Cleveland Indians: An early breakdown of the AL Central

Minnesota Twins

As was alluded to above, the Twins missed out on this year’s best starting pitchers. Whether they hoped to land the likes of Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, or someone else in that range, the Twins ended up settling for Homer Bailey and Rich Hill. As such, the Indians maintain an advantage over the 2019 AL Central champions in the starting rotation.

But as we learned about the Twins last season, a pitching staff that leaves something to be desired isn’t always a death sentence if your offense can simply outscore everyone else. Minnesota led all of baseball in home runs with 307, and were edged out only by the New York Yankees in runs scored (939).

This beer-league softball formula proved to be Minnesota’s undoing in the playoffs, but an explosive offense coupled with a serviceable pitching staff should once again be enough to keep the Twins in the hunt for a division title, letting the cards fall where they may in October. The acquisition of Donaldson certainly isn’t going to hurt those chances.

The biggest question regarding the Twins’ offense is how many of their hitters can repeat or build upon impressive 2019 campaigns. Nelson Cruz was his same old reliable self last year, but he’s going to be 40 in July. Is it unreasonable to think age is due to catch up to him?

Max Kepler had never hit more than 20 home runs in a season before hitting 36 in 2019, and that wasn’t for a lack of opportunity. Did he figure something out to sustain this newfound success, or was he just unusually lucky on fly balls going over the fence?

The same question applies to Mitch Garver, who launched 31 home runs in 359 plate appearances. Is he suddenly just that good after hitting seven home runs in 335 plate appearances the year prior, or is his breakout season due at least in part to good batted-ball fortune in the form of a 29% HR/FB rate?

The point is that the Twins, perhaps more than any of last year’s playoff teams, could be due for a collective negative regression. Minnesota didn’t promote a bunch of young prospects who happened to flourish alongside a core of established players; it got career years out of a handful of veterans, some of whom had never displayed anywhere near the level of explosiveness we saw in 2019. It’s difficult to imagine this team–even with Donaldson–slugging its way to another 101-win season. At some point, run prevention becomes important too.

By the same token, the Indians are in trouble if their strategy is to rely as heavily on starting pitching as they did last year. If we’re going to argue that the Twins can’t average nearly six runs per game again, then it must also be acknowledged that asking Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber to flirt with complete-game shutouts on a regular basis is equally ill-fated.

Where Minnesota destroyed the Indians in 2019 was offensive consistency; the Twins’ lineup seemingly never took a night off, while the Indians alternated back and forth between productive outings and total disappearing acts–with no discernible way to predict which was coming on a given day. The same cannot be true in 2020 if the Indians expect to recapture the division crown.

Cleveland’s rotation is equipped to out-duel Minnesota’s, and is up to the task of navigating through the Twins’ ferocious lineup most days. In order for that to result in the Indians actually being the better team, Cleveland’s lineup must reassert itself as one of the most dominant in the American League.