Cleveland Indians: Previewing the series against the Mets

Probable Starters

Tuesday, 7:10 PM EST – RHP Shane Bieber vs. LHP Steven Matz

Shane Bieber decided to keep the Tribe bullpen honest by only going six innings in his last start against Boston. In his defense, he struck out seven Red Sox hitters along the way and his only two runs allowed came on solo homers.

Jokes aside, Bieber has been Terry Francona’s rock in the rotation this season. Without him, we’re singing a morose late-summer tune about what could have been.

Steven Matz presents a tough left-handed matchup for the Indians in the series opener. He leans on his ability to induce ground balls, and he is effective with them against both lefties and righties.

Matz is also evidently more comfortable at Citi Field than he is anywhere else; his 2.14 home ERA is over four full runs lower than his 6.28 road mark.

If the Indians are going to take advantage of their 106 wRC+ against southpaws since June 1, it could come early in the game: Matz has trouble settling in from the outset, owning a 5.00 ERA his first time through opposing lineups.

Wednesday, 7:10 PM EST – RHP Adam Plutko vs. RHP Marcus Stroman

Adam Plutko continues to defy the plethora of underlying numbers that suggest he should have an ERA somewhere near 12. Despite striking out next to nobody and giving up tons of fly balls, he keeps the Indians in games and gives the offense a chance to win.

It’s not flashy, and it’s not always going to work, but Plutko does what is asked of him. I’m curious (and terrified) to see how Peter Alonso’s 32.3% HR/FB rate (second-highest in MLB) fares in this matchup.

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The Indians will get another frustrating ground ball pitcher in Wednesday’s contest. Marcus Stroman’s 54.8% grounder rate trails only Dakota Hudson among qualified starters. The Indians have seen the former Blue Jay plenty throughout his career, though, so they’re prepared for his stuff and his style.

Stroman has made three starts since coming over to the Mets, and it hasn’t gone very well. He owns a 5.17 ERA, which is identical to his disconcerting BB/9 rate. Both he and the Indians will look to exploit their familiarity with one another en route to winning this matchup.

Thursday, 7:10 PM EST – RHP Aaron Civale vs. RHP Noah Syndergaard

Closing out the series for Cleveland will be Aaron Civale, a rookie coming off a start in which he gave up a career-high two earned runs in six innings.

Civale has stood tall in four outings for the Indians, giving fits to tough lineups like the Twins and Yankees along the way. Unlike Plutko, he strikes out enough hitters to keep himself off the ropes, and he doesn’t allow nearly the same frequency of fly balls.

The Tribe will evade Jacob deGrom in this series, but they’re getting the next-worst thing in the form of Noah Syndergaard. Syndergaard has authored seven straight quality starts since the All-Star break, sporting a 2.05 ERA, a 56.2% ground ball rate, and a 25.9% strikeout rate in this span.

He rarely issues walks, and when he doesn’t strike opposing hitters out, he routinely induces weak contact. The Indians would be well-served to take a grind-it-out approach against Syndergaard, working his pitch count early and trying to get to a Mets bullpen that is tied for the third-highest ERA in baseball.

Smaller Stories in the Big Picture

Peter Alonso’s supporting cast – First baseman Peter Alonso gets the most attention of any Mets position player, and rightfully so. He is running away with the NL Rookie of the Year award, and if not for guys named Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger, he’d be gunning for an MVP as well. But the Mets’ return to relevance has been a team effort, through and through.

Since they began their ascension back into the playoff race around the All-Star break, the Mets have six players with 100-plus plate appearances and a wRC+ above 100. J.D. Davis has been on an absolute tear, Amed Rosario appears to have finally turned a corner, and Jeff McNeil is quietly emerging as one of the best pure contact hitters in the game. And that’s to say nothing of Michael Conforto’s 10 second-half home runs.

This lineup presents every bit as formidable a challenge as the Tribe’s most recent opponents in the Twins, Red Sox, and Yankees.

The Indians aren’t faltering – After taking three of four in Minnesota two weekends ago, expectations for the immediate future were as high as they’ve been all year. The Indians proceeded to drop two of three to the Red Sox, then split a four-gamer with the Yankees, 2-2. The end result–with the Twins absolutely stomping the Rangers this past weekend–is the Indians now find themselves once again looking up at the division leader.

But a 3-4 stretch against two of the better hitting lineups in baseball doesn’t exactly qualify as disappointing. The Indians should have won two games against Boston, and they very easily could have won all four in the Bronx. Both of their losses to the Yankees over the weekend were by one run each. They also scored 19 in the series opener.

This is not a team crumbling under the weight of a schedule that finally got difficult. With the exception of some rapidly growing bullpen concerns and the question of just how long they can ride a starting rotation comprised of 40% rookies, the Indians have proven they belong on the same field as “the good teams.”

The Indians have continued to get contributions up and down the lineup, keeping themselves within striking distance in just about every game they’ve played over the last several weeks. With their ace on the mound and the bats still sizzling after a 34-run weekend at Yankee Stadium, the Tribe is set to start this three-game showdown with the Mets on a good note.