Cleveland Indians: Carlos Carrasco season preview

The Cleveland Indians possess one of the best rotations in baseball. Carlos Carrasco plays a big role in making that a true statement. What does this season have in store for the right hander?

As our season preview series rolls on, our attention turns to Carrasco, the second best starter in a stacked Tribe rotation. He’s coming off his best season as a starter and reached the 200 innings mark for the first time in his career.

Last year, Carrasco finished with a 3.29 ERA over 32 starts with 226 strikeouts and a 1.09 WHIP. Those stats were good enough for a fourth place finish in the AL Cy Young award voting, finishing behind teammate Corey Kluber.

Having just turned 31 last week, Carrasco is entering the final guaranteed year of his four year, $22 million contract. He has two team options for $9 million and $9.5 million for 2019 and 2020. The way things are going, the odds of those options being picked up are pretty high. He’s under contract this season for only $8 million and just like Kluber, he’s vastly underpaid for the talent he brings to the team.

Contract situation aside, Carrasco should be ready for another successful season in 2018. He’s had issues staying healthy in the past and that’s why it’s taken him so long to reach the 200 innings mark in a season. But, provided he’s healthy this season, watching him pitch should be a treat for Cleveland Indians fans.

Projections

The Baseball Reference projections are pretty bearish on Carrasco this year. They’re looking at some big regression for him and paint him more as an average pitcher.

2018 Projections: 3.62 ERA, 174.0 IP, 46 BBs, 188 strikeouts, 1.167 WHIP, 9.7 K/9

These projections believe Carrasco is going to drop several innings from his output last season while watching his ERA increase. Last season with his 3.29 ERA, he ended up with a 3.10 FIP, which should be a more accurate indicator of the ERA he deserved. So he was actually unlucky last year and should have been seen as even better. So I have a hard time believing that he’s going to regress back to an ERA in the 3.62 range.

I mean, that’s by no means a bad number, but it’s just kind of average and not something you would expect from a No. 2 starter.

Predictions

On the other hand, I am more optimistic in my season predictions and would prefer to believe that Carrasco can repeat his production from last season. These are my guesses for his output in 2018.

2018 Predictions: 3.14 ERA, 205.2 IP, 48 BBs, 238 strikeouts, 1.063 WHIP, 10.3 K/9

I think Carrasco can still improve upon last year and reach that 200 innings mark again. With another year to get better, Carrasco is going to make the most of it and post a new career high in strikeouts. Provided he can stay fully healthy this season, all of these numbers are attainable for Cookie. He’s thrown a complete game in six of the past seven seasons, and I would guess that he gets at least one this year as well.

This year is probably the Cleveland Indians last best hope for a World Series title, and it’s going to take everyone playing their best and staying healthy to make the dream come true. And Carrasco putting up another career year will go a long way towards that.

Next: Corey Kluber season preview

There are plenty of reasons to be excited for this season, especially for Carrasco. Coming off his best year, he’s ready to prove he can do it again, and even though it’s been a rough spring for him, once the games start to matter, he’ll be able to turn it on and we will see the same old Cookie we’ve seen before.