Cleveland Guardians: Should there be any worry about Aaron Civale?

Guardians pitcher Aaron Civale has had a tough start to the season, but is it time to actually start worrying about him?

Aaron Civale has had a rough start to the 2022 season, evidenced most recently by Sunday’s loss, in which he gave up six runs to the Yankees in just three innings of work.

For the season, Civale now has a 9.58 ERA in his three starts. He’s striking out more hitters this year, but walking more as well, and giving up plenty of solid contact in the process. Perhaps more concerning, Civale is currently throwing his fastball around two miles per hour slower to start the season, at about 89 mph.

Of course, the caveat is that under a normal season unaffected by a lockout, a starting pitcher would just now be getting stretched out under a typical spring training schedule. That’s likely why some pitchers around the league have been holding back on letting it fully rip (which could also explain Shane Bieber’s dip in velocity as well – hopefully).

That being said, it’s certainly not helping Civale at this point. He hasn’t thrown the fastball as much yet this year, but hitters are batting .333 off of it so far. Even worse, hitters are torching Civale’s cutter for a .667 batting average, as that pitch is being thrown a touch slower as well (85 mph against Civale’s typical speed of around 87 mph).

Speed, of course, isn’t everything, especially for a pitcher like Civale, who has to rely far more on his six-pitch mix and command to be successful as opposed to simply blowing hitters away. Still, though, as far as the rest of Civale’s Statcast percentiles go, they highlight what has been a pretty grim April for the 26-year-old.

It all honestly might be nothing, as the next few starts should begin to paint a more complete picture of what’s going on. If Civale is still throwing with less velocity and getting knocked around like this, there might be something more at play. April can often be an unpredictable and unreliable predictor of a player’s season, and there’s always an urge to overreact.

But let’s also take a look back at Civale’s 2021 performance, just to be sure.

Going back to May 14, before injuring his finger, and running through his return to the end of the year, Civale had a 4.38 ERA in 14 starts, along with a 5.21 FIP. He had 66 strikeouts in those 78 innings, and he threw a few gems in there, but he was getting knocked around nearly as much.

After returning from his injury in September, Civale made six starts and had a 5.74 ERA. Perhaps whatever struggles he had at times in 2021 have carried over to this season, but the Guardians certainly need him to figure it all out sooner than later.

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