Cleveland Indians: Is 2019 shaping up like 2016?

The dominant stories facing the 2019 Cleveland Indians are eerily similar to those they dealt with in 2016. How could the questions be answered this time?

In 2017, the Cleveland Indians roared on all cylinders to a 102-win season, decidedly earning home field advantage in the American League playoffs. Their 2018 campaign ended with another massive advantage in the AL Central standings, though that team admittedly never looked anywhere near as dangerous as the previous iteration.

The 2016 season was the last time the Indians faced any real regular-season adversity; they dealt with a maelstrom of injuries to key players, and it wasn’t until the Detroit Tigers began to falter down the stretch that the Tribe was able to pull away with the division.

Aside from the looming uphill climb to overtake the Twins atop the Central (as opposed to being in first place), the 2019 chapter of Cleveland’s quest for a championship is shaping up in many of the same ways as that fateful run three years ago.

Crippling injuries? Check. A division still up for grabs with an adversary that won’t go away? Check. At least a half-dozen unknowns that would cast doubt on the Tribe’s chances to win a World Series if they do get to October? Check.

We remember what happened then. We remember the multitudes of questions, and how they were answered. And we remember that it all almost worked out in the end. Here’s how the 2019 Indians mirror the 2016 club, and how many of those same questions could be answered this year.

An Emaciated Rotation

Some variation of the following phrase must have been written at least a couple thousand times by now, including by me: The Indians entered the 2016 postseason without two of their top three starting pitchers, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar.

With Corey Kluber’s recent oblique injury, it’s looking like a similar fate awaits the Tribe’s starting rotation this season. At best, they get Kluber back at the very end of the season with minimal–if any–time for him to get back into form.

Moreover, Trevor Bauer is gone, and though Carrasco looks set to return in a relief role in the near future, that leaves the Indians with two pitchers from their Opening Day rotation heading into the playoffs. The glass-half-full perspective is that Shane Bieber and Mike Clevinger are both capable of doing what Kluber did in 2016.

The Indians rode their ace, asking Bauer and Josh Tomlin to keep games close in order to give the bullpen a chance. Both Bieber and Clevinger are more reliable now than the ’16 version of Bauer, but who becomes 2019’s Josh Tomlin?

Betsided

Adam Plutko’s contact rates allowed to opposing hitters are absolutely terrifying in a playoff setting, but it could be him. Plutko is the only remaining available starter with multiple professional seasons (including minors) of at least 150 innings.

Zach Plesac has already surpassed his previous career high of 144.2 in 2018, while Aaron Civale is on pace to soar past his own marks of 107.2 and 106.1, respectively, in the last two seasons. Like it or not, workload management is a high priority among front offices when it comes to young pitchers.

Plutko’s arm has the established track record of holding up over a full season’s worth of innings, and for that reason, he could be the guy the Indians ask to give them five in a playoff game without letting things get out of hand–a tall task for a pitcher with a 48.2% fly ball rate.

If Civale in particular keeps pitching like he has for the next month, however, it’s going to be extremely difficult to justify passing on him as the third starter in a Kluber-less playoff rotation. Civale is the only one of the three with a strikeout rate above 20%, and his 2.23 FIP is significantly lower than Plesac’s or Plutko’s.

One or both of Civale and Plesac could be called upon to provide an emergency Ryan Merritt-like outing, if nothing else.

A Secret Weapon in the Pen?

Terry Francona changed the way bullpens would be managed going forward with one tradition-bucking decision in Game 1 of the 2016 ALDS against the Red Sox. With Bauer teetering against a dangerous Boston lineup, Francona brought Andrew Miller in to put out a fire in the fifth inning.

Miller would remain in the game until the seventh, recording two full innings worth of outs and spearheading a reliever revolution that continues to be employed in big spots presently. Miller was the Indians’ setup man, and the status quo demanded he be used in the eighth inning.

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But the fifth inning was the point at which Francona felt the game might slip away if he didn’t turn to his best reliever. So why wait until later, when the Indians might not hold a lead anymore?

If there is to be an October 2019 version of Andrew Miller, it will be Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco’s progress through a rehab stint in the minors has continued to produce positive news and optimism regarding his potential return.

If and when he completes his inspiring comeback, it is likely to be in a Swiss-army-knife bullpen role. Carrasco has the fastball to overpower opposing hitters and the off-speed stuff to make them look foolish.

He may not have the time to ramp himself back into 100-pitch shape, but his offerings will play well in any situation and any inning. And much like with Miller in 2016, the ground will shake at Progressive Field when Carrasco emerges from the bullpen in a big moment.