Cleveland Indians: Previewing the four-game series in Chicago

Probable Pitchers

RHP Carlos Carrasco (CLE) vs RHP Lucas Giolito (CWS)

Carlos Carrasco snapped the skid he was facing with a fantastic outing against the Milwaukee Brewers. He worked seven innings allowing only one run and striking out 10.

Carrasco has split his last six starts at 3-3. His xFIP of 3.52 shows that a turnaround was bound to happen for the righty. As far as it goes he’s right behind Justin Verlander. I’ve said all year that Carrasco is a road warrior, but his 3.83 ERA on the road has me looking pretty stupid for trying to stick to that narrative. I would like to see road warrior Carlos Carrasco make his return against a bad team.

Lucas Giolito allowed five runs over six innings against the Indians in his last start. He can continue that poor play if he would like. Giolito didn’t walk anybody in that outing and he doesn’t have many walks this year. But when you only have 31 strikeouts, it doesn’t make the K/BB ratio look any better. His home run numbers are down but he did allow two against the Tribe.

RHP Adam Plutko (CLE) vs RHP James Shields (CWS)

Adam Plutko is coming back up from Triple-A Columbus to take the fifth spot in the Indians starting rotation. He got some time to work there before returning to face a White Sox team that actually hit him pretty hard. Plutko allowed five runs over five innings with two home runs.

I wouldn’t expect Plutko to have two straight bad outings against the White Sox. But it will take a truly terrible outing for him to lose his spot in the rotation.

James Shields was absolutely atrocious in his last start. The struggling pitcher allowed seven runs over six innings against the Twins. While he hasn’t faced the Tribe this year, he hasn’t fared well against them in recent years. He has a 6.52 ERA in four starts since 2015. Shields’ 4.92 ERA this year is among the worst of starters in the AL. All of this adds up to the chance for a big game from the Tribe offense.

RHP Trevor Bauer (CLE) vs RHP Dylan Covey (CWS)

I may not be going out on a limb saying this, but Bauer is slowly surpassing Carrasco in the second starter role. Bauer is having an absolute gem of a season. The only reason much of the national media hasn’t recognized it is because of a guy named Corey Kluber also on the Indians roster.

Bauer is actually third in the AL in strikeouts per nine innings with 11.41. Bauer hasn’t faced the White Sox this year but he is 6-2 against them in the last three years with 79 strikeouts against them. Bauer’s deceptive approach has caused him to be among the best in strikeouts in 2018.

Dylan Covey actually hasn’t been too bad this year. His 2.22 ERA is easily the best among White Sox starters. With that said, he hasn’t exactly been a staple of the rotation. He did get the win in his last start against the Red Sox and Chris Sale where he pitched six shutout innings. If you can hang with Chris Sale and the Red Sox offense, you can hang with anyone.

RHP Mike Clevinger (CLE) vs LHP Carlos Rodon (CWS)

Mike Clevinger’s numbers are down from last year, but that doesn’t mean he is any worse of a pitcher. The biggest concern is Clevinger’s struggles with command on his fastball. It runs him out of games and forces a struggling bullpen to come out.

His xFIP of 4.21 is the biggest concern as it suggests a prolonged slump for Sunshine. But Clevinger can fix his struggles by simply improving his K/BB ratio. When you have troubles with command, teams aren’t going to swing as much when you’re primarily a fastball pitcher.

Oh look, a lefty! The Indians really like facing left-handed pitchers in 2018. Even the struggling Roberto Perez is batting .364 vs lefties, although we may not see him this week with a wrist injury.

As for the pitcher himself, Carlos Rodon has made one appearance this year. He wasn’t terrible in his return from a shoulder injury, going five innings allowing two runs. I wouldn’t imagine the White Sox work him very long in this game either.