Cleveland Indians Roundtable: The Tribe will win the World Series if…

Chris O’Reilly

With so many possible “X-Factors” figuring to determine the Indians’ success in 2018, it’s difficult to pinpoint just one of them. A breakout year from Bradley Zimmer, resurgences from Michael Brantley and Jason Kipnis, a fully healthy season for Danny Salazar, or an authoritative arrival of prospect Francisco Mejia could all catapult Cleveland into baseball history.

The truth is the Indians need all of these scenarios (and more) to come to fruition in some regard, even if not to their full extent. Zimmer, Brantley and Kipnis don’t need to contend for an MVP award, they just have to play a full season. Salazar doesn’t need to win a Cy Young, he just has to remain a consistent fourth starter. Mejia doesn’t need to declare war on opposing pitchers the way Aaron Judge did, but the Indians may well need his bat in the lineup down the stretch.

The manifestation of any of these developments would be of the high-profile variety, with analysts and fans of all teams taking notice across the league. But there’s one aspect of a baseball team that, even with its ever-growing importance, still tends to get overlooked: the middle of the bullpen.

Of the many offseason departures suffered by the Tribe this winter, former workhorse reliever Bryan Shaw leaves behind one of the more important roles for someone else to step into. Shaw appeared in just under half of the Indians’ games in the last two seasons, and was frequently used to bridge the gap between the team’s starters and their late-inning stalwarts Andrew Miller and Cody Allen.

With Shaw set to take the mound at Coors Field from now on, the time has come for Nick Goody and Tyler Olson to take his place at The Jake.

Given his ERA of exactly zero in 2017, Olson in particular should have the organization feeling luxuriously confident in the bullpen. Making his first appearance at the end of July, he didn’t have the chance to rack up a heap of innings (only 20.0 IP), but he made the best of all his opportunities.

Olson’s efficiency was his most tangible asset in 2017, surrendering just six walks and 13 hits while striking out 18 batters across 30 relief appearances. Diving a little further into his numbers, however, it’s clear that his potential to be a vital component of a World Series run lies in his ability to navigate high-leverage situations.

Olson inherited 17 runners last year, and only two of them crossed the plate. His Average Leverage Index for the month of September was 1.39 (ALI indicates the pressure faced by a pitcher in a particular appearance. 1.0 is considered average; above 1.0 is considered high-pressure). This proves that Terry Francona gained more confidence in his young pitcher as the season wore on, and that he should continue to be utilized in make-or-break situations going forward.

Nick Goody will receive an increased workload as well. Goody surrendered his first run of the season last year on June 3, in his 18th appearance. He also made nine scoreless appearances in September.

Goody could become the middle reliever the Indians turn to when they absolutely need a strikeout, as he mowed down 72 hitters in 54.2 innings of work in 2017. He figures to become an especially valuable contributor when pandemonium breaks out in the early innings of a playoff game and the Indians need someone to calm the storm.

Together, Goody and Olson represent excellent answers to one question mark left behind by a key free agent. They are ready to take the next step, and they have what it takes to become the rarely-seen household names among middle relievers.

The Indians will win the World Series if Goody and Olson pick up where they left off in 2017.