Cleveland Indians: An early breakdown of the AL Central

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Does the Josh Donaldson signing keep the Twins atop the AL Central? Are the White Sox poised for a run? Or can the Indians reclaim the division title?

Josh Donaldson was the last of the superstar free agents left on the market, and he ended his courtship with interested teams on Tuesday night by committing to the Minnesota Twins. The Donaldson signing is the latest (and biggest) move in a busy AL Central offseason.

It’s at least somewhat surprising to see Donaldson settle on the Twins. The Washington Nationals clearly needed him the most, and his familiarity with an Atlanta Braves team set up to contend for the next decade would’ve seemed to make them his ideal fit. Perhaps the ability to DH at the tail-end of his four-year contract with Minnesota played a role, but in any case, he’s going to be playing his home games at Target Field from now on.

From the standpoint of the Cleveland Indians, Donaldson’s agreement with the Twins certainly renders a take-back of the AL Central crown more of an uphill challenge. Minnesota’s inability to acquire any of the front-line starting pitching options available this winter was a win for the rest of the division; reallocating what it might have spent on said pitching options in this manner is a fine contingency.

With the fourth-biggest name of this year’s free agent class having landed in the American League Central, now seems like a fine time to take stock of how the division is shaping up for the 2020 season. How does each stack up against the Indians? What advantages does Cleveland have over its adversaries, and where is the Tribe vulnerable?

Detroit Tigers

Last year’s last-place club is destined for another lost season, with the silver lining being that a handful of their more highly regarded prospects may get the call-up to the big leagues at some point in 2020. Hope may loom on the horizon for the Detroit Tigers, but they are still looking at a bottom-rung finish in the AL standings this year.

Detroit landed some veteran free agents in infielders Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron, and right-handed starter Ivan Nova, which should allow them to be marginally more functional at the MLB level. The nature of the one-year deals to which all three players agreed suggests the Tigers are hoping there’s some midsummer trade value, as none of them have the firepower to spearhead a franchise turnaround.

The X-factor in Detroit’s season will inevitably be lefty Matthew Boyd, whose trade value may have reached its pinnacle in the first half of 2019. Prior to the All-Star break, Boyd posted desirable numbers in strikeout rate (32%), ERA (3.87), FIP (3.57), and xFIP (3.35). All of those metrics deteriorated significantly in the second half, and Detroit may have missed its chance to send him away for a long-term haul.

If Boyd is able to recapture the pleasantly surprising mound presence he displayed in the first few months of 2019, don’t expect the Tigers to stand pat in trade negotiations this time around.

As far as the Indians are concerned, there is no aspect of the Tigers’ 2020 roster that matches up well. Cleveland has the superior offense, defensive alignment, and pitching staff. Will the Tribe finish 18-1 against Detroit again in 2020? Probably not. But if the Indians show up to play in head-to-head competition against the once-proud Tigers, this is not a season series that should be up for grabs.

Kansas City Royals

If the 2019 Chicago White Sox were the thorn in Cleveland’s side–which is to say, the team the Indians should’ve been able to handle but didn’t, for whatever reason–the Kansas City Royals could be that headache in 2020.

The Royals are likely staring down another rough season in terms of starting pitching, as their rotation will presumably be headlined again by Brad Keller, Danny Duffy, and Jakob Junis. On offense, however, Kansas City possesses just enough peskiness and thump to give the Indians a hard time.

Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox are America’s offseason darling, having set themselves up as a popular dark horse playoff hopeful after spending a ton of money in free agency. Among their most notable acquisitions are catcher Yasmani Grandal, slugger Edwin Encarnacion, and starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel. The White Sox also signed their top prospect, Luis Robert, to a lucrative contract, indicating there will be no service-time tomfoolery and he will be up with the major league squad sooner than later.

Chicago’s aggressive approach to this winter has many wondering whether the Indians are in danger of falling into third place within the Central. It’s a fair question, especially considering the Indians’ most notable offseason move was trading Corey Kluber away for a less-than-optimal return.

If there is any immediately clear advantage the White Sox have over the Indians, it’s in the outfield. Robert and Eloy Jimenez are two youngsters with untold ceilings of potential, and the Indians have nothing to rival that on their own roster. Chicago also possesses the more well-rounded everyday catcher in Grandal; Roberto Perez‘s defensive prowess aside, his breakout offensive campaign in 2019 could very well have been a flash in the pan.

Where the Indians have an undeniable leg up on Chicago is on the mound. The White Sox rotation is comprised largely of depth options and unknown quantities outside of Lucas Giolito. Dylan Cease has a prime opportunity for a year-two leap, and Michael Kopech is slated to make his return from a 2018 Tommy John procedure that cost him all of last year. The two of them could join Giolito as top-of-the-rotation arms in the second half of this season if everything breaks right, but that’s far from a guarantee.

Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez, and Reynaldo Lopez will provide Chicago with depth and dependability, but all three possess markedly lower upside than at least three of the Indians’ starters. Even on the dependability front, Lopez in particular is a wide-range-of-outcomes-on-any-given-day type of pitcher.

Chicago’s batting order will be deeper than the Tribe’s on most days from one through nine, but it shouldn’t be forgotten that the Indians still have the two best position players in Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, with Carlos Santana owning a fair argument for third-best.

While the White Sox should be celebrated for going all-in this offseason, and their outlook for 2020 is as bright as it’s been in years, the contention that they’ve already surpassed the Indians in the AL Central is premature. Cleveland has its holes, and it’s discouraging that they haven’t been addressed. But this is still the club that won 93 games in 2019, and their stagnant offseason alone doesn’t automatically knock them out of the division race just because a 72-win team went out and spent some money.

Either way, this will be an exciting season series worth getting amped up to watch. The White Sox were the only AL Central team to post a winning record against the Tribe in 2019, and should be every bit as difficult to deal with this year.

Minnesota Twins

As was alluded to above, the Twins missed out on this year’s best starting pitchers. Whether they hoped to land the likes of Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, or someone else in that range, the Twins ended up settling for Homer Bailey and Rich Hill. As such, the Indians maintain an advantage over the 2019 AL Central champions in the starting rotation.

But as we learned about the Twins last season, a pitching staff that leaves something to be desired isn’t always a death sentence if your offense can simply outscore everyone else. Minnesota led all of baseball in home runs with 307, and were edged out only by the New York Yankees in runs scored (939).

This beer-league softball formula proved to be Minnesota’s undoing in the playoffs, but an explosive offense coupled with a serviceable pitching staff should once again be enough to keep the Twins in the hunt for a division title, letting the cards fall where they may in October. The acquisition of Donaldson certainly isn’t going to hurt those chances.

The biggest question regarding the Twins’ offense is how many of their hitters can repeat or build upon impressive 2019 campaigns. Nelson Cruz was his same old reliable self last year, but he’s going to be 40 in July. Is it unreasonable to think age is due to catch up to him?

Max Kepler had never hit more than 20 home runs in a season before hitting 36 in 2019, and that wasn’t for a lack of opportunity. Did he figure something out to sustain this newfound success, or was he just unusually lucky on fly balls going over the fence?

The same question applies to Mitch Garver, who launched 31 home runs in 359 plate appearances. Is he suddenly just that good after hitting seven home runs in 335 plate appearances the year prior, or is his breakout season due at least in part to good batted-ball fortune in the form of a 29% HR/FB rate?

The point is that the Twins, perhaps more than any of last year’s playoff teams, could be due for a collective negative regression. Minnesota didn’t promote a bunch of young prospects who happened to flourish alongside a core of established players; it got career years out of a handful of veterans, some of whom had never displayed anywhere near the level of explosiveness we saw in 2019. It’s difficult to imagine this team–even with Donaldson–slugging its way to another 101-win season. At some point, run prevention becomes important too.

By the same token, the Indians are in trouble if their strategy is to rely as heavily on starting pitching as they did last year. If we’re going to argue that the Twins can’t average nearly six runs per game again, then it must also be acknowledged that asking Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber to flirt with complete-game shutouts on a regular basis is equally ill-fated.

Where Minnesota destroyed the Indians in 2019 was offensive consistency; the Twins’ lineup seemingly never took a night off, while the Indians alternated back and forth between productive outings and total disappearing acts–with no discernible way to predict which was coming on a given day. The same cannot be true in 2020 if the Indians expect to recapture the division crown.

Cleveland’s rotation is equipped to out-duel Minnesota’s, and is up to the task of navigating through the Twins’ ferocious lineup most days. In order for that to result in the Indians actually being the better team, Cleveland’s lineup must reassert itself as one of the most dominant in the American League.

Cleveland Indians

Now that we’ve discussed the Indians’ strengths and weaknesses as they pertain to their place in the division, let’s look at the Tribe’s roster independent of their opponents.

If the Indians’ offense reverts back to doing what it’s proven it can in past years and the starting rotation remains healthy and effective, the most glaring question hanging over the team’s 2020 outlook is the bullpen. It’s fair to suggest the Indians’ bullpen could range anywhere from the most dominant in the division to one of the most suspect in the American League.

Which end of the spectrum the Indians ultimately fall on will largely be determined by the left arm of Brad Hand, whose inexplicable second-half downfall played a regrettable role in Cleveland’s missing the playoffs. The Indians naturally need the dependable version of their closer in order to turn things around in 2020, in which case relievers like Nick Wittgren, James Karinchak, and Emmanuel Clase can fall in line accordingly.

The fact that Hand’s late-season struggles may have been due to overuse is one of the many causes for concern over the Indians’ offseason activity, or lack thereof: if Hand was overworked and his performance suffered as a result, Cleveland sure hasn’t set itself up to avoid a similar scenario. More relievers have left the Indians than joined them this winter, and the Tribe ‘pen was hardly composed of sure things to begin with.

The Indians’ starting rotation provides them with arguably the best one-two-three punch in the American League. Clevinger, Bieber, and Carlos Carrasco would be an unwelcome sight for any playoff opponent if the Indians get there. With the trio healthy for a full season, which was not the case in 2019, “getting there” is more than plausible.

If Aaron Civale builds upon his 2019 campaign, the Indians might also find themselves with the best fourth starter in all of baseball. Civale, Zach Plesac, and Adam Plutko all answered the bell last season, and all should be given a fair shot at breaking camp in the rotation. Civale posted the most impressive underlying metrics of the three, and for now, appears to have the highest floor.

Offensively, there are enough unknowns to warrant questions on just how capable the Indians are of keeping up with the AL’s best teams on the scoreboard. The likes of Lindor, Ramirez, and Santana naturally provide the Tribe with a solid foundation–and perhaps the best in the division.

What Cleveland gets from its role players will have the arguably larger impact on the ultimate destination of the team. Will Franmil Reyes settle in as the team’s go-to thumper and club 40 home runs? Will Cesar Hernandez hit well enough to slot into the top-third of the order, or will he fall in near the bottom? Can Oscar Mercado take a significant step forward? Because the Indians should probably have someone with an on-base percentage above .318 in the two-hole.

And if the Indians make no further moves to shore up what has been a regrettable outfield situation for several years running, can any of the in-house options pick up the slack? Delino DeShields? Bradley Zimmer? Jake Bauers? Anyone?

It’s questions like these that have rendered the Indians something of an underdog in their own division despite winning it three out of the last four years. Part of the reason for such doubt is the “bad optics” that result from a total unwillingness to spend money on the part of ownership, especially when the Tribe’s rivals are handing out big contracts and taking on risk.

Right or wrong, such is the perception of the Indians at the moment: this team believes it is far enough away from winning a World Series that it has spent more time trying to trade its best players than it has spent money trying to build around them. Of course the rest of the baseball community is going to be skeptical of the Indians’ chances to compete in 2020 if the Indians appear to be skeptical of themselves.

At least for now, however, perception doesn’t have to equal reality for the Indians. The reality of the Indians’ roster is that it has won at least 91 games for four straight seasons; that the left side of its infield is occupied by two borderline MVP candidates; that its starting rotation is the deepest in the division, and perhaps the American League.

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Maybe that reality gets turned on its head once the season starts, and all the doomsayers get to take their victory laps as the Indians decay into the third-best team in the AL Central. But Maybe, just maybe, the Indians are still good enough to take a run at this thing. The Twins and White Sox should be applauded for their offseason activity, sure, but never forget: no baseball team ever received a trophy for winning the winter.

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