How to bet the Cleveland Guardians in 2022

Thinking about betting on the Cleveland Guardians this season? Let’s see if history is any indicator of which way you should go.

Betting on the Cleveland Guardians to win the World Series has never been a profitable endeavor.  At +6000 for 2022 (over at WynnBET at the time of this writing), it is truly a gamble. This line is most likely far worse than it needs to be; the then-Indians were decimated with injuries last year, and it felt like everything that could have gone wrong did.

But let’s look back at past betting lines and see how well Vegas does at projecting Cleveland baseball seasons.

World Series Odds

Best odds of the past 20 years: Preseason odds of +735 in 2018. Lost in the ALDS to the Houston Astros.

2016 Odds: Preseason odds of +1700. For context, the preseason favorite was the Chicago Cubs at +450 – a brutally ironic twist.

Division Title Odds

Best odds of the past 20 years: -415 in 2017 and 2018. Both years Cleveland won the American League Central.

Other: Cleveland had -410 odds in 2019. The Indians finished 8 games back of the Twins. In 2016 Cleveland had +185 odds; they did win the division.

Win Total

Highest number in the past 20 years: 94.5, 2018. Cleveland finished with 91 wins.

Times Cleveland finished under the projected win total from 2001-2021: 10

Times Cleveland finished over the projected win total from 2001-2021: 11

Closest Vegas has been to actual win total: In 2021, Vegas projected the Indians winning 81.5 games. Cleveland won 80.

Furthest Vegas has been from actual win total: In 2006 Vegas projected the Indians to win 90 games. Cleveland won 78.

What to Do This Year

WynnBET has Cleveland’s over/under at 76.5 games, which gives us some good insight into how many wins the Guardians will potentially have. Cleveland’s 2022 World Series odds of +6000 are around the same as they were in 2012, and that year, Vegas projected the team to win 78.5 games.

Let’s review Cleveland’s performance against the win total when the win total has been between 75-85 wins. All forthcoming statistics are from 2001 and on.

Cleveland had projected win totals of 75-85 games in 2002, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2021. Cleveland finished under, over, over, under, under, over, over, under, and under, respectively. For those of you keeping count, that is nine years, five unders and four overs.

When Cleveland has a projected win total under 75 wins, they have two unders and two overs.

Conclusion

Preseason World Series odds (which show us how little Vegas values the Guardians) combined with historical comps tell us that the the line for Cleveland’s win total will be between 77-80 games. When the team has a projected win total between 75-85 games it has never hit the under in three straight opportunities. After hitting the under in 2015 and 2021, the Guardians feel due to hit the over.

Couple this with the disaster that last year was, and the Guardians become an extremely compelling bet to go over .500 in 2022.