Cleveland Indians Roundtable: The Tribe will win the World Series if…

The Cleveland Indians have their sights set on the World Series in 2018. What do they need to do to make that dream come true?

It’s starts off as a simple statement, “The Indians will win the World Series if…”, but there are so many different ways to finish that sentence. There isn’t any one perfect way to win a World Series. A lot is based on luck. Luck that one guy has a career year, luck that one guy stays healthy when he normally doesn’t, luck that a base hit falls in front of a defender.

The Cleveland Indians luck ran out in the 2016 World Series, but 2018 brings a new season, and a new hope for a fanbase looking for their first World Series title since 1948.

So what do they need to do? What do the Indians need to do to win the World Series? One could simply say to just score more runs and win more games than the other teams, and that’s true. But there’s a lot more that goes into that.

The Indians are basically in ‘World Series or bust’ mode for this season. If they cannot win this year, they may not be able to win it any time in the near future. This is the team’s last best chance at a title. Next winter, Andrew Miller, Cody Allen, and Michael Brantley hit free agency. The money that comes off the books from their salary will need to either be reinvested to keep them, or spent on Francisco Lindor to sign him to a long term extension.

This is the year the Indians need to put it all together. But which piece is the missing link? All the pieces seem to be there. But there’s something that needs to happen for the Indians to win the World Series. The roundtable begins.

Chris O’Reilly

With so many possible “X-Factors” figuring to determine the Indians’ success in 2018, it’s difficult to pinpoint just one of them. A breakout year from Bradley Zimmer, resurgences from Michael Brantley and Jason Kipnis, a fully healthy season for Danny Salazar, or an authoritative arrival of prospect Francisco Mejia could all catapult Cleveland into baseball history.

The truth is the Indians need all of these scenarios (and more) to come to fruition in some regard, even if not to their full extent. Zimmer, Brantley and Kipnis don’t need to contend for an MVP award, they just have to play a full season. Salazar doesn’t need to win a Cy Young, he just has to remain a consistent fourth starter. Mejia doesn’t need to declare war on opposing pitchers the way Aaron Judge did, but the Indians may well need his bat in the lineup down the stretch.

The manifestation of any of these developments would be of the high-profile variety, with analysts and fans of all teams taking notice across the league. But there’s one aspect of a baseball team that, even with its ever-growing importance, still tends to get overlooked: the middle of the bullpen.

Of the many offseason departures suffered by the Tribe this winter, former workhorse reliever Bryan Shaw leaves behind one of the more important roles for someone else to step into. Shaw appeared in just under half of the Indians’ games in the last two seasons, and was frequently used to bridge the gap between the team’s starters and their late-inning stalwarts Andrew Miller and Cody Allen.

With Shaw set to take the mound at Coors Field from now on, the time has come for Nick Goody and Tyler Olson to take his place at The Jake.

Given his ERA of exactly zero in 2017, Olson in particular should have the organization feeling luxuriously confident in the bullpen. Making his first appearance at the end of July, he didn’t have the chance to rack up a heap of innings (only 20.0 IP), but he made the best of all his opportunities.

Olson’s efficiency was his most tangible asset in 2017, surrendering just six walks and 13 hits while striking out 18 batters across 30 relief appearances. Diving a little further into his numbers, however, it’s clear that his potential to be a vital component of a World Series run lies in his ability to navigate high-leverage situations.

Olson inherited 17 runners last year, and only two of them crossed the plate. His Average Leverage Index for the month of September was 1.39 (ALI indicates the pressure faced by a pitcher in a particular appearance. 1.0 is considered average; above 1.0 is considered high-pressure). This proves that Terry Francona gained more confidence in his young pitcher as the season wore on, and that he should continue to be utilized in make-or-break situations going forward.

Nick Goody will receive an increased workload as well. Goody surrendered his first run of the season last year on June 3, in his 18th appearance. He also made nine scoreless appearances in September.

Goody could become the middle reliever the Indians turn to when they absolutely need a strikeout, as he mowed down 72 hitters in 54.2 innings of work in 2017. He figures to become an especially valuable contributor when pandemonium breaks out in the early innings of a playoff game and the Indians need someone to calm the storm.

Together, Goody and Olson represent excellent answers to one question mark left behind by a key free agent. They are ready to take the next step, and they have what it takes to become the rarely-seen household names among middle relievers.

The Indians will win the World Series if Goody and Olson pick up where they left off in 2017.

David Gasper

That’s a very good point. The development of those young relievers is big. But there’s one big thing that is will practically guarantee the Tribe’s World Series victory: Staying healthy. The Indians will win the World Series simply if they stay healthy.

Think about it. They have one of the deepest and best rotations in baseball, when healthy. Danny Salazar doesn’t appear to be healthy right now. Carlos Carrasco has dealt with injuries in the past. In 2016, it was really only Corey Kluber that was fully healthy with Carrasco and Salazar both hurt and Trevor Bauer dealing with his drone injury. If all of them were healthy for that series, they would’ve won.

The outfield right now has a bunch of serious question marks. Michael Brantley is a good player, but isn’t healthy right now. Lonnie Chisenhall has had issues staying healthy. The Tribe could have some very unproven players in their outfield should the starters not stay on the field. Indians fans could see players like Greg Allen, Tyler Naquin, Melvin Upton, Jr., and Rajai Davis in the lineup. As nostalgic or as young as that could potentially be, that doesn’t sound like a World Series winning outfield to me.

But with a healthy and productive outfield of Brantley, Zimmer, and Chisenhall, that gives the Indians their best chance to win a title.

The infield doesn’t have anyone with questionable injury pasts, but it includes the big hitters in the lineup. Keeping Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Jason Kipnis, and Yonder Alonso on the field is vital. Again, no real concerns with any of them but a freak injury could happen at any moment.

The bullpen is a position group that is getting more and more important across baseball. The two best relievers are Andrew Miller and Cody Allen. Keeping them healthy is crucial. Again, no real concerns there right now, but as pitchers especially, injuries can strike at any time. Just ask Brent Honeywell of the Rays.

If the Cleveland Indians can keep their rotation healthy, their bullpen healthy, and their lineup healthy, they have the team to win the World Series. The talent is there, they just need to keep it on the field.

Carson Ferrell

Pitching in the American League is top notch right now, and the Indians are no longer the clear cut top of class. The Astros, Yankees, and even the Twins have stacked up. The Indians have to prove that they can outduel teams with the middle and back end of their rotation. Bauer’s second half of last season has fans feeling optimistic about his 2018 season, and the Indians have options between Tomlin, Clevinger, Salazar, and Merritt for the back end of the rotation.

An even larger X-factor may be the Tribe’s offense. The Indians have formidable hitters in their lineup. But the top contenders in the AL are adding some big bats to their offense. The Indians countered the loss of Carlos Santana by adding Yonder Alonso who had a career year last season. Alonso changed his swing and it paid off big-time. He hit a career high 28 home runs along with an impressive OPS of .866.

Lindor, Ramirez, and Encarnacion are the anchors of this offense. Their health and productivity are going to be the main focus of the offense this year. But if Jason Kipnis and Michael Brantley can return to form this season; especially down the stretch, that will put this offense on a completely new level. One that shouldn’t have much concern with the strong rotations in the AL.

The development of Bradley Zimmer and Yandy Diaz will also be crucial for the Tribe. Zimmer had an impressive rookie season before his injury kept him out of the end of September and the playoffs. His speed and strong defensive play last season show flashes of greatness in the outfield. Should that trend continue into this season, along with having a healthy Brantley and Lonnie Chisenhall, the Indians should have little to worry about in the outfield.

As for Diaz, he is a versatile player that has to develop into a better hitter this season. But he can prove to be useful should an injury occur at 2B, 3B, or in the outfield. And that is something the Indians need.

Overall, the Indians will win the World Series if everything falls into place. The rotation needs to hold up to it’s high reputation and needs to stay healthy. If the offense continues it’s productivity and the signing of Yonder Alonso pays off, a championship is not out of the question for this team.

Brandon Kring

The Indians have a solid infield and very good pitching staff. The keys for them to winning the World Series this year will be outfield performance and bullpen.

The loss of Jay Bruce puts a strain on an already painfully thin outfield group. With Michael Brantley and Brandon Guyer rehabbing offseason surgeries, the outfield is in worse shape than it should be.

Right now, Bradley Zimmer and Lonnie Chisenhall will start at CF and RF respectively. The Brantley injury leaves the left field spot wide open. With his timetable to return still up in the air, the outfield could get off to a slow start.

With the bullpen losing both Bryan Shaw and Joe Smith, they face a new challenge of finding someone to eat the innings Shaw ate up. They need to find someone to be that setup man to come in for the 7th or 8th innings ahead of Allen and Miller or as a bridge between the two.

If the bullpen can perform as a tight knit unit and come together to collectively fill the void left by Shaw’s departure, they can go a long way into October. The Indians did not sign a reliever to help fill the hole but they have a couple in the minors with shots to make the roster.

Alexi Ogando, Matt Belisle and Carlos Torres are all non-roster invitees to camp with chances to make the 25 man roster for opening day. The chances of these guys filling Shaw’s shoes by themselves is slim but one or more cracking the roster could help the unit do so together.

The Cleveland Indians will need to show they can be a top rotation in the A.L. They will also need to show their outfield can perform as plus defenders and hold their own at the plate. If the pitching can stay up to par with year’s past and the outfield can hold on until Brantley and Guyer can reinforce the depth of the group, Cleveland has a great shot at ending their drought of baseball championships.

Next: Roundtable on the ideal infield alignment