Indians: Impending Rule 5 Draft decisions to be made

The Cleveland Indians have already made some roster moves this offseason but they have bigger decisions to make soon as they prepare for the Rule 5 Draft.

The Cleveland Indians entered this offseason with some rather big decisions right out of the gate. They had to trim their 40-man roster back down to a maximum of 40 players as their 60-day injury list guys had to be activated. A couple of big casualties from that were oft-injured pitchers Danny Salazar and Cody Anderson.

These moves the Tribe made got their 40-man down to 38 players heading into the offseason, which only leaves (for the moment) two open spots to add players before the December Rule 5 Draft.

The Indians, therefore, can add only two players as of now, though they can still release (or trade) players to open a 40-man spot before the November 20tdeadline. I’d imagine we do see some more cuts/moves before the deadline, as it looks (to me at least) like there are more than two guys the Tribe should add.

Here’s a look at some of the players who are eligible for the draft and how likely they are to be rostered.

And this year adds a new wrinkle to the Rule 5 Draft because in 2020 major league teams will see their big league rosters expand from 25 players to 26 players, allowing them to carry an extra bench player or bullpen arm.

The Near Locks

Daniel Johnson – OF
Triston McKenzie – RHP

I don’t like saying anyone is a 100% lock for anything, but I’d argue that Daniel Johnson and Triston McKenzie are about as close as you get. Johnson came to the Cleveland Indians in the Yan Gomes trade last year and had himself a real bounce-back season in 2019. He got selected for the Futures Game in Cleveland this past summer and had himself a heck of a year. He started the season in Double-A but was in Triple-A before long and helped the Columbus Clippers to the International League title.

Johnson is exactly the type of player the Indians could use in their outfield at the moment too: A left-handed hitting cOF (capable of playing CF) that has speed and pop. Between Akron and Columbus, he hit a robust .290/.361/.507 with 19 home runs, 34 doubles, and seven triples. He may actually compete for a big league outfield job in Spring Training and almost certainly will see the parent club at some point in 2020.

Triston McKenzie is the former first-round pick of the Indians who has been either at the top or near the top of Tribe prospect lists for a few years now. He’s had some setbacks with injuries the last couple years but still has the upside to dream on. Maybe he’s no longer a future “Ace” but it seems like worst case he should be able to help out a big league club in the bullpen. And given how the Tribe’s bullpen looks they’d be nuts to let another team steal him away.

That’s not to say McKenzie will be with the Indians organization come Opening Day. I could see him as a guy that’s traded this winter to improve the big league club too, but the value in a trade or the Indians is just too great. Like with Francisco Mejia a few years ago, this is a slam dunk easy pick, he’s being rostered.

Odds of each being rostered: 99.9% 

The Good Bet

Scott Moss – LHP

Scott Moss was added in the Trevor Bauer deal this past summer and appears likely to get protected as well. He pitched in both Double-A and Triple-A in 2019 and could actually be in line for a bullpen spot with the big league club as early as this spring.

Worked as a starter so far in the minors, he has the stuff that could play up in the bullpen and given the arms ahead of him for the rotation, a move to the bullpen would not be shocking, especially after the release of Tyler Olson, leaving only Oliver Perez as a non-closing left-hander in the bullpen.

Between the Reds and Indians, Moss made 26 starts in 2019 throwing 130 2/3 innings and posting an impressive 2.96 ERA. He also struck out 11 batters per nine innings. He did have some issues with walks (nearly four per nine innings), which is another reason he may end up in the pen. He was only 24 years old in 2019 as well so youth is on his side.

Regardless of how the Indians feel about him as a starter or reliever, Moss is the type of guy that screams draftable in the Rule 5 Draft. A team could hide him as the eighth man in the pen or a spot starter. Maybe his stuff plays up right away, even if he doesn’t he could be a mop-up guy in the pen.

I almost put Moss in the “near lock” category but he’s the third add behind Johnson and McKenzie so if the Tribe decides not to cut anyone else before the deadline he would be left off. But I honestly just don’t see how the Indians could justify keeping some of the deadweight on their roster over Moss, especially after trading Bauer for him.

Odds of being rostered: 85% 

On the Fence

Ka’ai Tom – OF

I wanted to put Ka’ai Tom in the “Good Bets” category but despite the great 2019, he still feels like a guy that could go either way for me. After a couple lackluster years, Blaze (yes, his first name is actually Blaze) had his best year in the minors hitting .290/.380/.532 between Double-A and Triple-A. That’s a .912 OPS for those non-math majors out there. He was an extra-base machine in 2019 as well slugging 23 home runs with 27 doubles and 10 triples.

He spent most of his time in the outfield corners but did start 35 games in center field too. He’s not the best defensive outfielder the Indians have in the minors but he’s solid at all three spots, which is one reason I’d be very worried leaving him off the roster. He’s the type of player that may not have the highest ceiling but has the type of skill set to be a solid fourth outfielder in the big leagues, playing all three spots and proving some speed and bat off the bench.

That power surge also pushes him into the “roster” category for me. Triple-A power numbers were crazy this year due to the ball change, but Tom did it with Akron as well. That .370 BABIP in Triple-A is a bit much and maybe he’s not the .290 hitter he was in 2019 but if he can be a .250 hitter that will play at the big league level.

If it were up to me, he’d be on the roster in a heartbeat with a real shot at seeing the big league club in 2020. But…I just feel he’s not quite as highly thought of by the Indians so I can’t put him higher, and I’m not even sure he’s at a 50-50 level.

Odds of being rostered: 40%

The Relievers

Jared Robinson – RHP
Cameron Hill – RHP
Argenis Angulo – RHP
Dalbert Siri – RHP
Ben Krauth – LHP

There are several relief pitchers that are eligible for the draft that one can make an argument for protecting. Chief among them are right-handers Jared Robinson and Cameron Hill. Robinson, in particular, may actually have a better shot than Ka’ai Tom depending on who you ask.

He had a real breakout year in 2019, starting the year at Advanced-A Lynchburg before moving up to Double-A Akron and finally finishing the season at Triple-A Columbus. Between the three clubs, he posted a 3.34 ERA while striking out 12.5 per nine innings in 70 innings of work, all out of the pen.

Robinson did have some issues with walks (4.5 BB/9) and he wasn’t the most unhittable guy (7.2 H/9). His 1.30 WHIP was merely adequate and he struggled once being promoted to Columbus. He did strike out a ton with 97 in those 70 innings. That alone could entice a team to take a gamble but for a guy that was in A-ball to start the year, it could be a bit much.

Cam Hill has seemingly been around forever and was eligible last year but some injuries have kept him from reaching his full potential. A 17th round pick back in 2014, Hill threw 32 2/3 innings this year mostly for Triple-A Columbus. Like Robinson, Hill struck out a ton, registering 48 punchouts on the year (13.2 K/9).

He had better control than Robinson too walking 3.6 per nine. However, he too wasn’t the most unhittable and his 1.22 WHIP was good though nothing out of the ordinary. Neither had the filthy stuff of a James Karinchak though each has shown enough to be considered big league options perhaps.

Argenis Angulo and Dalbert Siri are a pair of righties that have seen time in the Arizona Fall League and have arms that one can see as big-league caliber. Neither appears ready in my eyes but a team looking to the future maybe could take a chance.

Ben Krauth is one of the few left-handed relievers the Indians have in the upper levels that appears close to ready and that alone could maybe force the Indians’ hand. I like him more than the other two, partially for that reason.

Odds of Robinson being rostered: 40%
Odds of Hill being rostered: 30%
Odds of Krauth being rostered: 20%
Odds of Angulo/Siri being rostered: 10%

The Prospects

Jose Fermin – INF
Oscar Gonzalez – OF
Luis Oviedo – RHP

There are several prospects who have been in the Tribe’s top 20 (or even top 10) lists that are eligible for the Rule 5 Draft this year. The ones here are in the lower levels, however, so rostering them becomes very tricky. Do you risk adding them and having them run out of minor league options before they are big league ready? Does another team think they can hide them all year and then develop them in 2021 and beyond?

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There are no easy answers to these questions. The Tribe chose not to roster Anthony Santander a couple of years ago who was in a similar boat to a player like Oscar Gonzalez and he was drafted by the Orioles and has since made the jump many thought he could.

I actually like Gonzalez more than I liked Santander and have had Gonzalez as a top 10 prospect in the system at times. However, he doesn’t walk at all and has only had a cup of coffee at the Double-A level (and it was a terrible cup of coffee at that). I’d be pretty shocked if he was taken.

The same goes for Luis Oviedo. He was a former top five prospect in the Tribe system depending who you ask but he had a bad 2019 season, his first in full-season ball.

He still has the ability but you’re talking about a player that should probably repeat at Lake County, not be thrown into a big league bullpen. Crazier things have happened but this one would be a shock for me. He very likely would run out of options before he was ready if the Tribe rostered him now.

Jose Fermin is the one that probably gives me the most trouble here. He isn’t as high on many people’s prospect lists but he’s now had back-to-back great years at the plate. He can walk a ton (at or over 10% walk rate) and he plays solid defense up the middle. Some team could see the potential and try and hide him as that 26th man on the bench as a utility infielder. He’d be terrible at the plate but it’s possible.

Odds of Fermin being rostered: 20%
Odds of Gonzalez/Oviedo being rostered: 5% 

The Longshots

Connor Marabell – OF
Juan Hillman – LHP
Trenton Brooks – OF
Tanner Tully – LHP

There are plenty of others that are eligible for the draft though few I see as any real threat to be taken or worth a roster spot to the Indians. A guy like Juan Hillman, who had a nice rebound year, could be enticing to add, but I still think he’s just way too far off to worth the hassle. If another team feels differently more power to them.

Connor Marabell? I like him; he’s solid. But I just don’t see enough big league tools to worry much if he were lost. Feels replaceable to me. Trenton Brooks is a guy that has actually surprised me and played so well in Double-A that he’s at least on the radar for me. Though again, I just don’t see why any team would bother with him being on their 26-man roster all year.

Tanner Tully is the one here that maybe I’m being too low on. He isn’t a big strikeout guy but just a solid left-handed arm who does not walk people. He pitched well in Double-A if you look at FIP over ERA (3.63 FIP vs 4.38 ERA) and was similar in three starts at Triple-A. He reminds me a bit of T.J. McFarland who similarly wasn’t a big strikeout guy but had good control from the left-side.

The Orioles took him in the 2012 Rule 5 Draft and he never returned. However, like McFarland, I don’t believe losing Tully will prove to be a big issue. I don’t want to see it cause we’ve seen what the Indians can do with control guys (Bieber, Plesac, etc) but just not sure he’s the type of guy to roster, though the extra roster spot in 2020 may change that thinking.

Odds of Tully being rostered: 10%
Odds of Marabell/Hillman/Brooks being rostered: <5%