Cleveland Indians: Catching up after one-third of the season

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CLEVELAND, OHIO – MAY 26: Catcher Kevin Plawecki #27 of the Cleveland Indians is lat on the tag as Daniel Robertson #28 of the Tampa Bay Rays scores during the third inning at Progressive Field on May 26, 2019 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) /

The Cleveland Indians defeated the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday night, avoiding their second four-game losing streak in 10 days and ending the first 33% of their 162-game schedule on a relatively high note.

For the Cleveland Indians, the key word at the end of that sentence is “relatively.”

As excited as we may be about a ninth-inning rally in the home park of the defending World Series champions, it will be some time before we know whether that rally catapulted the Indians toward a brighter future. We’ll know as soon as tonight, when the two teams play again, whether it accomplished anything except winning that one game.

That’s the reality facing the Indians–and facing me personally, as I write a column in which I attempt to summarize every 18-game stretch of their schedule. Cleveland has gone 7-11 since we last caught up, crumbling up and throwing away an 11-game home stand along the way.

I came into this third installment of my column fully ready to write a couple thousand words laying into upper management for putting the team in this position; for taking the American League Central for granted for the second year in a row; for not doing everything they possibly could to build around a historically great pitching staff and a shortstop with a chance to go down as the greatest player in franchise history; for ignoring the multiple outfield voids so egregiously it was almost as though they were conducting some ill-fated contrarian experiment.

But I’m not going to do that. For one thing, that’s just not who I am. For another, any true blue Indians fan already knows who is responsible for backing the team into this corner, as well as how they did it. You don’t need me throwing more insight and commentary into the sea of negativity. No, what you need–what I need, what we all need–is a way out of that sea.

This edition of my 18-game column won’t be about stats or trends from the last three weeks. There simply isn’t much there, unless you want me to be the millionth person to try to figure out what is wrong with Jose Ramirez or take a dive into Trevor Bauer’s up-and-down season.

So instead of weighing ourselves down with the question of why the Cleveland Indians are 10 games out of first place, let’s talk about how they can chip away at that deficit.

CLEVELAND, OHIO – MAY 25: Carlos Santana #41 of the Cleveland Indians rounds the bases after hitting a solo homer during the eighth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Progressive Field on May 25, 2019 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) /

Shuffle at the Top

We’ll start with a tough sell, because the 2019 Indians offense doesn’t allow for the same flexibility as previous iterations. In the old days, it didn’t matter if you took Carlos Santana out of the middle of the lineup because you still had Mike Napoli or Edwin Encarnacion in there. Even without a true cleanup thumper to turn to, I’d turn back the clock and try Santana in the leadoff spot again.

Santana has long since proven to have one of the more disciplined plate approaches in baseball, and if his 2019 numbers hold fast, he will record more walks than strikeouts for a second consecutive season. It may seem like splitting hairs between Santana and Francisco Lindor; after all, their overall numbers since Lindor returned to the lineup on April 20 are pretty similar. With so many other variables being relatively equal, however, give me the guy with the higher walk rate in the leadoff spot.

After Santana, it would be a sight for sore eyes to find some consistency in the two-hole. Whether that means one guy stakes his claim to the second spot in the lineup or the team is able to unearth an effective platoon split, the Cleveland Indians desperately need reliable plate appearances there.

For what it’s worth, as mightily as he has struggled, Ramirez has the highest on-base percentage on the team since April 20. We’d all like to see him truly return to form, but I don’t hate the idea of two players with walk rates above 15% (again, since April 20) occupying the top two spots in the order for a stretch.

Naturally, a shift at the very top of the lineup means Lindor needs somewhere else to hit. The way I see it, he can hit leadoff behind a revolving door of utility players with low on-base percentages, or he can hit third behind at least one guy who is routinely going to set the table for him. If it were up to me–and it very obviously is not–I’d switch Santana and Lindor in the batting order for a time and at least see how it plays out.

CLEVELAND, OHIO – MAY 22: Starting pitcher Jefry Rodriguez #68 of the Cleveland Indians pitches during the first inning against the Oakland Athletics at Progressive Field on May 22, 2019 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) /

An Experiment with the Opener?

If the Indians were ever going to try their hands at the opener movement, they probably would have done so by now. With Corey Kluber and Mike Clevinger enduring lengthy stints on the shelf, never was there a better time to get creative with the pitching staff than in the last few weeks. The fact that they haven’t done so yet does not mean it’s too late.

Since Kluber’s fateful exit in the fifth inning of a May 1 contest with Miami, Cleveland’s starting pitchers have an ERA of 4.92, which ranks 20th in MLB. Indians starters have also allowed a staggering 31 home runs in this time frame, second-highest in the league. For a team that routinely struggles to score runs, giving them up in bunches in the early stages of any game is a surefire path to a losing record.

Interestingly enough, the Indians’ bullpen ERA over this same span is 2.96–tied for second-best in baseball. Even if we eliminate the Kluber-less sample size and include the entire season, the Indians still have the second-best bullpen ERA in the league at 3.15. The reason nobody seems to notice or care about this is simple: the Indians rarely put their relievers in a position to hold leads late in games.

So why not give the opener a try? Until Clevinger returns, the Indians are relying heavily on Shane Bieber, Trevor Bauer and Carlos Carrasco. You obviously aren’t starting any of their outings with a reliever, but Jefry Rodriguez could benefit from it. Rodriguez has a 1.13 ERA his first time through opposing batting orders, with a .161/.226/.268 slash line against to boot. His second time through the order, his ERA is 9.49; his slash line, .375/.429/.589.

Imagine relievers with high strikeout or ground ball rates like A.J. Cole, Nick Wittgren, or even Tyler Clippard taking their respective cracks at the first few innings every couple of days, then turning the mound over to Rodriguez to cruise through the middle of the game. It’s worth a try with Rodriguez, and as impressive as Zach Plesac was in his MLB debut, it’s almost certainly something the Indians should consider on days when they need a fifth starter.

MINNEAPOLIS, MN – APRIL 15: Justin Smoak #14 (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) /

It’s Not Too Early to Trade

Are the Indians one personnel move away from completely righting the ship and steamrolling their way out of a 10-game divisional deficit? Of course not. I don’t care if Cody Bellinger joins the team at Fenway tonight; he’s not single-handedly pulling the Indians’ team OPS up to a respectable level. That doesn’t mean one good trade can’t have an overarching positive impact on the team, though.

Right now, the Cleveland Indians are a team collapsing under the weight of their own effort. What happens when a Cy Young winner and the best fourth starter in baseball go down for extended periods of time?

More from Away Back Gone

The rest of the starting rotation incurs a burden, even if the irony is that they place it on themselves. What happens when an MVP-caliber third baseman suddenly and inexplicably drops off a cliff for two full months? He presses, and so do his teammates as they try to pick up the slack.

I’ve never been–nor am I likely to ever be–in the Indians clubhouse. And I’m certain that the players would never tell you this out loud. But the Indians know they are an undermanned team with a razor-thin margin for error, a realization compounded by the fact that the Twins roared to a 10-game lead in what feels like the blink of an eye.

They don’t need a savior, per se, because there are still plenty of players already on the team with the ability to put the rest of the roster on their backs for long stretches. But they do need some help.

The problem with trying to engineer trades this far in advance of the trade deadline is that nobody is willing to admit they aren’t a playoff team yet. Heck, if they were, the Indians might well be one of them. Take the Oakland A’s, for instance: The A’s were in last place in the AL West on May 14. They then won 10 games in a row before finally dropping one last night, and are now tied for the second wild card spot in the American League (which, if anything, should give the Indians some hope).

There are, however, at least a handful of teams who know full well they aren’t going anywhere in 2019, and the Indians could get a head start on the trade deadline chaos by making a move for one of these two players in the near future:

Trey Mancini – 1B/OF/DH, Orioles (.300/.347/.536, 10 HR, 35 R, 26 RBI, 131 wRC+)
Justin Smoak – 1B/DH, Blue Jays (.376 OBP, 11 HR, 17.1% walk rate, 51.5% hard-hit rate)

Unfortunately, there isn’t anyone on the Marlins, Giants or Tigers (unless you want Nicholas Castellanos) that is going to substantially help the current Indians lineup, so our options are limited for now. Trey Mancini will be one of the most highly-coveted players on the trade market this summer if he continues to launch home runs for the hapless Orioles, so he’s probably not going anywhere until zero hour unless somebody wows Baltimore’s front office.

That makes Justin Smoak the most realistic option for the Indians to pursue if they’re looking for a positive shake-up. Smoak is a switch-hitter with a .933 OPS against right-handed pitching, which would be the highest on the team if he were a member of the Indians.

The Cleveland Indians would run into some playing-time snags between Smoak and Jake Bauers, but the latter hasn’t yet put a stranglehold on any one position or lineup spot. Perhaps Bauers could fall into a corner outfield platoon split with Jordan Luplow, who has been smashing lefties, but holds a .390 OPS in 45 plate appearances versus righties.

We don’t typically see noteworthy trades this early in the season, but I ask: why wait? Smoak isn’t going to cost much on account of his age, and he’s a free agent after this season. Why not grab a decent power hitter who is routinely on base and slot him into the middle of the order?

CLEVELAND, OH – MAY 18: Manager Terry Francona #77 and Bench Coach Brad Mills #00 of the Cleveland Indians look on from the dugout in the second inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Progressive Field on May 18, 2019 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Indians defeated the Orioles 4-1. (Photo by David Maxwell/Getty Images) /

Final Thoughts

Things look bleak for the Indians at the moment. If not for an inspiring comeback last night, they’d look bleaker. But as underwhelming as this team has been–as unlucky as they’ve been in some areas and as flat-out bad as they’ve been in others–it isn’t too late.

One disastrous 18-game stretch does not define a team’s season, at least not this early on. If the Cleveland Indians win tonight, they’ll have taken two of three at Fenway Park; a possibility that seemed as far-fetched as time travel after getting shelled in the series opener.

Whether the front office and coaching staff make the adjustments and personnel moves I outlined above or not, I think everybody from the Tribe’s top brass all the way down to the box office attendants realize some changes need to be made.

Next. Why Jordan Luplow Makes Sense Now. dark

As always, we can keep our eye out for what those changes may be, but more importantly than that, let’s just keep the faith. At this point, we have nothing to lose. It’s not going to cost us anything to believe in this group of players and hope for the best. And believe it or not, we stand to gain absolutely nothing by complaining about ownership and upper management.

I’ll see you again after Game 72, hopefully with more positive takeaways.

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