Cleveland Indians: The 2022 starting rotation is already set and it’s promising

Shane Bieber, SP, Cleveland Indians

Entering the 2021 season we knew it was going to be difficult for Shane Bieber to match his 2020 performance, however, it wasn’t expected to go this way. Coming off a historic season, the reigning American League Cy Young seemed poised to lead a young rotation in Cleveland, but injury struck and has derailed his year.

Luckily, we pretty much know what to expect from Bieber. Despite the injury he was still an All-Star this year and has put up strong and consistent numbers throughout his young career. At just 26-years old, he is surely going to be a key piece in Cleveland’s rotation moving forward.

The question with Bieber right now is how to close out the rest of the season. Given Cleveland’s position in the standings, there really isn’t a reason to try and rush him back into the rotation. Being nine games back in the Wild Card, the postseason is nearly out of reach, so Bieber can take his time getting back or the team could just shut him down and get ready for 2022.

Bieber threw a second bullpen earlier this week, tossing 25 fastballs from the bump and the rest of his pitches from flat ground. With a little over a month in the season, we’ll be lucky to get Bieber for more than a start or two, if that. Luckily, when the team needs him, being next year, he should be back healthy and ready to lead a quietly strong rotation in Cleveland once again.

Aaron Civale, SP, Cleveland Indians

Right next to Bieber on the injured list is Aaron Civale. Like Bieber, Civale was looking strong early in the season and was even talked about as being on the same level as the defending Cy Young winner. He was the first pitcher in the game to hit double-digit wins in 2021, but unfortunately an injury hasn’t allowed him to get even win 11 yet.

Civale is a bit ahead of Bieber in the recovery process, having thrown a simulated game, so the odds of getting Civale back this season is a bit higher. At the time of his injury he was putting up some of the better numbers of his career, so it will be interesting to see if he can get back to that form before the 2021 season closes out.

Even if he can’t get all the way there, Civale is poised to be one of the better starters in Cleveland next year. He showed promise this season after a bit of a more difficult 2020 season. Having the offseason to get fully healthy and then Spring Training to relocate what was working earlier this season should set up Civale to be one of the better pitchers not only in Cleveland in 2022, but possibly in the entire American League.

Zach Plesac, SP, Cleveland Indians

It seems like every time Zach Plesac appears to be turning the corner on the mound to get to the next level of his potential something non-baseball related happens. Whether it be partying during COVID or aggressively removing his shirt, Plesac’s issues away from the mound have been what has kept him from tapping into his full potential.

Like Bieber and Civale, Plesac had an injury this year, thanks to a rogue chair that got in the way of his thumb in the locker room. However, Plesac has been the only one of the “Big Three” to return already this season. Unfortunately, the results haven’t been what was hoped for.

After missing all of June, Plesac has made seven starts between July and August. He has managed to allow at least two runs in every single one of those seven starts. Over that time he’s posted an ERA of 5.40. Over 38.1 innings he’s managed to strikeout just 29 batters while walking seven and giving up 10 doubles and nine home runs.

That’s not promising, but the good news is that might be the most concerning thing for the starting rotation going into next year. Plesac’s shown his potential, posting a 2.28 ERA in 2020, but consistency just hasn’t been there.

An offseason to get fully healthy and a Spring Training to find his groove again should hopefully get Plesac back on track. Plus, not being the far-and-away best pitcher of the rotation should relieve some pressure as well.

Cal Quantrill, SP, Cleveland Indians

The rise of Cal Quantrill this season has been well documented and now a solid start for him isn’t even newsworthy, but expected. Arriving as part of the Mike Clevinger trade a year ago, Quantrill has made nearly a seamless transition from the bullpen to the starting rotation this season and has positioned himself to be locked in for a back-end rotation spot in 2022.

Another member of the 2016 MLB Draft class, Quantrill was actually the highest drafted of Cleveland’s rotation, albeit by the San Diego Padres. In 2016, San Diego used the eighth overall selection on Quantrill. He struggled a bit early in his career, but seems to have found his stride in Cleveland.

It took some time for him to settle in, but once July hit he found it. Since the beginning of July, each of Quantrill’s starts have gone at least five innings. He also had a streak of five starts where he didn’t allow more than one run in any appearance.

Since his first start in July, Quantrill is maintaining an ERA of 2.41 over nine starts that have totaled 52.1 innings. Over that time, he’s struck out 41 batters, equaling the amount of hits he’s allowed as well. There’s still a bit of a weakness in walks with 17, but that can be improved.

Quantrill’s best start undoubtedly came on Aug. 6 against Detroit when he tossed seven scoreless innings while striking out 10. While that might be his ceiling, and one Cleveland will happily take, his average start should work just fine for Cleveland moving forward into the 2022 season.

Triston McKenzie, SP, Cleveland Indians

The fifth spot of the rotation is where Cleveland could see a bit of competition, but at this point it seems like the edge should go to Triston McKenzie. The good news is that this competition would be between two capable starters, not between two struggling prospects just trying to fill a spot like we’ve seen this season.

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The edge for McKenzie really comes down to his potential, which was on full display in his last start. A first round pick by Cleveland in the 2015 MLB Draft, McKenzie was once one of the top prospects in the organization and is still just barely 24-years old after celebrating a birthday earlier this month.

Something about getting older must have helped McKenzie because since his birthday, each start has been progressively better. On Aug. 5 he gave up just three runs over seven innings against a tough Toronto offense. Then on Aug. 10 he improved to two runs over six innings against another difficult team in Oakland. However, his last start was by far the best of his career.

Going a full eight innings, McKenzie carried a perfect game into the eighth inning before being broken up by a Harold Castro single. When he left the inning, McKenzie had posted 10 strikeouts over eight innings while giving up just that one hit and no walks.

That start against Detroit is the potential that McKenzie has and it wasn’t necessarily a fluke. He’s had similar outings earlier this season they just weren’t perfect game bids. If he can find consistency in his starts, which should come with time, he should easily slot in as part of this rotation.