Cleveland Indians: Jason Kipnis season preview

After taking looks at fellow infielders Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor, our Cleveland Indians season preview series continues with second baseman Jason Kipnis.

2017 could be described in one word for Jason Kipnis: disappointing. He posted career lows in batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. For only the second time, he finished with a sub-100 OPS+. 2017 was a season to forget for Kipnis.

But 2018 promises to be something different for the 31 year old second baseman. After spending some time in the outfield last season, he’s going to be returning to his regular role in the infield. And that should pay big dividends at the plate now that he’ll be where he’s most comfortable.

Knowing he put up a sub-par performance in 2017, he’s going to be hungry for this season, and that’s already showing in spring training. Through 13 spring games, Kipnis is 18-for-37 with nine extra base hits, including six homers. He’s knocked in 12 runs and sits at a .486/.500/1.081 slash line. Small sample size be darned, those are some ridiculous numbers.

He’s coming at 2018 with a vengeance and with a familiar position on the field and an offseason of adjustments behind his back, Kipnis should hit the ground running for the Cleveland Indians this season.

Projections

The Baseball Reference projections have a pretty good bounceback season projected for Kipnis. They believe the batting average and on base percentage will bounce back but don’t believe he’ll get too many extra base hits.

2018 Projections: .267/.334/.443, 28 doubles, 13 HRs, 48 RBIs, 8 stolen bases

Kipnis’ slash line rebounds from his worst year statistically. But they don’t see much of an improvement in his ability to drive the ball. He finished with 25 doubles and 12 home runs last year, and they predict only marginal increases in those numbers. Hitting near the top of the order will obviously dampen his RBI numbers, but if he’s able to get on base more often than last year, he should see those RBIs add up as well.

I also think the eight stolen bases is too low. He’s almost always been good for double digit steals every year, last season being the obvious exception. He may be 31 years old now, but they don’t call him “Dirtbag” for nothing, he should be able to steal more bases than that.

Predictions

I agree with the Baseball Reference projections in the sense that Kipnis will bounce back this season. However, my numbers are slightly different than theirs. This is what I think Kipnis will finish the season with in 2018.

2018 Predictions: .273/.345/.465, 32 doubles, 17 homers, 62 RBIs, 14 stolen bases

In trying to figure out just how Kipnis was a so bad last year, I took a look at his BAbip, or batting average on balls in play. He had an unsightly .256 BAbip in 2017, which explains why he had such little success. If he can get back somewhere near his career BAbip of .314, he should have a strong season.

There’s no way Kipnis can be that unlucky two years in a row. At that point, it’s not just luck, it’s simply regression and not being the player he once was. But I don’t think Kipnis is at that stage of his career just yet.

Awards

Unlike Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, Kipnis is not a perennial MVP contender. He’s received votes in 2013 and 2015 but hasn’t cracked the top 10. He’s also a two time All Star, and that’s certainly a recognition that’s within reach, provided he has the bounceback that’s expected.

The Comeback Player of the Year award should be in the conversation provided how awful he was last year. But normally that award will be given to players coming back from a major injury and not just poor production. But he’s the best candidate on the Cleveland Indians for that award.

2018 promises to be a better season for the Tribe’s second baseman. Keeping him at his favorite position in the field and a thirst for revenge after last season should bring a season from him that everyone will love.

Next: Jose Ramirez season preview

The Cleveland Indians will be happy to see Kipnis back to his old self in 2018. If he can do that, an infield of him, Lindor, and Ramirez is one to be feared throughout baseball.