS. This will lead to an 11-day layoff between his last regular-season start and his projected Game 4 start against the Yankees. How he adjusts to the disruption in his routine, his sharpness, and stamina all will be closely watched following the layoff.

The Guardians have the youngest roster in the major leagues. The deeper they go into the playoffs, the more attention this will garner. While veteran leadership and a great coaching staff and manager can offset the differences in experience, many of the Guardians players have already played more games than they have in any previous season. Many of the Guardians’ young players also lost important development time during the cancelled 2020 minor-league season. How they adjust to the extended schedule and potentially playing into November could factor heavily in the Guardians’ success moving forward.

The Guardians have struggled against left-handed pitching this year, ranking near the bottom of the league in most major metrics. They managed to beat Rays lefty Shane McClanahan in the wild-card opener, but only managed two runs – both on a José Ramírez home run. While the Guardians scratched out seven hits off McClanahan, they struggled to string them together, which has been their offensive style all year.

Against the Yankees they will have to face Nestor Cortes in Game 2, and potentially again in a winner-take-all Game 5. Nicknamed “Nasty Nestor,” Cortes went 12-4 with a 2.44 ERA and 163 Ks in 158 1/2 innings this year. The case has been made that Cortes has earned the Game 1 start, though Yankees manager Aaron Boone has since announced that righty Gerrit Cole will get that distinction.

Potentially a left-handed ace twice in one series will test the Guardians’ ability to adapt in the postseason. It would be crazy to think that they could fix their season-long struggles at this point, but they need to find a way, like they did against McClanahan, if they want to have a chance in this series.

The Guardians’ lack of power will be a topic of discussion and comparison no matter who they play for the rest of the playoffs. While they scored all three of their runs in the wild-card round by way of home run, this presents two concerns. First, that stat is more of a reflection on how little offense they produced against the Rays, scoring just three runs in 24 innings. And second, that is not how they have won games all season, having won more games without hitting a home run than any other team in MLB.

Now, Cleveland faces a Yankees lineup that scored 141 more runs than the Rays. It doesn’t seem likely that the Yankees will be held to just one run in any game, let alone across 24 innings. For the Guardians to win this series, they will need to get back to stringing hits together and scratching runs across. Without doing that, no amount of momentum will carry them into the ALCS.

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