Cleveland Indians: Series preview at Detroit

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The Cleveland Indians will look to keep the momentum going in a surprising clash for sole possession of first place in the AL Central.

Don’t look now, but the Cleveland Indians are 6-3 thanks to some electric starting pitching and timely hitting. The Tribe is riding high after a four-game sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays, and they’ll look to keep things rolling into a three-game tilt with the Detroit Tigers.

The Tigers are something of an anomaly. They rank 28th in the league in runs, 24th in OBP and 29th in slugging. Yet they lead the American League Central at 7-3.

Like the Indians, the Tigers owe their early success largely to the efforts of their starting rotation. Let’s evaluate how the two teams stack up in their first meeting of 2019.

Projected Lineups

Cleveland Indians (6-3): Leonys Martin CF, Jose Ramirez 3B, Jake Bauers LF, Carlos Santana 1B, Hanley Ramirez DH, Tyler Naquin RF, Roberto Perez C, Brad Miller 2B, Eric Stamets SS

Detroit Tigers (7-3): Josh Harrison 2B, Nicholas Castellanos RF, Miguel Cabrera 1B, Niko Goodrum CF, Jeimer Candelario 3B, Christin Stewart DH, Mikie Mahtook LF, Grayson Greiner C, Jordy Mercer SS

The Tigers have moved guys around in their defensive alignment early on, thanks in large part to Niko Goodrum’s ability to seemingly play anywhere but catcher, but the above layout is a good baseline for what to expect in this series.

There are some similarities between the two offenses, as both contain a couple of established hitters mixed in largely with unproven talent or replacement-level players. The difference is that the Indians are trying to win a World Series, while the Tigers would be happy to win 75 games.

(Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) /

Pitching Matchups

RHP Kluber vs. RHP Zimmermann

Jordan Zimmermann boasts a 0.66 ERA and 0.59 WHIP through two starts. He’s struck out 10 in 13.2 innings. Normally the Indians would be in line to bring him down a peg or two, but Cleveland’s offense has struggled enough that Zimmermann could give them more problems.

Corey Kluber is coming off a forgettable outing against the White Sox in which he didn’t even make it out of the fourth inning. The Indians will hope for him to resemble his Opening Day model when he went seven innings and gave up two earned runs.

RHP Bauer vs. LHP Boyd

Matthew Boyd has been among the most pleasantly surprising pitchers in baseball early on, wielding a respectable 3.18 ERA through two starts. His presence in this series will be impactful for a couple of reasons: he’s a lefty, which will inevitably cause a shake-up in the Indians batting order, and he has struck out 23 hitters in 11.1 innings. The Indians have the worst strikeout rate in the league, so they’ll need to bring an improved plate approach against Boyd if they plan on neutralizing his ability to punch guys out.

Luckily, if the Indians do happen to get rung up early and often by Boyd, the guy they have on the mound is the early-season front-runner for the AL Cy Young, Trevor Bauer. Bauer has given up exactly one hit in 14 innings and has struck out 17 opposing hitters. An emaciated Detroit lineup offers him a chance to continue his success.

RHP Bieber vs. RHP Turnbull

The Tigers will trot out Spencer Turnbull for the third game of the series, and although he’s been serviceable, he hasn’t kept opposing hitters off base like Zimmermann or amassed strikeouts like Boyd. He’s gone 11 innings with a 4.09 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 15 strikeouts.

Shane Bieber was as lights-out in his first start as any team has a right to ask their fifth starter to be, tossing six innings of two-hit, two-run ball against the Blue Jays. He sent nine Toronto hitters walking back to the dugout in sadness. Bieber represents a truth the rest of the league had better come to terms with very soon: there is no easy day against the Cleveland rotation.

Storylines

The offense must heat up

We discussed how Detroit’s record is an outlier considering how terrible their offense is, but here’s the ironic part: the Indians have been just as bad, and in some cases worse. Cleveland ranks 26th in the league in runs, 28th in OBP and dead last in slugging percentage.

The Indians have ridden the bat of Carlos Santana en route to their 6-3 start, but the lineup needs to become a chain. Santana and Hanley Ramirez have OPS’s of 1.067 and .909, respectively. Nobody else on the team has one above .700. Everyday leadoff hitter Leonys Martin has a 41.9% strikeout rate. Jose Ramirez, despite a long-established ability to draw free passes, has walked just 5.9% of the time.

Santana can’t be expected to carry the team for much longer, and it’s going to be a while before Francisco Lindor returns. The Indians need contributions up and down the lineup.

All this said the pitching matchups and offensive numbers point toward a relatively low-scoring series unless something gives.

Best/Worst Case Scenarios

Best Case: 3-0 series sweep and Mike Clevinger is ready to go

Mathematically, it isn’t likely that the Indians win seven games in a row. If they are going to sweep a second consecutive series, however, the Tigers are the team to do it against. Marching out Kluber, Bauer, and Bieber should give the Indians tremendous confidence in their ability to win every game of this series.

Regarding the mention of Mike Clevinger, it has become difficult not to get nervous when pitchers leave games unexpectedly (especially after five one-hit, scoreless innings). In the case of Clevinger’s early exit on Sunday, we should be keeping our ears to the ground for updates on his status throughout this series, even though he won’t pitch in it.

Worst Case: 1-2 series loss as bats remain in permafrost

Detroit’s solid pitching aside, there is no viable reason to expect their starters to out-duel the Tribe’s in three consecutive games. It is perfectly viable, however, to expect that the bottom half Cleveland’s lineup continues to struggle.

This series has the makings of the all-too-familiar “Corey Kluber throws seven scoreless, Indians lose 1-0” headline. Thankfully, the opposite is also true: “Tribe bats come to life in 11-0 victory over Detroit.” What a sight for sore eyes that would be.

Next. Tribe extend Tito. dark

The series starts on Tuesday, and all three games will start at 1:10 pm EST.

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