Cleveland Indians: Breaking down the top offseason rumors

Some Cleveland Indians fans may be ready to hit the panic button at the start of this offseason, so let’s break down the top rumors fans are talking about.

Carlos Santana and Bryan Shaw are out the door. The New York Yankees will now be able to protect Aaron Judge in their lineup with Giancarlo Stanton. The Boston Red Sox still have Chris Sale. And did you see the Houston Astros in the World Series? Yeesh!

Is it time for the Cleveland Indians to push the Big Red Panic Button this offseason?

From some of the rumors floating around, you might think so. But I’d like to take a step back, take a deep breath and reassess four of the most persistent rumors, ranked in order of their level of desperation, on a patented 1-10 “Craziness” scale, with 1 representing sound, rational decision-making and 10 representing “Cleveland Browns-level thinking.”

 Rumor One: “Trade Danny Salazar!”

Trading away major league quality starting pitching is always a questionable move for any team.  For a small market team to trade away a young pitcher with a high-ceiling and three more seasons of team control would be downright reckless.

Danny Salazar’s health and consistency issues are well-known. When going right, however, he has the stuff to mow down a Yankees, Red Sox, or Astros lineup in Game 3 or even Game 2 of the ALDS.

Trading away three years of that kind of upside should require much more than a marginal upgrade over internal options at first base or in the outfield.

“But we already have too many pitchers!”

The people who make this argument are probably the same who’d sell a kidney on the black market for 500 bucks and a bottle of Black Velvet.

Remember back in July, when Indians fans were eagerly checking-in on Sonny Gray?

Or how about the 2016 playoffs, when the Indians’ rotation was down to Corey Kluber, Josh Tomlin, and two-and-half of Trevor Bauer’s unmangled fingers?

Remember at the start of the 2016 season, when many fans thought trading away Carlos Carrasco for the likes of Jason Heyward was the ticket to October glory?

The lesson, as always: You can never have enough starting pitching. And keep both your kidneys.

Craziness Level: 9/10

Rumor Two: “Trade Jason Kipnis!”

This rumor has thankfully died down a bit after the departure of Carlos Santana (and the almost certain departure of Jay Bruce).

This is another rumor I chalk up more to fan frustrations than reality. Given internal losses, the Indians are almost certainly not in the mood to lose a potential quality bat in the lineup as part of a salary dump. While Jason Kipnis is coming off a sub-par, injury-ravaged season, to give up on him now and get little in return would be a classic case of buying high and selling low.

Related Post: Finding a trade fit for Jason Kipnis is not easy

If Kipnis is healthy and swinging the bat well, he is a potential 4.5 WAR player, and the Indians will find a way for him to contribute regularly, whether at second base, first, DH or in the outfield. Trading away talent simply to unload “extra” pieces during the offseason is not a savvy baseball move.

Craziness Level: 8/10

Rumor Three: “Make a big splash via free agency!”

This is one I actually haven’t heard too much of, as this year’s free agency class is not especially enthralling.

While the Tribe will undoubtedly make some key moves in the months ahead, a repeat of the 2016 Edwin Encarnacion mini-miracle does not look especially likely.

The most likely—and attractive—option for the Tribe appears to be waiting for the almost certain bargain to arise in the first-base market. The Tribe should be in good position to land a solid, albeit unexceptional, bat on a modest, short-term contract.

While this is decidedly unsexy and will no doubt underwhelm the fan base, there are no trophies for “winning” free agency or constructing the best opening day roster. It simply isn’t wise to overpay for average-plus first baseman and outfielders. That’s what the trade deadline is for.

The Indians—as currently constructed—are the clear favorites to win the AL Central once again.  Letting the team play ball for a few months before addressing needs via trade may make more sense than overspending on free agents the front office isn’t in love with.

Remember how the Indians picked up Jay Bruce last year for the most important part of the season for nothing but $5 million and a low-level relief pitching prospect? There are a lot of first baseman and outfielders out there.  If the Indians are patient in waiting for the market to develop (or even for midseason trades) they will be fine on both fronts.

Craziness Level: 7/10

Rumor Four: “Trade a Top Prospect for One Season of Manny Machado!”

This rumor is a little harder to discount outright.

In fact, it’s positively intoxicating.

Where you land on it probably comes down to whether you view the 2018 season as a make or break year for the Tribe.

I’d like to debate that question a moment:

Point: The Indians’ window is still wide-open and not closing anytime soon, so there’s no need for desperation.

The entirety of the Indians “core” (Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez and Edwin Encarnacion) is locked up through the 2020 season, and, in most of those cases, beyond.

Capable young talent (Bradley Zimmer, Greg Allen, Giovanny Urshela, Francisco Mejia, Mike Clevinger, Ryan Merritt and others) look poised to fill in gaps that will be opening up in the years ahead.

The Indians front office is known as one of the best in baseball for a reason. They’ve laid the long-term foundations for a team capable of winning it all for the foreseeable future.

Given how well the forward-looking, patient strategy of the front office has paid off, it might be a mistake to deviate away from it by trading away one or several top prospects (particularly pitching prospects) for a one year rental.

Of course…

Counter-point: The window on Cleveland having the best bullpen in baseball is closing fast.

The Indians have already lost the indestructible Bryan Shaw, one of the unsung heroes of the past several seasons.

In all likelihood, 2018 is the last year Cody Allen and Andrew Miller will be in an Indians uniform.

While the Indians have other talented arms in the bullpen, what the relief corps will look like in 2019 is a complete mystery. This may well be the last year the bullpen can be a game-changing weapon come October.

If reports are true that a package of Triston McKenzie and a few lower-level prospects could land Manny Machado, this might very well be the time for the Indians to deviate from their playbook, as they did when trading for Andrew Miller at the 2016 deadline.

It will likely come down to how highly the Orioles value McKenzie and other top Tribe prospects relative to those of the St. Louis Cardinals and other likely Machado suitors.

Craziness Level: 2/10

Next: Ranking Terry Francona among the team’s best managers

Take another deep breath, Tribe fans.  It’s a long offseason ahead.