Cleveland Indians: The state of the payroll now and in the future

The Cleveland Indians have a lot of high quality players on their payroll this season. But what’s the long term outlook for the Tribe’s payroll?

Coming into the 2018 season, the Indians have $135 million in payroll on the books for their roster. Judging off the team’s offseason strategy and opinions from beat writers, we should assume this is the maximum payroll the team can afford. And that $135 million number will be viewed as the max for this article.

The 2018 payroll is set, barring an unforeseen expenditure in the coming days. The only real additions that are going to be made to this roster now will happen in July at the trade deadline. And those additions will only count for a fraction of the player(s) total payroll this season.

Let’s look at the basics for the Cleveland Indians payroll this season. All contract numbers courtesy of Roster Resource.

2018 Payroll situation

Guaranteed Contracts (13): Edwin Encarnacion, Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley, Corey Kluber, Andrew Miller, Carlos Carrasco, Yonder Alonso, Yan Gomes, Josh Tomlin, Jose Ramirez, Brandon Guyer, Roberto Perez, Dan Otero

Total dollar value: $96,745,267

Arbitration Contracts (6): Cody Allen, Lonnie Chisenhall, Zach McAllister, Trevor Bauer, Danny Salazar, Abraham Almonte

Total dollar value: $30, 692,500

Pre-arbitration contracts: Francisco Lindor, Nick Goody, Mike Clevinger, Tyler Olson, Bradley Zimmer, among others.

Estimated dollar value: $7,085,000

Total payroll: $135,704,767

Payroll Analysis

The Indians have nearly $20 million locked up in relievers Cody Allen and Andrew Miller. That’s a ton of money for only two members of a bullpen, and it could be worse since Miller appears to be on a team friendly contract for the value he provides.

Jason Kipnis, based on his production from last season, does not appear to be worth the money he’s getting. But if you look at his spring production so far, and his production over his career, a bounceback could be in order and will bring his contract back to being a good value.

The largest chunk of money is tied up in Edwin Encarnacion. The 35 year old slugger is owed $18.6 million in 2018 and his number only increases next year.

The only real offseason investment the Indians made was in first baseman Yonder Alonso. He will earn $7 million this season and represents the only addition to the payroll in a winter where players like Jay Bruce and Carlos Santana each signed for eight figures a season. This is where the real strain of the payroll showed. Alonso is a nice addition but there’s a reason he’s less expensive than some of the other options.

The entire starting rotation, which is one of the best in baseball, is under contract for less than $30 million. Kluber and Carrasco are both receiving way less money than they deserve on long term contracts. Kluber will get $10.7 million this season while Carrasco earns only $8 million, giving the Tribe an enormous value on their biggest strength.

But the lineup is the expensive part of the team with the three biggest money earners on the team being position players. Encarnacion, Kipnis, and Brantley are the three highest paid Cleveland Indians this season. Encarnacion is only a DH and doesn’t fill in at first base too often, while Kipnis is coming off a bad season and a position change, and Brantley hasn’t been very healthy.

2019 Payroll Situation

Free Agents (6): Michael Brantley, Andrew Miller, Josh Tomlin, Cody Allen, Lonnie Chisenhall, Zach McAllister

Total $ coming off books: $42,112,500

Team Options (2): Carlos Carrasco, Brandon Guyer

Guaranteed contracts (8): Edwin Encarnacion, Jason Kipnis, Corey Kluber, Yonder Alonso, Yan Gomes, Jose Ramirez, Roberto Perez, Dan Otero

Total dollar value: $72,566,667

Arbitration contracts (5): Trevor Bauer, Danny Salazar, Abraham Almonte, Francisco Lindor, Nick Goody

Total Guaranteed payroll: $83,829,667

Projected payroll space: $25,000,000

Payroll analysis

The big question mark for this payroll is Francisco Lindor. He will enter arbitration for the first time in 2019 and he’s in line for a hefty raise. The potential salary for him is unknown until both file for arbitration next January, or hopefully avoid arbitration altogether. He could end up signing a long term extension and that would provide cost certainty for the Cleveland Indians. But reportedly, the Indians have not engaged in those talks with Lindor yet.

Should Lindor go through arbitration, he will likely earn somewhere in the vicinity of $10 million and that will cut deeply into the available payroll space for other additions.

Encarnacion’s contract climbs up above $21 million in 2019 while Kipnis is just shy of $15 million. Kluber will get a nice bump up to $13.2 million and, while its a $2.5 million increase from 2018, it’s still nowhere near the value of a two time Cy Young winner.

The big problem is paying the big time relievers. If both Miller and Allen leave in free agency, the bullpen will be left barren of dependable late inning arms. The odds of the Cleveland Indians re-signing both are slim. But they will need to keep one of them to keep any World Series hopes alive.

The Indians could use some outfield upgrades and there will be room for improvement over Brantley and Chisenhall next winter. Whether the Tribe decides to move on from them or not will remain to be seen, but suitable replacements will need to be found.

As for the club options, Carrasco’s is a no brainer to pick up while Brandon Guyer, if he’s unable to prove himself as a future starting outfield option this year, may not see his get picked up.

Based on the maximum payroll of $135 million, I would guess that they would have maybe $25 million in space to make other additions to the roster. That accounts for expected arbitration salary increases and club option pickups but that does not take into account signing any of their own free agents.

2020 Payroll Situation

Guaranteed Contracts (2): Jose Ramirez, Roberto Perez

Total dollar value: $10,150,000

Contract Options (7): Edwin Encarnacion, Jason Kipnis, Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Yonder Alonso(vesting), Yan Gomes, Dan Otero

Total dollar value: $84,000,000

Arbitration: Trevor Bauer, Danny Salazar, Abraham Almonte, Francisco Lindor, Nick Goody, Mike Clevinger

Total Guaranteed Payroll: $12,600,000

Payroll Analysis

The Cleveland Indians will have a lot of decisions to make in the offseason heading into the 2020 campaign. A lot of their big name, big contract players have team options for this season. Encarnacion has a team option for $25 million and will be 37 years old that year. My guess is that option will not be picked up.

Kluber and Carrasco’s options are still very cheap for the type of production they bring to the top of the rotation and I would expect them to stick around. I don’t think Yan Gomes will stick around and get picked up for $9 million. If his offensive production still isn’t found by then, the Tribe will be forced to move on, no matter how good he is defensively. They have Francisco Mejia‘s bat ready and waiting to take over that starting spot.

Kipnis is a big question mark here. He will be entering his age 33 season in 2020 and his option is for $16.5 million. If he can continue to produce over these next two seasons, they could pick him up and keep him one more year. But they also have plenty of infield depth and Jose Ramirez is under a much cheaper and valuable contract.

Also, Bauer, Salazar, and Almonte will be in their final years of arbitration in 2020, should none of them be extended before then. Mike Clevinger will hit arbitration for the first time that winter, and should he stay in the rotation, he will be in line for a nice pay raise.

The only Cleveland Indians player slotted to become a free agent that winter is Brandon Guyer, and that’s only if the Tribe picks up his $3 million option for 2019.

2021 Payroll Situation

Potential Free Agents (8): Encarnacion, Kipnis, Carrasco, Alonso, Otero, Bauer, Salazar, Almonte

Team Options (3): Kluber, Gomes, Roberto Perez

Total option $ value: $30,500,000

Guaranteed Contracts (1): Jose Ramirez

Arbitration Contracts (5): Lindor, Goody, Clevinger, Tyler Olson, Bradley Zimmer, among potentially others

Total Guaranteed Payroll: $11,850,000

Payroll Analysis

This is where the Indians get near the end of their core remaining under contract as things stand right now. If all the potential free agents listed above had their options picked up for 2020, they will be on the open market in 2021.

Losing pitchers like Carrasco, Bauer, and Salazar could be the end of the successful run this rotation has had recently. Encarnacion isn’t likely to be here through 2020, but in the event that he is, he will be a free agent along with Jason Kipnis in this winter as well.

Kluber will be in his final year in 2021, and it’s still not certain that both Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez will remain in Cleveland for the duration of their contracts. With some quality catching options in the minor leagues right now, their futures are up in the air.

In the long run, the Indians aren’t in bad shape financially. They have over $80 million already tied up for 2019 but after that, they are only completely on the hook for $12 million and $11 million for 2020 and 2021 respectively. After the 2019 season will see the big shift in the payroll. We’ll likely see a Lindor extension by then, the team can get Encarnacion’s contract off the books and free up some money.

Obviously, a lot of these future payrolls will change but as things stand right now, the team is in good shape for 2020 and beyond. The problem is, their window for a championship will close either in 2018 or 2019 based on the construction of this roster and payroll outlook. The Cleveland Indians need to make the most of their limited payroll space next winter. Otherwise, the financial future may be good, but the future on the field is a little more bleak.

Next: Monitoring the only other contender in the AL Central

The payroll is maxed out for 2018, and will likely be near that again for 2019. After that, with a title window likely closed and a fresh financial start, that may be a good time to retool this team.