Cleveland Indians: Breaking down the top offseason rumors

Rumor Two: “Trade Jason Kipnis!”

This rumor has thankfully died down a bit after the departure of Carlos Santana (and the almost certain departure of Jay Bruce).

This is another rumor I chalk up more to fan frustrations than reality. Given internal losses, the Indians are almost certainly not in the mood to lose a potential quality bat in the lineup as part of a salary dump. While Jason Kipnis is coming off a sub-par, injury-ravaged season, to give up on him now and get little in return would be a classic case of buying high and selling low.

Related Post: Finding a trade fit for Jason Kipnis is not easy

If Kipnis is healthy and swinging the bat well, he is a potential 4.5 WAR player, and the Indians will find a way for him to contribute regularly, whether at second base, first, DH or in the outfield. Trading away talent simply to unload “extra” pieces during the offseason is not a savvy baseball move.

Craziness Level: 8/10

Rumor Three: “Make a big splash via free agency!”

This is one I actually haven’t heard too much of, as this year’s free agency class is not especially enthralling.

While the Tribe will undoubtedly make some key moves in the months ahead, a repeat of the 2016 Edwin Encarnacion mini-miracle does not look especially likely.

The most likely—and attractive—option for the Tribe appears to be waiting for the almost certain bargain to arise in the first-base market. The Tribe should be in good position to land a solid, albeit unexceptional, bat on a modest, short-term contract.

While this is decidedly unsexy and will no doubt underwhelm the fan base, there are no trophies for “winning” free agency or constructing the best opening day roster. It simply isn’t wise to overpay for average-plus first baseman and outfielders. That’s what the trade deadline is for.

The Indians—as currently constructed—are the clear favorites to win the AL Central once again.  Letting the team play ball for a few months before addressing needs via trade may make more sense than overspending on free agents the front office isn’t in love with.

Remember how the Indians picked up Jay Bruce last year for the most important part of the season for nothing but $5 million and a low-level relief pitching prospect? There are a lot of first baseman and outfielders out there.  If the Indians are patient in waiting for the market to develop (or even for midseason trades) they will be fine on both fronts.

Craziness Level: 7/10