Cleveland Indians: Could Cole Hamels be traded to Cleveland in 2018?

It’s been a quiet offseason for the Cleveland Indians, but could the Tribe be in the market for another ace at the 2018 trade deadline?

The Cleveland Indians are very clearly a team facing payroll constraints. They’ve had to watch several key components of the 2017 squad sign elsewhere this winter, and despite being linked to outfielder Lorenzo Cain, could not match the five-year, $80-million offer he took from the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Indians may well surprise us all with a trade or opportunistic free agent signing before springtime, but the overarching theme of their dormant offseason is two-fold: the Indians don’t have the flexibility to pull off high-profile signings at the moment, but they have enough talent returning from a 102-win team that they don’t need to.

Cleveland’s hand will not be forced in the winter. Playing in a division that projects to be the softest in the American League affords the Indians the luxury of letting the season unfold and then making moves as necessary in the summer.

The Cleveland Indians may be one of the least active teams so far this offseason, but I expect the 2018 trade deadline to be a different story. And there is one player I find to be a particularly intriguing potential target: Cole Hamels of the Texas Rangers.

Here’s why.

The stacked American League West

The Rangers have the unenviable task of competing for a playoff spot against the defending World Series champion Houston Astros, the markedly improved Los Angeles Angels, and a Seattle Mariners team that appears on the cusp of true contention.

Whether the Rangers’ front office wants to admit it to the fan base now or not, the team is facing one heck of an uphill battle in 2018.

Texas boasts a high-scoring offense, but their pitching staff leaves something to be desired. In 2017, they put forth a team ERA of 4.66, ranked dead last in the Majors in strikeouts, and allowed the seventh-most walks in the league. Some of that can be attributed to the departure of Yu Darvish at the trade deadline, but not all of it.

It remains to be seen where Darvish signs this offseason, but if he doesn’t return to Texas, the Rangers hardly have a championship-caliber rotation. They’ve addressed this problem by adding Matt Moore and Doug Fister, neither of whom has posted an ERA under 4.00 since 2014.

Hamels figures to be the lone bright spot among Rangers’ starters. Despite an up-and-down 2017 campaign that featured a two-month DL stint, Hamels forged his way through 148 innings in 24 starts, and if not for two rough outings to end the season, would have posted an ERA under 4.00 for the eighth straight year.

With the lone exception of 2017, Hamels has thrown at least 200 innings every year since 2010, boasts a career ERA of 3.37, and has 16 postseason starts under his belt. If the Rangers find themselves out of playoff contention near the deadline, they will field many an inquiry as to his availability.

The Rangers’ potential dilemma

If indeed the Rangers’ season goes south in a hurry, their front office will face a bit of a conundrum. Hamels’ contract includes a $20-million club option for 2019, and a $6-million buyout if the team chooses not to exercise it.

With most of the AL West potentially trending up, will the Rangers want to hold onto a 35-year-old pitcher with a $20-million price tag? If they’re out of the hunt by July, it’d be wise to let another team make that decision.

A big-market contender might decide the $20 million is worth it for one more year. Another team might eat the $6 million and let him walk. Either way, if the Rangers see the writing on the wall, it makes little sense to forego the opportunity to move him at the deadline and get something in return.

Indians lack a lefty

The Tribe had the best pitching staff in baseball last season, so the absence of a left-handed starter is not exactly an insurmountable roadblock. That said, the Cleveland Indians aren’t completely without question marks in a starting rotation that happens to be comprised entirely of righties.

The top of the rotation is set with Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer figures once again to be the third starter. Following those three, there is a logjam for the final two spots that includes Josh Tomlin, Danny Salazar and Mike Clevinger.

Clevinger went on a tear late in 2017 in which he allowed zero runs in three consecutive starts (18 total innings). It would be nice for Indians fans to bank on similar stretches out of him in 2018, but he’s still young and relatively inexperienced.

Tomlin is a gamer who rarely walks batters, but his career ERA of 4.65 is no accident. He pitches to contact, and in a league in which home runs have become historically abundant, that’s cause for concern.

Salazar has such a wide spectrum of outcomes that it’s nearly impossible to know which version of him will take the mound on a given night.

What’s more, the Cleveland Indians know all too well what a couple of ill-timed injuries can do to a pitching staff. As the old saying goes, when you think you have enough pitching, it’s time to add another pitcher.

Of course, with the exception of an absolute maelstrom of DL stints, none of these potential question marks figure to cripple the Indians during the regular season. They will be fine getting by on the the backs of the top three and hoping for the best from the others.

When Hamels will really become valuable to the Tribe is at a time when many seem to think their real season will begin: October. Hamels offers the Indians a different look for opposing batters as a lefty in the middle of the rotation as they head down the home stretch in September. But in October, he’s a solid, veteran Game 3 starter.

Sense of urgency?

Many of the Cleveland Indians’ key players are under control past the 2018 season, but they stand to lose two very important ones to free agency next winter: Andrew Miller and Cody Allen.

Whether Indians fans like it or not, the ramifications of their potential departures include a rapidly closing championship window. Quite simply, the Indians don’t have the success they’ve enjoyed over the last two seasons without Miller and Allen at the back end of the bullpen.

Cleveland can get away with slow-playing the Hot Stove season, but at the deadline they will need to ramp it up a notch as they try to win a World Series before the uncertainty of the future sets in. Nothing would send a more resounding message to the fan base on that front than adding an ace to an already loaded pitching staff.

Addressing the obstacle

I’d be remiss if I didn’t discuss the glaring reason this trade quite possibly will never come to fruition.

Hamels has limited no-trade protection in his contract. When he originally signed the deal with the Philadelphia Phillies, he compiled a list of teams to which he’d accept a trade. That list, as of 2015, did not include the Indians.

Things have changed in the last couple of years, and it’s possible he’d waive his no-trade clause to play for the Cleveland Indians now that they are a legitimate World Series contender. However, at Hamels’ age, it’s likely he would prefer to be moved to a team that promised to pick up his $20-million option for 2019, which the Indians almost certainly will not do.

On the other hand, it’s also possible Hamels would like to re-enter the free agent market next winter. $20 million isn’t easy to walk away from, but at 35, he’ll be running out of time to sign a multi-year deal. He could choose to sign a new contract somewhere for two or three years, with a lower annual average salary but more overall money, and ride it into retirement.

In spite of this potential hold-up, if the situation presents itself, I firmly believe the Indians will take a run at Hamels in July. They’ll have to give up a couple of prospects, take on a chunk of his 2018 salary, and fork over $6 million to buy him out after the season ends.

Next: Omar Vizquel next to the Hall of Fame?

But the Cleveland Indians are trying to win a World Series, and if Hamels can help them do that, everything else becomes just a number.