Eli Morgan deserves another look in Cleveland Guardians rotation

Eli Morgan has made vast improvements from his rookie season – does he deserve another shot in the Guardians’ rotation?

Eli Morgan has been relegated to the Cleveland Guardians bullpen this season, which wasn’t a surprise going into the year. The Guardians’ rotation was back to full health and Morgan had a rocky rookie season with a 5.34 ERA in 18 starts.

But with his truly impressive run out of the bullpen to start 2022, Morgan deserves another look in the rotation. Aaron Civale, who has gotten off to a rough start himself, was recently placed on the 15-day IL with a sore left glute, leaving open an opportunity. Rookie Konnor Pilkington got the first crack at it Thursday night against the Tigers, giving up three runs and seven hits while walking four and striking out four in just 3 1/3 innings of work.

But really, it’s Morgan who should be getting a look. He gave the Guardians another three shutout innings of relief Thursday – striking out three while giving up neither a walk or a hit – and now owns a sparkling 2.70 ERA in ten appearances (one start), with 24 strikeouts in 20 innings and just three walks.

The Guardians seem to love him as the long man, and he’s thriving there, but he’s made too much of an improvement not to at least see how that might translate to the rotation.

What’s Behind Eli Morgan’s Improvement?

Most impressively, Morgan has added some zip on his four-seam fastball this season, which he can routinely throw around 92-93 mph; he averaged 90.5 mph on the fastball last year. He’s been throwing the changeup – his best pitch – more as well, at 26%, mixing in three other secondary pitches sporadically. He’s been keeping things more simple in the pen to great effect.

Morgan’s Statcast profile is an impressive sea of red at the moment as well. His xBA is a paltry .193 and his xERA is actually 2.61, suggesting he’s been even better than his actual ERA is telling us. Both his strikeout rate and walk rate rank among the top 10% o the league, which might be the most impressive stat of all. And all of that is wrapped in the bow of a 142 ERA+, making Morgan one of the best relievers in baseball so far this season.

When Civale returns from the IL, he’ll no doubt slide right back into the rotation, but both he and Zach Plesac, who has also struggled at times this year, have to know their roles could potentially change down the road. On the season, Civale has a 7.84 ERA in seven starts and is getting hit hard for an average exit velocity of 114 mph and the highest barrel rate of his career. Plesac, on the other hand, has shown a few decent glimpses at times, but still maintains a 5.40 ERA and an xBA of .318; he’s not fooling anybody right now.

The struggles of the rotation have certainly come as a shock to the Guardians, who were expecting it to once again be the biggest strength of the club. Even with a vastly improved offense, the inconsistency of the starters has been a major factor in Cleveland’s sub-.500 start, and with numerous young pitchers beginning to knock on the door to the majors, it’ll soon be time for the team to make some tough decisions.

Guys like Civale and Plesac will continue to get time to work out their struggles, but Morgan has earned the right to get another look in the rotation as well. And if Civale and Plesac can’t figure things out quick, that opportunity could come sooner than later.