Cleveland Indians: Projecting Francisco Lindor's arbitration price tag

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CLEVELAND, OHIO – SEPTEMBER 30: Shortstop Francisco Lindor #12 of the Cleveland Indians throws out DJ LeMahieu #26 of the New York Yankees at first during the sixth inning of Game Two of the American League Wild Card Series at Progressive Field on September 30, 2020 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Yankees defeated the Indians 10-9. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) /

Francisco Lindor will demand a high price tag after arbitration, but how high will the price be for the Cleveland Indians?

There is just one more year of arbitration left on docket for Francisco Lindor before he can fully negotiate a deal that encompasses his full worth. However, one more year is also the assumed timetable for how much longer he will don the Cleveland Indians uniform, and it comes from the same reason.

While Lindor has been one of the best players at the shortstop position, if not in the game as a whole, he is rapidly approaching the point of pricing himself out of Cleveland. Thanks to the odd rules of baseball contracts, the Indians have one year remaining of bargain play from Mr. Smile.

The arbitration process of baseball can be odd and unpredictable at times, but there is a set precedent that is followed in each contract dispute. Like any court case, both sides present evidence for why they are right and in the end a number is said that turns into the player’s salary for the year.

This is something that is unique to baseball and can create confusion on contracts, but with no salary cap it remains to be one of the few things that keeps the playing field as even as possible despite all the various markets and budgets of the teams in the league.

There is a chance that Cleveland and Lindor reach an agreement before the court is called in, whether that be a one-year deal or the ever-so-rare long-term lucrative deal that Indians ownership refuses to speak of. No matter how it comes to be, we can still create some sort of grasp for the price tag that will accompany Lindor in the 2021 season.

By looking at previous arbitration cases of similar caliber players, finding the range for which Lindor will be paid can at least be estimated. There are other details that will impact the decision, but overall the contract should be rather predictable.

One thing that will be difficult is finding players that are comparable and are still in the arbitration process. Most times, the elite players like Lindor strike a long-term deal long before their final arbitration period, so his case is a bit rare.

Francisco Lindor

To begin making comparisons, we have to establish the base for which to compare and that obviously begins with Francisco Lindor.

During the shortened season, Lindor played in all 60 games for the Cleveland Indians, logging an American League-high 266 at-bats, the third time in his career he has led the league. However, the mass amount of at-bats didn’t translate as well as they have in the past.

During the 2020 season, Lindor slashed career-lows across the board at .258/.335/.415 and only had eight home runs and no triples. Totaling just 98 bases on the season, Lindor averaged 0.37 bases per at-bat, a steep drop off from the mark that he has become known for, averaging above 0.45 bases per at-at for each of the last three seasons.

Despite the lower numbers, Lindor was still one of the more impressive bats in the Cleveland lineup, which isn’t saying much, but his value has always been driven defensively, even before he made it to the majors.

In the field, Lindor maintained a .995 fielding percentage, having just one error on the abbreviated season. Every year since arriving to the big leagues his fielding percentage has improved, but doing that again next year will be a tall task.

On the contract side of things, Lindor was scheduled to make $17.5 million during the 2020 season at the age of 26 before everything was derailed. Assuming next year will hopefully be a full season, those are the numbers that we’ll focus on.

Mookie Betts

While Mookie Betts has since inked a lucrative 12-year deal worth $365 million, just a year ago he was in a near identical situation as Lindor. Going back a year in time, Betts was the same age as Lindor currently is and was just one year removed from an MVP season in Boston.

The 2019 season for Betts was an impressive one, being named an All-Star and leading baseball in runs scored with 135. At the plate he slashed an impressive .295/.391/.524 and logged 29 home runs on the season.

The massive season for Betts at the plate also carried into the field for the star player. Seeing time in all parts of the outfield for the Red Sox during the 2019 season, Betts was able to hold a .994 fielding percentage.

While Lindor is a great player, his numbers from 2020 aren’t near what Betts did in 2019 before his final arbitration deal. However, Betts’ 2017 numbers are rather similar. During that season, Betts’ slash line was more comparable at .264/.344/.459.

To give insight into the contract side of things, Betts struck a $27 million deal following his incredible 2019 season. This was quite the jump from his 2018 deal a few years earlier that came in at just $10.5 million.

Given Lindor’s history and ability, this arbitration deal could end up right between Betts’ 2020 and 2018 deals, which is exactly where his 2019 season landed. Following his MVP season, Betts earned $20 million through arbitration. Lindor hasn’t had an MVP season yet, but his value might not be too far off.

It’s also important to note that this deal was settled before going through the full arbitration process and the court.

George Springer

Not many cases went through the full arbitration process prior to the 2020 season, but one that did was George Springer, ending up with the highest amount of midpoint money.

The 2019 season might be tainted a bit for Springer, but regardless those stats went into the decision that ended in him receiving a $21 million deal in arbitration. Given how far apart Francisco Lindor and the Cleveland Indians might be on a price this coming year, this case might be the most important to see how the court rules.

The 2019 season saw Springer be named an All-Star as well as a Silver Slugger, the second of his career. Overall, he slashed a solid line of .292/.383/.591 during the season, but didn’t lead the league in any categories. What set him apart, though, was his 39 home runs, a mark that Lindor nearly hit in 2018 with 38.

For Springer, the jump up to $21 million was a big one after agreeing to just $3.9 million a few years earlier in 2017. Granted, he accomplished a lot between those two contracts, but that type of leap is something that isn’t common and was a big reason why this went to the court process.

What this means for the Cleveland Indians and Francisco Lindor is that the team should set aside a large chunk of change if they plan to take this case the distance. Lindor already made $17.5 million last year, so a bigger amount is expected and could very well be in the range of this deal from Springer.

Kris Bryant

During the last arbitration process there were only three deals that resulted in more money than Lindor’s. Those belonged to Betts, Springer and Kris Bryant. Settling on a deal of $18.6 million, Bryant is the closest we can come to an infielder that is comparable, despite him seeing time in the outfield as well.

Bryant, like Lindor, has one more year left of arbitration on his contract. However, he was still able to scrap together an extra million compared to Lindor’s last deal.

The 2019 season for Bryant heading into arbitration was one that seemed like a typical season for him. He didn’t lead the league in any categories, but did what he does best by contributing across the stat sheet. Bryant was able to slash .282/.382/.521 with 31 home runs in 2019.

Surprisingly, Lindor had a better average, a higher slugging percentage and more home runs in 2019 and still ended up with less money. That is something that Lindor most likely won’t forget this time around.

To ensure that he gets what he is worth, this difference might force Lindor to hold out through as much of the arbitration process as possible, meaning a Springer-like deal becomes more possible.

CLEVELAND, OH – SEPTEMBER 23: Francisco Lindor #12 of the Cleveland Indians bats against the Chicago White Sox during the fifth inning at Progressive Field on September 23, 2020 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Ron Schwane/Getty Images) /

Final Verdict

There’s no question that the Cleveland Indians are going to try and drag out this process to get the best deal they can. Lindor is technically locked in for next year, but that doesn’t mean the front office won’t try and short change him or even trade him so they don’t have to pay his inevitably high price tag.

Given that last year Lindor signed the fourth-highest arbitration deal of the offseason, it can be assumed that this next deal will be top three, if not the highest. Betts already got his long-term deal, leaving few ahead of Lindor on the list.

It can almost be guaranteed that Lindor’s price tag will increase from his $17.5 million mark in 2020. He didn’t perform at the level we’re used to, but was still one of the better players on the team and proved to be the energy of the clubhouse.

Seeing the other contracts that have been signed over the last year, it can be safe to assume that Lindor will join Springer and Betts from last year on the list of arbitration deals north of $20 million.

Given his stellar defense and the fact that he plays shortstop, a $20-25 million contract seems very realistic for Lindor during the arbitration process. Should this go all the way to the courts, $25 million is the number his brass should be aiming to get.

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Cleveland Indians: Projecting Francisco Lindor’s arbitration price tag